I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “However what is most important to me is the daily shooting star that closed 2 hours ago. My stop loss is set pennies above the top of that wick.” / Short ETH:USD from $197.81 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 (order at 0.97 to close at nominal loss)
Patterns: Symmetrical has worked it’s way past three quarters completion and is no longer valid (just like descending triangle) | Potential h&s on 4h
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,319 | R: $6,332 - $6,339
BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost back down at support levels. Makes me think that this is the most pressure we have seen from leveraged longs all year and the price has gone nowhere. Consider this a bearish divergence since shorts pulling back this hard/fast usually equates in a price increase.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | A chart showing funding rates would be very interesting, anyone know where I could find one?
Short term trend (3 day MA): Today’s candle closed below | bearish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Close below but still has bullish cross with 3 MA = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Bearish | If/when 8 makes bearish cross with 3 then all with be in alignment.
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: This weeks candle has more volume than last weeks. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | 0.382 held at $6,378
Candlestick analysis: Price broke down below yesterday’s shooting star, confirming the entry outlined in Day 244
Ichimoku Cloud: Fell out of 4h cloud and it is showing massive resistance overhead
TD’ Sequential: 4h r9
Visible Range: Testing highest liquidity zone from the last year. Being below the point of control (POC) should lead to strong resistance above. 4h cloud agrees.
Price action: 24h: -0.28% | 2w: -1.24% | 1m: -2.08%
Bollinger Bands: Should test bottom band after finding strong resistance from MA
Trendline: bear: $6,448 | bull: $6,227
Daily Trend: chop
Fractals: Two down at $6,313 | Up: $6,447
RSI: Has cooled off on shorter TF’s. If we are going to get another rally (if you consider a 1% move a rally) then it should come soon.
Stochastic: Incoming 4h buy signal agrees with RSI assessment
Summary: Right now is a time to keenly watch the charts, even though it might not seem that way at first glance. We got a daily close below the 3 and 8 MA’s and at the same time we confirmed the shooting star that was pointed out in yesterday’s post.
If the 3 MA crosses below the 8 MA then we will be in a fully bearish setup. According to Tyler Jenk’s Consensio theory the price cannot trend until all moving averages are in agreeance (Consensio is Latin for agreement).
As long as they are jumbled up, like they are now, then further sideways action is to be expected. However, we are only one crossover away from the trends all being in agreeance and that is something to pay very close attention to. Being in a fully bearish setup does not necessarily mean the price will trend down, it simply means that the price is ready to trend down.
The chart doesn't look ready for that crossover quite yet. The 4h is on a red 9 and a 1-4 candle correction is expected to follow. After 4 - 16 hours the expected correction should be complete and we will be primed to get the final crossover when tomorrow's daily candle closes.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “However what is most important to me is the daily shooting star that closed 2 hours ago. My stop loss is set pennies above the top of that wick.” / Short ETH:USD from $197.81 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 (order at 0.97 to close at nominal loss)
Patterns: Symmetrical has worked it’s way past three quarters completion and is no longer valid (just like descending triangle) | Potential h&s on 4h
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,319 | R: $6,332 - $6,339
BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost back down at support levels. Makes me think that this is the most pressure we have seen from leveraged longs all year and the price has gone nowhere. Consider this a bearish divergence since shorts pulling back this hard/fast usually equates in a price increase.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | A chart showing funding rates would be very interesting, anyone know where I could find one?
Short term trend (3 day MA): Today’s candle closed below | bearish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Close below but still has bullish cross with 3 MA = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Bearish | If/when 8 makes bearish cross with 3 then all with be in alignment.
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: This weeks candle has more volume than last weeks. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | 0.382 held at $6,378
Candlestick analysis: Price broke down below yesterday’s shooting star, confirming the entry outlined in Day 244
Ichimoku Cloud: Fell out of 4h cloud and it is showing massive resistance overhead
TD’ Sequential: 4h r9
Visible Range: Testing highest liquidity zone from the last year. Being below the point of control (POC) should lead to strong resistance above. 4h cloud agrees.
Price action: 24h: -0.28% | 2w: -1.24% | 1m: -2.08%
Bollinger Bands: Should test bottom band after finding strong resistance from MA
Trendline: bear: $6,448 | bull: $6,227
Daily Trend: chop
Fractals: Two down at $6,313 | Up: $6,447
RSI: Has cooled off on shorter TF’s. If we are going to get another rally (if you consider a 1% move a rally) then it should come soon.
Stochastic: Incoming 4h buy signal agrees with RSI assessment
Summary: Right now is a time to keenly watch the charts, even though it might not seem that way at first glance. We got a daily close below the 3 and 8 MA’s and at the same time we confirmed the shooting star that was pointed out in yesterday’s post.
If the 3 MA crosses below the 8 MA then we will be in a fully bearish setup. According to Tyler Jenk’s Consensio theory the price cannot trend until all moving averages are in agreeance (Consensio is Latin for agreement).
As long as they are jumbled up, like they are now, then further sideways action is to be expected. However, we are only one crossover away from the trends all being in agreeance and that is something to pay very close attention to. Being in a fully bearish setup does not necessarily mean the price will trend down, it simply means that the price is ready to trend down.
The chart doesn't look ready for that crossover quite yet. The 4h is on a red 9 and a 1-4 candle correction is expected to follow. After 4 - 16 hours the expected correction should be complete and we will be primed to get the final crossover when tomorrow's daily candle closes.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/