Bitcoins study case

Hello all,

This idea will not only be about technicals, it will have my personal bias included.

Technicals

• We had a 4H golden cross, which was fiercely rejected, the usual action of algos tricking dumber algos into filling their orders;
  
• After the death cross we visited the 1.236 Fib retracement and proceeded to retest the 4H 200 EMAs death cross, which is what usually gives validity to the crosses and confirms them;
  
• The rejection sent us to the previous supply zone which we are testing for the 3rd time and we are apparently basing of a weak descending support line;
  
• The rejection of the 200EMA was also the rejection of RSI getting above the neutral zone plunging it into the bearish zone (there is no such thing as overbought or oversold);
  
• Daily RSI tried to get above the RSI EMA, got rejected and is currently diverging from it;
  
• Daily Stochastic is crossed down and 4H stochastic just crossed down;
  
• The 4H 55EMA is diverging from the 200EMA, meaning we are gaining momentum to the downside;
  
• Volatility index just spiked after slowly being faded into low values.
  

All this points towards a predictable dump into the next supply zone, the 0.382Fib at 6.300$, before moving further down.
My target for this move would be the 0.618Fib at the 5.600$ zone before reassessing further potential.

Now, the million dollar question: Is bitcoin going to make new lows?¿
An historical indicator of Bitcoins bear market is the 2Day Death cross, which got both bear markets perfectly, and guess what?
Bitcoin was rejected before even moving towards the 2D moving average, which points to a fierce rejection and confirmation of said cross and both EMAs are now diverging from each other giving clear signs momentum is building to the downside. Now, is bitcoin really going to crash?
We historically had a perfect retest of the 2D 55EMA before said dumps, but we did not have a black swan event playing out at those instances. But another thing that usually plays out in traditional markets are gaps being filled. guess what we have at the 1.382Fib (3.400$)....

Plan is to play the downside, the supply/demand areas and to take it step by step. AND if we get above the 4H 200 EMA and open and close above it, to reverse the trade up to the 2D 55EMA currently at around 7.700$.
This is not the time to be a perma bear or perma bull, there never was such a time. Let us take it one step at the time and come on top regardless of what the markets present.

Let us Stay Profitable! and take everything with a grain of salt.

Comment:

Damn, 🚀MSTS🚀 impresses me on a daily basis. Again it hinted at this pump helping my decision to close my short at the supply zone. Too bad I was asleep and unable to scalp this major wick.

- we had major volume on the hourly, nothing important in any higher timeframe.
- we kissed the 0.618 Fib and are currently bellow.
-we tried to breakout of the descending channel and are currently being rejected.

higher time frames: nothing changed.
Next 4h candle will decide if I will re-open my short right now.

Comment:

dont like this close, just floating between the 4H 200 EMA without testing it nor breaking the resistance. in case of doubt take your money out

Comment:

Looking to buy while above flag!

If we close 1H candle above the bullish flag I will long.

- We are getting a massive signal in the 2D timeframe!
-TARGET IS $7.600 which coincides with the Ascending trendline from the distribution channel we have been following since mid March.

will open new idea if we do confirm, activate this trade if we get rejected

Profits inc to either side

Trade active:

Shorted at the 4 marker

Trade closed manually:

We just broke major resistance! Road to $7.800-$8.000 is open. happy profits