Bitcoin Daily Update (day 203)
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then now is not a good time to enter. There was plenty of time to build short positions over the last couple days. If you passed on that opportunity and want to short now then you ought to seriously reconsider your approach.” / / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,235 | R: $6,375
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pull back after breaking out of . Current candle is threatening to retrace the prior .
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0209%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.55% | 26 = -3.17%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -4.71 % (angling down) | 128 = -8.95%
Volume: Still waiting on spike to solidify the next move
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,377 | 0.886 = $6,248 | 1.618 = $5,330
analysis: 1h has been confirmed
Cloud: Cloud is thinning and indicates a kumo twist is likely. Tenkan-Sen at $6,736 should act as resistance
TD’ Sequential: Daily on a R2 = R1. 12h on R4 after bouncing from TDST. 4h on G3 > G2.
Visible Range: Currently testing point of control with a 6 month lookback. Area is expecting to becoming very strong resistance.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.76% | 24h = +1.56% | 1w = +1.35% | 2w = -4.77% | 1m = -2.42%
Bands: Expected to retest MA at $6,628 after bouncing from bottom band.
Trendline: Connecting 9/5 to 9/17 could be the top end of the next down trend (red dotted)
Daily Trend: Chop, moving down slightly
Fractals: Up = $6,582 | Down = $6,093
On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s
ADX: No trend present
Chaikin Money Flow: Daily has created a lower low for a bear div’
(30 setting): W = 48.95 | D = 45.44 is also consolidating within a triangle
Stoch: Weekly has been consolidating inside a triangle and %K just made a significant move downward.
Summary: This bounce should provide a good opportunity to build a short, if you are not already in one. There is major resistance from $6,375 - $6,667 that is coming from: Visible Range point of control with 1m - 1y lookback, daily Tenken-Sen, MA, 50 day MA as well as an up .
That is more than enough to provide a high probability short sale entry. Furthermore the risk:reward is very favorable when using at $5,000 target or lower (I am looking at $4,200 - $4,500).
As has been the case for months I am watching BTC’ and trading alts.
“When long, long the strongest. When short, short the weakest”
ETH:USD is back at my entry price of $211.96 and has it’s own up at $226. I am setting my stop losses slightly above $230 to try and avoid any traps and that provides a very favorable risk reward. My target remains $126. ETH:BTC is also testing major resistance and could be providing an attractive short sale entry as well.
I also have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read that analysis.