Bitcoin Daily Update (day 231)

I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time

Previous analysis / position: Closely watching trend and horizontal resistance on USDT:USD’ and wanting to see it stabilize before re entering shorts / Short USDT:USD at 0.968 | Short ETH:USD from $198.58 and short BTC' from $6,367
Patterns: Descending triangle | 12h rounded top / button top
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,355 | R: $6,400`
BTCUSDSHORTS: Approaching top of triangle
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and starting to resist - bear
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Closed below and starting to resist - bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Angling down with price below - bear
Overall trend: When all three trends line up it’s time to look for a position
Volume: When volume?
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Today closed a bearish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: “Best entries occur when all the metrics flip at the same time” Watch 4h cloud. It is threatening a bearish TK’ cross and a bearish kumo twist. Bottom of cloud = 6,300.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R2 falls below R1 at $6,039 on weekly. 1D is price flipping | 12h red 2 closed below a red 1. Red 3 is currently an inside bar.
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,242 - $6,349 with one month look back
Price action: 12h: -0.65% | 24h: -0.66% | 2w: -2.36% | 1m: +1.04%
Bollinger Bands: Resisting below daily and weekly MA, watching for it to fall below 12h MA
Trendline: Bottom of descending triangle = $6,100 | Top of triangle = $6,700
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most time frames
Stochastic: Making bearish re cross on daily with double top | 3d: bullish | W: Bearish

Possible Entries: I really like to build a position when all of the trends (short / medium / long) are moving in the same direction and after today’s close they are all bearish as far as I am concerned.

I also really like to see my major indicators in aggreeance. That is what we are getting today with the moving averages, TD’ Sequential, Ichimoku Clouds, Bollinger Bands and daily Stochastic.
It has been months since I have seen this much confluence in my daily process with these indicators.

Furthermore, USDT:USD' has broken through the downtrend that had me worried and I will likely close that short position out on the next test of support.

Possible Entries: Weekly red 2 falls below the red 1 at $6,039 on weekly | 12h red 2 closed below a red 1 | Daily is price flipping, keep an eye out for a red 2 below today | 4h Ichimoku cloud is threatening a bearish TK’ cross and a bearish kumo twist. Bottom of cloud = 6,300 | There is also a gap in volume below $6,349 with 1 month look back (good place to set stop order)

It can be hard not to get over excited and smash the market sell / short button when all of the indicators would suggest that is a good idea. Take a deep breath and write down your plan. What is your: time horizon, profit target, maximum desired exposure, and where will your stop loss be?

Take the maximum desired position size and divide it by 3. Enter that portion today and then wait until tomorrow to add. That is what I am doing. This will minimize losses when the position moves against you and still leave you with plenty of time to get fully positioned.

This next move is going to be big, you can afford to be as careful as possible when building your position.

Good luck!

Comment:

Got a last minute invite to a bbq and may not be able to do the daily update today (day 232). Have been keeping my eye on the 4 hour TD Sequential , along with the Stochastic buy signal I thought there was a good chance of a bounce. However as soon as it peaked out of the 4h symmetrical triangle it was shot down pretty quickly. Everything is still looking good for my short positions.

Next thing to watch for is a breakdown of $6,350