Bitcoin Daily Update (day 247)
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “...everyone foaming at the mouth after the daily candle closed +1.5%. That was an unimpressive move and it came on low volume” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order 0.97 to close
Patterns: Testing phase 2 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 - $6,380 | R: $6,400 - $6,427
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still falling toward support | TD’ shows two days left to the downside
Funding Rates: Longs will pay shorts 0.05% | This is what I am waiting to see...longs get very expensive and btcusdshorts’ at support
Short term trend (3 day MA): Cross above 8 & 34 with price below = neutral
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Starting to turn up, crossing 34 would be very important for bulls
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down, one of the main reasons I am a bear and look for shorts in this area
Overall trend: bearsih
Volume: If you thought yesterday’s was unimpressive then todays was even less so (below MA)
FIB’s: (Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
analysis: Daily | 12h both right on the trend resistance
Cloud: Tried to re enter 12h cloud and failed
TD’ Sequential: 12h has a red 1 and 2 that were very close to being 7’s and 8’s. If they would have close a few dollar higher then this topped on a 24 hours ago.
Visible Range: Still below the point of control ( )
Price action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -0.2% | 1m: -2.74%
Bands: Still hasn’t tested top band
Trendline: All eyes on the resistance from the bear trend. If we don’t breakthrough on high then I expect phase 2 to break down.
Fractals: Last move didn’t break up , making that move even less impressive
RSI: Watching to see if daily stays > 50
Stochastic: Daily still has room to the upside
Summary: That pump did not break the most recent up , it came on low and we failed to even test the top of the daily . Longs are getting expensive and BTCUSDSHORTS’ are falling towards support.
The daily candle also just closed a . In my mind it is highly likely that the bear is going to hold as resistance and that is going to lead to a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave .
If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.
All of that being said I still think it is a little too early to re enter my short position. It looks like there is still plenty of support left from $6,360 - $6,380 and I am going to wait to see how the price reacts when/if we retest it.
Another 24 - 48 hours of consolidating inside a ~$50 range seems most likely from here. That should give us plenty of time to watch how the traditional markets react to the election.