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Sorry the noise, but i'm trying to speculate main next convergent zones being
4650ish for bulls and 3950ish for bears.

the nature of convertions and distance from current price make the shorting bet being less risky (and therefore higher probability). So i tend to agree with btcmachine view and speculate a target around 4000k thats is also a psychological support

Comment:

that was kinda fast, i think we may touch there again...