In my previous analysis (referenced below) we have managed to "catch the local bottom" at 3336 (bottom was at 3330) and capitalize on the large part of this bullish move.
Now we see a clear rejection from the pivotal area (4150).
Not only that, but the weekly candle printed a very bearish swing failure pattern.
Supply zone above the previous high at 4130 was tested, the stop losses and the resting liquidity there has been absorbed, and the price not only failed to close above it, but got rejected brutally.
This makes another lower high on the daily timeframe. Lower high after lower high is NOT a bullish structure by any means.
Higher lows mean nothing in a bear market if they are not followed by a higher high as well (as we've seen on the previous rejection from 4130 too).
Until we see such a shift in market structure, the "short the exhausted rallies" strategy will still be applied and is more likely to be effective in these conditions.
Don't get lulled in by the euphoric masses who scream "new bull run" on every single rally that happens saying "this time it's different", unless it actually manages to do something on the larger picture, which would make it different.
Right now we have to pay attention how the price behaves once it retests the 3830-3930 area where lots of trapped buyers are waiting to get out of their losing positions.
A rejection there will be the confirmation and the validation of this trade.
Once that happens, these would be my targets:
1. 3675
2. 3565
3. 3485
If we see those supports hold, another attempt by the bulls might happen towards 4ks, but that is out of the scope of this analysis, as I prefer to take it one step at a time.
Invalidation of this trade will be a daily candle close above 3950. That would mean I was wrong, and something else might be in play here.
Previous analysis:
Now we see a clear rejection from the pivotal area (4150).
Not only that, but the weekly candle printed a very bearish swing failure pattern.
Supply zone above the previous high at 4130 was tested, the stop losses and the resting liquidity there has been absorbed, and the price not only failed to close above it, but got rejected brutally.
This makes another lower high on the daily timeframe. Lower high after lower high is NOT a bullish structure by any means.
Higher lows mean nothing in a bear market if they are not followed by a higher high as well (as we've seen on the previous rejection from 4130 too).
Until we see such a shift in market structure, the "short the exhausted rallies" strategy will still be applied and is more likely to be effective in these conditions.
Don't get lulled in by the euphoric masses who scream "new bull run" on every single rally that happens saying "this time it's different", unless it actually manages to do something on the larger picture, which would make it different.
Right now we have to pay attention how the price behaves once it retests the 3830-3930 area where lots of trapped buyers are waiting to get out of their losing positions.
A rejection there will be the confirmation and the validation of this trade.
Once that happens, these would be my targets:
1. 3675
2. 3565
3. 3485
If we see those supports hold, another attempt by the bulls might happen towards 4ks, but that is out of the scope of this analysis, as I prefer to take it one step at a time.
Invalidation of this trade will be a daily candle close above 3950. That would mean I was wrong, and something else might be in play here.
Previous analysis:
Played out to the script.
A nice bounce into the shorting area at 3830-3930, followed by a rejection and dump towards our target.