I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: "I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Broke through bear channel. Trigger day on Peter Brandt’s last day rule
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,068 | R: $4,257
BTCUSDSHORTS: Breaking through the trendline line. Within a whisker of triggering my alert at 36,000
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.1271%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Made bullish crossover with 9
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down with price above = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down at $5,432
Overall trend: Long term is firmly bearish. Medium is neutral. Once it flattens / trends up then short term trends will be bullish.
Volume: All green volume (buying) is less than the major selling volume. Biggest volume spike was on Nov 20th and the bottom of that candle is at $4,343. Therefore there should be significant resistance as the market makers look to exit positions from 11/20.
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Long legged doji kept me away from long that I was planning on.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is fully bullish. 4h cloud is thick and currently being tested for resistance.
TD’ Sequential: G2 briefly traded above G1. If you took that entry then TD rules would put the stop below the G1 or below the prior R9.
Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600
Price action: 24h: +2.03%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,847
Trendline: Would really like to see a throwback to the bear channel at ~$3,700 before bouncing (mainly because that would provide a low risk long entry)
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Was fully bullish. Has starting to flatten out and is threatening to turn down. Current candle finding resistance from MA and recent death cross with the 9 indicates an exhausted bull trend to me.
Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 | As soon as we brokethrough the SAR we quickly pulled back. Wasn’t expecting that action.
RSI: 1h has bear div
Stochastic: Diverging in bullish manner
Last Day Rule: Trigger day occurred on today’s candle when it traded above yesterday’s high ($4,343)
Summary: I was planning on entering a long today if / when the green 2 traded above the green 1 which is also when the daily SAR was violated. I wasn’t at my desk when that occurred and I didn’t have a stop order in place.
Both were fortunate for me because the price quickly retraced below resistance and formed a doji. Even though there was a bullish cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s I decided to pass on a long entry due to the doji at resistance.
Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 - $3,750 and that is where I am hoping to build a small long position.
The 1h chart agrees with that outlook and makes a pullback in the next 24 hours look likely (see daily trend above).
If we do pull back to $3,600 - $3,750 and find support then we would be primed to create a double bottom / Bulkowski Big W pattern. That is my most likely outcome for the next month and I intend to position myself accordingly.
If we continue to rally from here then I am okay with missing out on this bounce and I will start making plans to sell the bounce. If we fall to $3,600 and do not find support then I will take a stop in the $3,450 area.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: "I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Broke through bear channel. Trigger day on Peter Brandt’s last day rule
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,068 | R: $4,257
BTCUSDSHORTS: Breaking through the trendline line. Within a whisker of triggering my alert at 36,000
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.1271%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Made bullish crossover with 9
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down with price above = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down at $5,432
Overall trend: Long term is firmly bearish. Medium is neutral. Once it flattens / trends up then short term trends will be bullish.
Volume: All green volume (buying) is less than the major selling volume. Biggest volume spike was on Nov 20th and the bottom of that candle is at $4,343. Therefore there should be significant resistance as the market makers look to exit positions from 11/20.
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Long legged doji kept me away from long that I was planning on.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is fully bullish. 4h cloud is thick and currently being tested for resistance.
TD’ Sequential: G2 briefly traded above G1. If you took that entry then TD rules would put the stop below the G1 or below the prior R9.
Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600
Price action: 24h: +2.03%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,847
Trendline: Would really like to see a throwback to the bear channel at ~$3,700 before bouncing (mainly because that would provide a low risk long entry)
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Was fully bullish. Has starting to flatten out and is threatening to turn down. Current candle finding resistance from MA and recent death cross with the 9 indicates an exhausted bull trend to me.
Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 | As soon as we brokethrough the SAR we quickly pulled back. Wasn’t expecting that action.
RSI: 1h has bear div
Stochastic: Diverging in bullish manner
Last Day Rule: Trigger day occurred on today’s candle when it traded above yesterday’s high ($4,343)
Summary: I was planning on entering a long today if / when the green 2 traded above the green 1 which is also when the daily SAR was violated. I wasn’t at my desk when that occurred and I didn’t have a stop order in place.
Both were fortunate for me because the price quickly retraced below resistance and formed a doji. Even though there was a bullish cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s I decided to pass on a long entry due to the doji at resistance.
Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 - $3,750 and that is where I am hoping to build a small long position.
The 1h chart agrees with that outlook and makes a pullback in the next 24 hours look likely (see daily trend above).
If we do pull back to $3,600 - $3,750 and find support then we would be primed to create a double bottom / Bulkowski Big W pattern. That is my most likely outcome for the next month and I intend to position myself accordingly.
If we continue to rally from here then I am okay with missing out on this bounce and I will start making plans to sell the bounce. If we fall to $3,600 and do not find support then I will take a stop in the $3,450 area.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/