Cryptosomniac

BTC Guideline Schematic for Wyckoff Accumulation

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Good Evening Traders,
I don't want to go in-depth of what Wyckoff accumulation/distribution scenarios are so I'll be brief: It's a methodology based on lots market data and analyses by Richard D. Wyckoff that shows how smart money works markets.

The above is a potential scenario that if we have found a temp. bottom at $3100, how the next few months could unfold under the larger outline of smart money accumulation. This schematic is by no means an exact count of impulsive or corrective waves, nor is it an indication of exactly where our support and resistance levels could be created. I've drawn these based on a multitude of factors: previous s/r levels, order blocks, psychological support, UTXO age transactions, market sentiment, and basic supply/demand economics. The schematic levels should be adjusted with market movements.

Drawn from Investopedia and StockCharts:
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR .
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC .
Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR ; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.

Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume .
SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume . Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action.
LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume . On some charts, there may be more than one LPS , despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term.
BU—”back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level.

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Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. The approaching diminution of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax ( SC ). These events are often very obvious on bar charts, where widening spread and heavy volume depict the transfer of huge numbers of shares from the public to large professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been relieved, an automatic rally (AR), consisting of both institutional demand for shares as well as short-covering, typically ensues. A successful secondary test ( ST ) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume , generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC . If the ST goes lower than that of the SC , one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the TR . Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as in the two Accumulation Schematics, above.

Sometimes the downtrend may end less dramatically, without climactic price and volume action. In general, however, it is preferable to see the PS, SC , AR, and ST , because these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape, but also a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation.

In a re-accumulation TR (which occurs during a longer-term uptrend), the points representing PS, SC , and ST are not evident in Phase A. Rather, in such cases, Phase A during re-accumulation resembles that more typically seen in distribution (see below). Phases B – E in re-accumulation TRs are similar to, but are usually of shorter duration and smaller amplitude than, those in the primary accumulation base.

Phase B: In Wyckoff analysis, phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (See Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more), and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the TR . Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.

Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume . As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C.

Phase C: It is in phase C that the stock price provides goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR . It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.

The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of phase C can be challenging.

Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume , and reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR . LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.

Phase E: In phase E, the stock leaves the TR , demand is in full control, and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.

Cheers,
Amol
Comment: This entire theory will be invalidated if BTC starts creeping toward $3200/$3100. With such a weak bounce from $3100 and a such a short time span spent rebounding, it is looking likely that this Wckyoff scenario will be unlikely.

Forecast: If $3450 does not hold, $3100 will be compromised and this is definitely not going to be a double bounce situation. The 200MA is also right beneath us near $3100 and if that is tested over and over again, it will break and we will capitulate closer to the next order block ($1900 to $2900)

Worst case scenario price target from the drop from $3100 is $1100-$1300 (the last high of the previous bull market)
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Any updates
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@Ginossim, Still working through it
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I think bitcoin will move as follows.
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Bears case for a 120k BTC price by Dec 2021. Yes I said Bears:

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Cryptosomniac WolfpackCrypto
@bitcoinbobby, Fascinating take. Thanks for sharing.
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This is funny. So if we go beyond 4500$ is the wyckoff invalidated? Just so I understand a little?
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Cryptosomniac ChartsOnTime
@ChartsOnTime, No- please read what I wrote. Wyckoffs are never exact. Nor do a bunch of lines I've drawn hold price action to any certainty. It is merely a schematic that, for the most part, will show you the bigger picture of how accumulation will work by supply tests, springs, pushes etc. Simply put- imagine a year of sideways ranging movement.
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ChartsOnTime Cryptosomniac
@Cryptosomniac, Im ok just with plain charts. Too sophisticated.
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I want to thank you for your in-depth analysis it is insightful and grounded. Sincerely
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@Cryptosofy, Thank you for reading and commenting! Appreciate the kind words
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