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Bitcoin Bulls Out of Gas as Options Expire

Short
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
First equity options expired, now it’s Bitcoin’s turn -- Low volatility won’t last forever.

  • GBTC broke the daily middle Bollinger Band as well as the important 34 EMA with a daily candle close below.
Hope you had a fantastic weekend. Bitcoin is turning up the heat on late-game HODLers. The market slowly bleeds participants until they’re given a swift, crushing blow right near the end of the distribution process. I call this "boiling the frogs".

Bitcoin price action is slightly bullish-to-neutral because it broke out of a descending trendline on lower time frames. I mentioned that price should manage to reach about 9500 and it has done just that as of this writing. We’ll now wait to see if it can test the June 2020 monthly open as support.

From a four-hour perspective, BTC has formed a clear downtrend with more than three touches of the green channel as per the chart provided.

On the daily timeframe, the key marker is 9426, which coincides with the daily pivot. The June 11 daily candle to me was a clear break of structure with several candle rejections following, meaning the key marker mentioned is a strong resistance level at this stage.

A rejection of the high volume node as seen with the VPVR indicator would drag price at least to the point of control, indicated by the red line on the chart. Depending on how volatile the asset becomes, a break of the second high volume node could send BTC much lower.

The OBV (on-balance volume) indicator helps you understand the volume of capital flowing through a given asset. OBV for BTC has consistently gone down, indicating there is not much new capital coming into the asset.


Bitcoin volume has fallen since May 2020 as the price climbs, indicating bearish divergence.


Quarterly close for the stock market approaches

What typically happens in a quarterly close is a rotation of allocations within hedge funds. We’ll cover that more in the second part of this publication later today, but this event connects to...

June options expiry tidal wave

The June 26 options contracts are due to expire with more than $1.6 billion open interest or nearly 167,000 contracts. The contracts are dispersed across different exchanges, but the main point is that it’s going to be a huge and volatile week for BTC.

That's it, this has been your morning review with TheAlphaTrades.




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