Let the market prove itself (a.k.a. don't get trapped) BTC
I see so many people turning extremely bullish after this move today.
There will be plenty of time to be bullish once the market proves the bulls are taking over.
So far that still hasn't happened.
Let's zoom out a bit and take a look at the chart.
The price has hit straight into the resistance zone, and people who get bullish and buy right under the resistance, sometimes get lucky, but most of the times don't end up being happy with their position.
Can we see a bounce from here? Yes.
The doubble bottom could play out and we can see higher prices in the coming days.
However, buying here right under a strong resistance is a bad idea.
Let the market prove itself, and there will be plenty of time to jump in.
4350-4360 is the key level (pivot point).
If we see it breached and a daily candle closes above it, then we buy the retest (it will likely be tested as a support once more after it gets broken).
Buying there allows you to ride that wave to at least 4650, likely to 4800, and possibly even to 5100.
On the other side, it is perfectly normal and expected that the market retests a previous strong support as a resistance.
This is exactly what it's doing right now. It is simply testing that level and hitting right into it (while currently being stopped in the middle of that resistance zone).
It can break above, and the scenario described above will be active (we will buy).
Or it can reject the price right there around 4300-4360 and we will see lower levels, first 3660, then likely 3250 and 3066-2900 area.
In summary: watch 4350 level and how the price behaves around it. That will tell you everything you need to know in order to take the next step without too much risk.
Don't get caught buying the top of the move without waiting for the market to prove itself.
There will be plenty of time to be bullish once the market proves the bulls are taking over.
So far that still hasn't happened.
Let's zoom out a bit and take a look at the chart.
The price has hit straight into the resistance zone, and people who get bullish and buy right under the resistance, sometimes get lucky, but most of the times don't end up being happy with their position.
Can we see a bounce from here? Yes.
The doubble bottom could play out and we can see higher prices in the coming days.
However, buying here right under a strong resistance is a bad idea.
Let the market prove itself, and there will be plenty of time to jump in.
4350-4360 is the key level (pivot point).
If we see it breached and a daily candle closes above it, then we buy the retest (it will likely be tested as a support once more after it gets broken).
Buying there allows you to ride that wave to at least 4650, likely to 4800, and possibly even to 5100.
On the other side, it is perfectly normal and expected that the market retests a previous strong support as a resistance.
This is exactly what it's doing right now. It is simply testing that level and hitting right into it (while currently being stopped in the middle of that resistance zone).
It can break above, and the scenario described above will be active (we will buy).
Or it can reject the price right there around 4300-4360 and we will see lower levels, first 3660, then likely 3250 and 3066-2900 area.
In summary: watch 4350 level and how the price behaves around it. That will tell you everything you need to know in order to take the next step without too much risk.
Don't get caught buying the top of the move without waiting for the market to prove itself.
Comment:
Pullback target reached (subchart posted above).
Hit 4085.
As written above, if that holds and we see a bounce from there, as we're currently seeing, then the bullish momentum is still alive and the chances to break 4350 increase slightly.
Still waiting for a clean break, but it has better chances this time.
If that happens, and a good setup forms, I'd be looking for buy entries.
Hit 4085.
As written above, if that holds and we see a bounce from there, as we're currently seeing, then the bullish momentum is still alive and the chances to break 4350 increase slightly.
Still waiting for a clean break, but it has better chances this time.
If that happens, and a good setup forms, I'd be looking for buy entries.
Comment:
Another day another rejection.
Let's see if BTC is persistent enough to charm this attractive girl called 4350-4365 area, or if she'll reject him again and break his heart.
So far her heart seems to be as cold as ice. :)
Let's see if BTC is persistent enough to charm this attractive girl called 4350-4365 area, or if she'll reject him again and break his heart.
So far her heart seems to be as cold as ice. :)
Comment:
Note that this wedge can still have another wave up before breaking down (that would make it a textbook rising wedge).
It doesn't "have to", but if it did, it would be nothing surprising.
Still, the key there is that even if the price goes above 4350 as we've seen it do today (for 30 minutes or so, and then down), it must not close a daily candle above 4350-4365 area.
If it does, then the wedge becomes a lot less reliable due to the daily buyers likely stepping in and pushing the price even higher towards 4600 most likely.
