My First Published Analysis: Long BTC to 4K (BitMEX: XBTUSD)

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Trend Analysis:
  • We've dumped to the 3600 support which has been a strong support previously. Volume has been decreasing on the way down - especially noticeable on smaller timeframes - this indicating that bearish momentum is dying and a short-term reversal may be likely.

  • Histogram is also upticking on smaller timeframes. A bullish crossover on the MACD could deliver the start of an uptrend.

  • Finally, an elliot wave analysis shows that we may be looking to complete a 5th wave, which would conclude the B wave and begin a C wave up to ~4600 based on fibonacci extension .

Trade Setup:
At the first sight of a confirmed failure to break the 3600 support, I intend to enter a long placing a stop-loss at ~3500 and aiming to close the trade at 4000, the 0.382 fib extension line. This gives a nice risk:reward ratio of 3.33 to 1.

Would love any feedback or counter-opinions on this analysis. You can follow me on Twitter @UdotongE
Trade closed manually: Trade playing out nicely. Price just bounced off the .50 fib retracement line (based on local 4200 top to local 3600 bottom). I closed 50% of my position at the .382 and another 25% at the .50. I will close the last 25% at the golden ratio, which coincides with my above-mentioned 4K.

Twitter: @UdotongE


Forgot to mention the 0.618 fib retracement line from the (3100 low to the local 4200 top) is providing strong support at 3600. High likelihood for a bounce here at the golden ratio.
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