So previous trade setup was:
SHORT: 9190, 9290, 9340
SL: 9412 (slightly above the 2019/2020 ATH downtrendline which was around ~9350)
What happened?
Orders filled.
Started dumping.
Reversed and pumped.
Reached the ATH trendline and BROKE it, printing 1h and 2h candle close ABOVE it.
My previous trade was heavily relying on the ATH downtrend line hammering it down. Since this broke on a 2h candle, I believe it was bullish enough of a signal to de-risk the trade and exit out of it.
I then decided to manually exit. Waited for a small retracement. Closed trade manually for about -0.3% LOSS.
Could have actually waited, and closed for profit. It went down as far as 9234 which would have actually been around 0.5% profit had I closed there.
No problem though. A failed trade = LOSS no matter what, in my book. That trade was a LOSS.
Could it still dump?
Yes.
However bullish signals:
* broke ATH 2019/2020 downtrend line, with 1h and 2h CLOSE.
* altcoins started reacting, and going up with some volume
Right now it is basically in limbo zone.
Altcoins have not reacted strongly. Some have (XRP), others havent (ETH).
It is trading at 9250 right now, below 2/3rd of my shorts, so I could still be on short and in profit, but I closed that trade and am waiting now for more confirmation.
In the chart there are trade setups for both scenarios I am looking at.
Both long and short.
Chart explains itself.
Breaking the 9485 previous high is a big bullish signal, as it would also be breaking into 9400 horizontal resistance, and that should signal continuation to 9.6k and possibly 10.2k (more likely).
NOT breaking the 9485, or even getting hammered down by it, would signal the dump, and we would short it again, with a SL right above it (9512 - I like arbitrary numbers that dont seem to be able to get wicked out).
Right now NO TRADE ACTIVE.
SHORT: 9190, 9290, 9340
SL: 9412 (slightly above the 2019/2020 ATH downtrendline which was around ~9350)
What happened?
Orders filled.
Started dumping.
Reversed and pumped.
Reached the ATH trendline and BROKE it, printing 1h and 2h candle close ABOVE it.
My previous trade was heavily relying on the ATH downtrend line hammering it down. Since this broke on a 2h candle, I believe it was bullish enough of a signal to de-risk the trade and exit out of it.
I then decided to manually exit. Waited for a small retracement. Closed trade manually for about -0.3% LOSS.
Could have actually waited, and closed for profit. It went down as far as 9234 which would have actually been around 0.5% profit had I closed there.
No problem though. A failed trade = LOSS no matter what, in my book. That trade was a LOSS.
Could it still dump?
Yes.
However bullish signals:
* broke ATH 2019/2020 downtrend line, with 1h and 2h CLOSE.
* altcoins started reacting, and going up with some volume
Right now it is basically in limbo zone.
Altcoins have not reacted strongly. Some have (XRP), others havent (ETH).
It is trading at 9250 right now, below 2/3rd of my shorts, so I could still be on short and in profit, but I closed that trade and am waiting now for more confirmation.
In the chart there are trade setups for both scenarios I am looking at.
Both long and short.
Chart explains itself.
Breaking the 9485 previous high is a big bullish signal, as it would also be breaking into 9400 horizontal resistance, and that should signal continuation to 9.6k and possibly 10.2k (more likely).
NOT breaking the 9485, or even getting hammered down by it, would signal the dump, and we would short it again, with a SL right above it (9512 - I like arbitrary numbers that dont seem to be able to get wicked out).
Right now NO TRADE ACTIVE.
Comment:
BTC has now printed FOUR 1h candles bouncing off 9200 as support.
it has closed a 2h candle, a 3h candle, and has 50mins left to print a 4h candle.
i think it is safe to say if we continue to bounce off 9200 on 4h candle (closing in ~50m) then we can look for long position and hopefully grab it below 9250.
we are now in trading zone 9200-9600 but still need to overcome previous high wick of 9485 which could be a rejection.
it has closed a 2h candle, a 3h candle, and has 50mins left to print a 4h candle.
i think it is safe to say if we continue to bounce off 9200 on 4h candle (closing in ~50m) then we can look for long position and hopefully grab it below 9250.
we are now in trading zone 9200-9600 but still need to overcome previous high wick of 9485 which could be a rejection.
Comment:
as we saw, a major corrective candle that dumped us to low 90xx zone and quickly bounced back above 92xx proved yet again that there is:
A) heavy resistance below 95xx
B) that 92xx has turned support
so now we are in a tight zone between 92xx and 95xx where bulls are trying to break previous high (9485) and horizontal (95xx-96xx) and head up towards 10k zone.
given the sheer force of bouncing back above 92xx i think its safe to say that we are going to be supported here at 92xx for the next few days.
SWING TRADES should look at LONG from anywhere below 9250 and look at 9450 as exit point. if you believe that kind of swing is even worth it.... (maximum 200 points with risk of ~50-100).
I am not swing trading this zone.
I'm sitting out right now.
I am holding hard ETH at 50% account just to have a hedge against uptrend which I can short should BTC close a 4h or higher TF below 92xx support.
Otherwise all cash right now.
A) heavy resistance below 95xx
B) that 92xx has turned support
so now we are in a tight zone between 92xx and 95xx where bulls are trying to break previous high (9485) and horizontal (95xx-96xx) and head up towards 10k zone.
given the sheer force of bouncing back above 92xx i think its safe to say that we are going to be supported here at 92xx for the next few days.
SWING TRADES should look at LONG from anywhere below 9250 and look at 9450 as exit point. if you believe that kind of swing is even worth it.... (maximum 200 points with risk of ~50-100).
I am not swing trading this zone.
I'm sitting out right now.
I am holding hard ETH at 50% account just to have a hedge against uptrend which I can short should BTC close a 4h or higher TF below 92xx support.
Otherwise all cash right now.
Comment:
Trade active:
woke up to alerts that BTC had passed 9600
LOL
trade active triggered entry around 9529
climb climb gogogo!
10.2k is highly probable.
will exit 50% there to lock in profits.
i dont know what the hell to think about btc right now other than raising trailing SL and take profit at each major resistance zone, rebuy the dips.
there is no signal of slowing down here. FOMO is real.
LOL
trade active triggered entry around 9529
climb climb gogogo!
10.2k is highly probable.
will exit 50% there to lock in profits.
i dont know what the hell to think about btc right now other than raising trailing SL and take profit at each major resistance zone, rebuy the dips.
there is no signal of slowing down here. FOMO is real.
Comment:
keep your SL about 200 below BTC to avoid getting wicked out on retests. they are deep.
300 even safer.
right now I raise my SL to break even 9550 (slightly higher, but with tx fees thats about even).
it retraces quite deep to pickup more orders in the book though, and miners are offloading quite allot right now.
300 even safer.
right now I raise my SL to break even 9550 (slightly higher, but with tx fees thats about even).
it retraces quite deep to pickup more orders in the book though, and miners are offloading quite allot right now.
going for a third 1h candle and bouncing off it again right now.
it should be pretty close to closing a 4h candle that bounces off 9200 support.
so we have established an s/r flip of 9200 turned support most likely within the next 1-2h.
It did break down to as low as 9078 on one chart.
so actually could have exited those shorts for about 2% profit!!! grrrr :D