BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
A lot of eyes are focused on this huge inverse head and shoulders we are currently printing.
While everyone can agree the pump will be massive if it completes, I'm here to offer a different scenario.

Bitcoin just printed a doji on the daily.
Short body, low head, huge shadow.
Normally this would mean we are headed lower.

The other day I was watching a symmetrical triangle, and was able to catch the $300 pump Bitcoin created for a higher high.
Since then, I have noticed that the same resistance the symmetrical triangle was in is the resistance we are facing now.

The 2h just printed hidden bearish divergence.
The 4h is showing regular bearish divergence.

This is a great short opportunity.
Conservative target is the .618 at $3,551.
R/R is 3.16 with a stop just above the 50MA on the 4h.

Aggressive target lies around $3,460.
That is the target of the descending triangle we are printing. R/R is 4.5.

If we hold support above $3,400 chances become fairly high we will complete the inverse HS. Target for that is $5,200 or so.
Comment:
Yiiiiiiiiikes what a rejection.
Down we go ;)
Comment:
Currently, we are sitting at the .618 of the current swing.
This support test is now the 3rd since we began said previous swing.
How the market reacts here will likely define where we're going.

The .786 lies at around $3,715. It is arguably the last line of defense the bulls have to push for a new higher high, or the market will react.

A lot of people are believing this could be a double bottom, but I find it hard to believe for a number of reasons.
Bearish divergences showing.
Strong rejection on an attempt to *yet again* break the triangle.
We just wicked to within $10 of the .786.
If we go back down again to find support, it will likely be there. If we hit the .786 and are still unable to hold, we will test our low at $3,670.
If we start dumping past $3,700 with momentum, that will not hold.
Comment: If you are following this idea, move your stop to your buy in and let it ride.
You could take partial profits here, depending on your risk management.
I would say no more than 33%, then move your stop to entry.
Comment:
Nice little 3% move right there so far. I was watching this happen live, and it looked to me like a decent amount of shorts closed around the $3,700 area.
I still think we have further to go, but this is a great time to lower your short into some pretty decent profit.
Comment: lower your stop*
Trade closed: target reached: Sorry for not being around to update the idea.
Position on my end would of been closed just above the .618 at around $3,580.
PS- I don't trust this pump.
Nice post. I'm nit shorting but it does seem to look very weak and likely to roll over
Reply
What you've posted doesn't look like a head and shoulders to me. Because it's not come from a low point but bouncing along a horizontal. For a head and shoulders the first shoulder is formed from a much lower position, and will finish there. Yours is just forming on the neck line.
Reply
mc_peewee pinski121
@pinski121, I don't know what you saw that led you to believe I saw a head and shoulders anywhere other than the inverse one...but I have no clue what you're even talking about.
+2 Reply
dRends35 mc_peewee
@mc_peewee, Lol
Reply
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