Forming a descending triangle pattern, indicating the bears are in absolute control still, and every attempt to push the price higher gets stopped right in its tracks and pushed down towards the support.
When we see a support zone being tested again and again, it usually means it's getting weaker each time the price touches it.
The demand there is getting exhausted over time, unless there is a significant bounce from it (a very high volume big green candle ripping through the resistances above without pause, and not just a dead-cat bounce).
So far, there is nothing of that nature happening here. The price is forming lower highs and that is usually followed by lower lows as well.
Low volume green candles followed by high volume red candles.
Unless we see a strong, high volume candle ripping through the triangle trendline and above 4110 first, and then 4200, this has higher chances of continuing the fall at least towards the stronger support areas down around 3780 and 3660 where new liquidity will enter the market.
All the significant areas and more precise targets are marked on the chart.
The absolute pivot point is still 4365, and for any larger bullish move towards 4600 and then 4800, 5100 we need to see a daily candle close above the pivot point.
On the other side, if the demand zone at 3660-3550 does not hold, then we're likely to see new lows towards 3250, 3100 and 2976, but I'll make a new analysis to cover those parts in more detail if we do see that happen.
When we see a support zone being tested again and again, it usually means it's getting weaker each time the price touches it.
The demand there is getting exhausted over time, unless there is a significant bounce from it (a very high volume big green candle ripping through the resistances above without pause, and not just a dead-cat bounce).
So far, there is nothing of that nature happening here. The price is forming lower highs and that is usually followed by lower lows as well.
Low volume green candles followed by high volume red candles.
Unless we see a strong, high volume candle ripping through the triangle trendline and above 4110 first, and then 4200, this has higher chances of continuing the fall at least towards the stronger support areas down around 3780 and 3660 where new liquidity will enter the market.
All the significant areas and more precise targets are marked on the chart.
The absolute pivot point is still 4365, and for any larger bullish move towards 4600 and then 4800, 5100 we need to see a daily candle close above the pivot point.
On the other side, if the demand zone at 3660-3550 does not hold, then we're likely to see new lows towards 3250, 3100 and 2976, but I'll make a new analysis to cover those parts in more detail if we do see that happen.
Comment:
We see additional confirmation for the bearish scenario.
Previously broken support tested and confirmed as resistance.
Stops were hunted above the wick high (pushing the shorters out before the drop).
Would have been nice if the price spiked a bit higher into the liquidity zone, but this also works.
Might be another attempt to push higher later, unlikely to succeed.
4350 is still the absolute pivot point on the deaily timeframe, everything below that is bearish and more likely to keep falling further down.
Previously broken support tested and confirmed as resistance.
Stops were hunted above the wick high (pushing the shorters out before the drop).
Would have been nice if the price spiked a bit higher into the liquidity zone, but this also works.
Might be another attempt to push higher later, unlikely to succeed.
4350 is still the absolute pivot point on the deaily timeframe, everything below that is bearish and more likely to keep falling further down.
Comment:
Playing out perfectly so far.
3850-3920 will now be a resistance zone (previous support zone marked on the main chart above).
3850-3920 will now be a resistance zone (previous support zone marked on the main chart above).
Comment:
This is something we can't ignore.
A falling wedge pattern is being formed here.
Still not complete, but another bounce from the support line below would make it a textbook falling wedge.
That would coincide nicely with our final target at 3661.
A bounce from that area (3661-3580) would be a good thing to see for a potential flip to long entry.
It would liquidate longs, then bait the late shorters, and then use them as fuel for a stronger move up. A pretty brutal, but realistic scenario.
A falling wedge pattern is being formed here.
Still not complete, but another bounce from the support line below would make it a textbook falling wedge.
That would coincide nicely with our final target at 3661.
A bounce from that area (3661-3580) would be a good thing to see for a potential flip to long entry.
It would liquidate longs, then bait the late shorters, and then use them as fuel for a stronger move up. A pretty brutal, but realistic scenario.
Trade closed: target reached:
Played out perfectly.
First target hit 3780 to the dollar.