It doesn't "have to", but if it did, it would be nothing surprising.
Still, the key there is that even if the price goes above 4350 as we've seen it do today (for 30 minutes or so, and then down), it must not close a daily candle above 4350-4365 area.
If it does, then the wedge becomes a lot less reliable due to the daily buyers likely stepping in and pushing the price even higher towards 4600 most likely.
Comment:
It broke the wedge.
Might go for a retest of the wedge support as a new resistance now, and then it should make another drop.
It can reach as high as 4220-4285 area on this retest (doesn't have to happen), but shouldn't go above that anymore.
Above 4345 the wedge becomes invalidated.
Might go for a retest of the wedge support as a new resistance now, and then it should make another drop.
It can reach as high as 4220-4285 area on this retest (doesn't have to happen), but shouldn't go above that anymore.
Above 4345 the wedge becomes invalidated.
Comment:
First target of the wedge reached.
Comment:
Forming a clear H&S top currently with a neckline at 4100-4080.
Breaking that should take the price to our second target.
Note, the H&S pattern has been formed but hasn't completed yet.
Until the neckline breaks.
The projected target is 3910-3860 area.
The wedge posted in the charts above is also still very much valid.
Breaking that should take the price to our second target.
Note, the H&S pattern has been formed but hasn't completed yet.
Until the neckline breaks.
The projected target is 3910-3860 area.
The wedge posted in the charts above is also still very much valid.
Comment:
All targets to the downside reached.
If you press play on the main chart above, you'll see why pivot points are crucial.
Not a single 4h candle managed to close above the pivot point and that one wick trapped fomo buyers right there.
Now we're looking at a short-term range establishing here in the 3860-4100 area.
4100-4150 will be heavily shorted (which will make it a solid short-term resistance).
If you press play on the main chart above, you'll see why pivot points are crucial.
Not a single 4h candle managed to close above the pivot point and that one wick trapped fomo buyers right there.
Now we're looking at a short-term range establishing here in the 3860-4100 area.
4100-4150 will be heavily shorted (which will make it a solid short-term resistance).
Comment:
BTC formed a lower swing high yesterday and failed to break above the pivot point at 4365.
This is generally a sign of weakness. It hasn't even managed to retest the previous day's highs, and made a double top on 1h chart (another sign of weakness).
The volume on the move up was low, lack of buyers followup. Also a sign of weakness.
The only thing that keeps the price from dropping is this 7-day uptrend channel.
That is also the only hope for the bulls to still make another attempt and try to break the pivot point resistance at 4365 and close a daily candle above it. If that happens, we're likely to see price reach at least 4600.
But as described above, on smaller timeframes I only see signs of weakness so far.
The price is currently consolidating near a minor support at 4025-4071.
First step towards any bullsh action would be to invalidate the double top and breach above 4300 on a high volume candle.
Then the final step would be to close a daily candle above 4365. That would be a buy signal.
Until/unless we see that, it's still in danger of continuing the fall after some consolidation here.
This is generally a sign of weakness. It hasn't even managed to retest the previous day's highs, and made a double top on 1h chart (another sign of weakness).
The volume on the move up was low, lack of buyers followup. Also a sign of weakness.
The only thing that keeps the price from dropping is this 7-day uptrend channel.
That is also the only hope for the bulls to still make another attempt and try to break the pivot point resistance at 4365 and close a daily candle above it. If that happens, we're likely to see price reach at least 4600.
But as described above, on smaller timeframes I only see signs of weakness so far.
The price is currently consolidating near a minor support at 4025-4071.
First step towards any bullsh action would be to invalidate the double top and breach above 4300 on a high volume candle.
Then the final step would be to close a daily candle above 4365. That would be a buy signal.
Until/unless we see that, it's still in danger of continuing the fall after some consolidation here.
Next is testing the minor support at 4110-4080 area.
If that holds and we see a bounce from there, then the bullish momentum is still alive, and we will probably see another attempt at breaking the 4350 pivot point resistance.
Below that, we are likely to see 3910-3860 area.
And finally, the last point is 3785-3750 area. Below that it becomes quite negative.
This is a lower timeframe trade setup chart I posted in my channel. Might be useful to follow for the pullback play.
Let's see if they let it retrace that low, or the daily buyers will step in in 2 hours from now once the daily candle closes.