Today I have taken time to zoom out and take a look at Bitcoin from a larger term scale. I go into this analysis with zero bias of how I expect Bitcoin to behave, and solely acknowledge truth from the chart.
Firstly, Bitcoin is being held down by the trend line resistance resistance established on the 29th of November, and then confirmed from the touches on the 24th of December and 8th of January. This is a valid and strong resistance trend line, which until broken keeps the macro trend bearish with continuous lower highs. The lower highs have been a theme for Bitcoin throughout 2018 and now continuing into 2019. A metric for helping me decide when we may be reaching the end of the bear market will be the first higher high and higher low become pained on the weekly chart. Although this metric alone cannot determine the end of a bear market, it is needed for the start of a bull.
Secondly, I have taken a Pitchfork from three significant pivots on the Bitcoin chart. The twenty thousand dollar high, the five thousand eight hundred low, and then the eleven thousand six hundred high. From these three pivots, and modifying the pitchfork, I have worked out a channel Bitcoin has been respecting for the last eleven months; currently finding resistance on the .1 from my Pitchfork.
Lastly, price is now ranging between two Fibonacci levels the .786, which is resistance, and the .886, which is support. A break below the .886 I would expect the horizontal supports to be tested and held. If Bitcoin breaks the .786 a test of the old support of six thousand should be tested quickly. The reason why I believe a swift rise would be seen is that above the .786 Fibonacci level there is little resistance between that and the old support.
I would like to add the 200 simple weekly moving average has acted as support twice now for Bitcoin, therefore it is a support that is currently being respected. I hope you have enjoyed this write up about Bitcoin and given perspective of what is happening on a macro time frame. It is important to remember that a market trends only ten percent of the time, so one should be looking to scalp or swing trade these ranges until important supports or resistances are penetrated.
- Idea I posted about Bitcoin finding support at the 200 weekly moving average on its second touch, which happened.
Firstly, Bitcoin is being held down by the trend line resistance resistance established on the 29th of November, and then confirmed from the touches on the 24th of December and 8th of January. This is a valid and strong resistance trend line, which until broken keeps the macro trend bearish with continuous lower highs. The lower highs have been a theme for Bitcoin throughout 2018 and now continuing into 2019. A metric for helping me decide when we may be reaching the end of the bear market will be the first higher high and higher low become pained on the weekly chart. Although this metric alone cannot determine the end of a bear market, it is needed for the start of a bull.
Secondly, I have taken a Pitchfork from three significant pivots on the Bitcoin chart. The twenty thousand dollar high, the five thousand eight hundred low, and then the eleven thousand six hundred high. From these three pivots, and modifying the pitchfork, I have worked out a channel Bitcoin has been respecting for the last eleven months; currently finding resistance on the .1 from my Pitchfork.
Lastly, price is now ranging between two Fibonacci levels the .786, which is resistance, and the .886, which is support. A break below the .886 I would expect the horizontal supports to be tested and held. If Bitcoin breaks the .786 a test of the old support of six thousand should be tested quickly. The reason why I believe a swift rise would be seen is that above the .786 Fibonacci level there is little resistance between that and the old support.
I would like to add the 200 simple weekly moving average has acted as support twice now for Bitcoin, therefore it is a support that is currently being respected. I hope you have enjoyed this write up about Bitcoin and given perspective of what is happening on a macro time frame. It is important to remember that a market trends only ten percent of the time, so one should be looking to scalp or swing trade these ranges until important supports or resistances are penetrated.
