Would have liked to have seen 8100 or 9100, a higher fib retrace, and higher RSI. The MA10 has been passed twice now, and MA20 not looking good either. Downtrend line is resisting. 50% fib retrace was filled. There is enough showing here to have some short bias now. Technically and fundamentally. Maybe a quick pop just above 7000 shakeout this week but regardless, selling some here makes sense. While there is definitely a possibility of another leg up, that would be a market maker move. There have already been a few up legs now on this cycle, and the chances of any more are highly diminishing. Not a good risk to reward to go long from here. Even if there was a run to 10K-11K, there would still be a likely retest of at least these levels here, and probably the 200 weekly avg also. Also BTC dominance has been going down for past three weeks, and total crypto cap has more room to go lower as well.
Trade active:
Update. this so far has played out like i said with the bounce to low 7000s and close enough to mid 7Ks to invalidate the potential H + S . And.. since it broke the trend line.. the next move on this would be to stop out on any retest of 7200+. Any drop below the original price of 6730 ish would be good to stay holding or add. If it consolidates for awhile here then would prolly say cash out for small loss and wait for next move. Total crypto is back in the middle , Btc.D is right on trendline. 2 days until CME futures settlement, so should see a move soon.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed position stopped out above 7200+ , like i said. Tomorrow, current CME futures contracts end , so probably looking at some volatility between now and Monday. Trades with tight stops suggested.
Comment:
From here, Ill be looking to re-enter short if it drops back below 7300 , and/or possibly around 8000 depending how the rest of the markets look.
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Btc 8K+ but not looking to sell. All markets in full blown Risk ON mode, at the moment. Everyone is buying everything like crazy looks like. Brrr
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Okay there it is, the one i wanted $9100. Going short at 9140 now, with stop at 9250
Trade closed: stop reached:
And that got went real quick. Moral of the story here folks. Never sell Bitcoin. Ever.
Comment:
Ha! Never say never, Ever. wow I was tired. Turns out Btc 9100's was a good entry so far. Still correlating with equity markets, so still not bullish yet. Want to see what happens when Risk on mode switches to Off.
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A bit of Risk Off just hit stocks today. So I got in my Btc short at $9021.0 . So far not as much correlation as expected, but will see. If it holds high 8s, and equities keep dropping more, then it will be closed
Trade closed: target reached:
Covered at 8825. Stocks closed down. Btc held up. Holding looks strong here. Weekend could get weird with no equities to correlate too. Also, monthly closed yesterday and looked bullish enough to spring back to mid 9k's or test in the 10k's. Will see
Trade active:
short again here at 9186 . stop at 9250 again
Trade active:
Now price is at 8600. Moving stop loss to 8786 to lock in at least 400 on this one.
Trade closed: target reached:
Locked in that gain. Overall this trade was profitable, but very difficult. The much easier and more profitable short term trade was buying the stop out / breakout on April 23rd around 7500's. That said, I still think a retest of the 200 wma is possible. Current daily RSI is overbought. Its also possible first a break above 9250 could run up to 10Ks. TOTAL crypto is on an upswing. BTC.D recovered a good bit of the ETH money run. Tech stocks seem to be holding up too. Die hard momentum.
Comment:
As expected, 10K tapped for the pre-halving narrative, then a quick violent weekend drawdown. Really the only sell indicator was overeager bullish sentiment at 9800 and 10K. Possible attempt to gap fill from here, but then ready for a "sell the news" post halving. Tough call with tech stocks rallying too tho.. will see about correlation. Also Alt dominance to watch. Possible distributive patterns to form.
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Filled the gap then dropped. Stocks look weak too. Bearish.
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Okay, stocks do not look weak all of a sudden. Very hard to read here on small time frame. But overall still see a retest of 200 wma in play at some point. So that means overall bearish with a decent chance for small pops.
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Starting to give up on the 200 wma . Which means its probably about to make a really big move in either direction. Breach 9K again, then maybe to 7k or lower. A break above 10.5-11K, would turn this wildly bullish.
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And the big move cometh. about 950 gain to hit 10,400 . Same story tho. If no continuation up from here, expecting 7K or lower. Break high 10s, and I will give up on the 200 wma retest.
Comment:
Whack! 1000 drop, faster then the gain. BTC.D drop again. Looks like distributing
Trade active:
Still topped was 10-11K . Looking like rollover. If so, looking for that 200 wma again. Maybe 7k or lower