I believe their is a strong possibility that a reversal has finally begun... i have been waiting for atleast a week for the down trend to get between my red and green trend lines. Not only has it got there but I believe I see strong signs that a reversal has already started before even getting near the bottom of the trend lines. If i am correct then you should see the price follow my light blue lines that I have a arrow pointing at for the short term.
Note:that the light blue channel is very short term , should be obvious by how small the area, price will dip eventually while following that channel and create the full uptrend channel
Note:that the light blue channel is very short term , should be obvious by how small the area, price will dip eventually while following that channel and create the full uptrend channel
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So far so good... not sure if this channel would be the upper portion or bottom portion of the new upward trend but my gut says this likely would be the bottom portion and that we actually should run up instead of dipping like i mentioned earlier.
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Looks like my gut was correct, clear breakout to the top of the channel happening, long as the entire reversal is not a fakeout which I dont think it is at all.
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Unless something majorly changes this will be my last post for the day. This is what the possible channel will look like IMO. I still forsee a 65% chance that we run up $100-$150 in the next 8 hours or so and thus make the too half of the channel as I have it currently and make it the bottom of the uptrend instead but if that dont happen then this is what our channel should look like for a while
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Just a quick bigger picture that played a role in my belief of a reversal pending that I have been waiting to happen for a week+
Between the bottom line (gray) and the lower black line is what I personally call the reserve area. Its the area that wicks normally fall between over long trends. Ever since we fell into that area with the main candles I have been expecting a reversal to happen and that we wouldn't go below the gray line.
The reason is because 99% f the time if we breakout of a long term trend on daily chart then we will drop below the (reserve area at a bare minimum, or go up above the reserve area if we break upwards out of a longterm trend). The fact that we not only did not close below the gray line the day we fell out of the channel was suspicious in itself but after 3 days of never falling below the gray line and not even wicking below the gray line it was clear to me that we have not lost support on our run, the bottom of the trend (gray line) has never broke. We simply stalled into the reserve area with main body of candles and I was rather certain we would regain momentum by time we reached the bottom of the area.
Based on what im seeing currently I predict that we will accelerate upwards and back into the main channel (black lines) in between 48 and 96 hours from now.
Between the bottom line (gray) and the lower black line is what I personally call the reserve area. Its the area that wicks normally fall between over long trends. Ever since we fell into that area with the main candles I have been expecting a reversal to happen and that we wouldn't go below the gray line.
The reason is because 99% f the time if we breakout of a long term trend on daily chart then we will drop below the (reserve area at a bare minimum, or go up above the reserve area if we break upwards out of a longterm trend). The fact that we not only did not close below the gray line the day we fell out of the channel was suspicious in itself but after 3 days of never falling below the gray line and not even wicking below the gray line it was clear to me that we have not lost support on our run, the bottom of the trend (gray line) has never broke. We simply stalled into the reserve area with main body of candles and I was rather certain we would regain momentum by time we reached the bottom of the area.
Based on what im seeing currently I predict that we will accelerate upwards and back into the main channel (black lines) in between 48 and 96 hours from now.
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Forgot chart.
