HiTech
Long

Counterparty VS Bitcion Reversal Attempt

POLONIEX:XCPBTC   Counterparty / Bitcoin
Counterparty seem to have found the bottom at BTC             0.00133, as after bouncing off that level price started to produce higher highs and higher lows. The break above the downtrend trendline as well as 50 Moving Average suggests that it could be an attempt to revers the trend to the upside.

The uptrend trendline is being rejected and today XCP/BTC broke, and currently trading above the 50 Moving Average once again. Nevertheless, before confirming the uptrend, Counterparty must break all the upcoming resistance levels. 

First is at 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at BTC             0.00186, which has been previously broken from above. Second resistance has been already formed on 3rd of March as is based at BTC             0.00214. And final resistance is at 76.4% Fibonacci, that is BTC             0.00255.

Daily break and close above the final resistance should confirm trend reversal, but before that, any upwards move should be considered as a correction.

On a downside, break and close below the uptrend trendline should invalidate short term bullish outlook and extend the consolidation, potentially sending XCP/BTC down to psychological support at BTC             0.001
Comment: Counterparty reached the second target
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I hear you but I am not as optimistic. Since September 2016 XCP has been in a Descending triangle and tested the support around the current level of 0.00150 BTC many times. The high in July 2017 and the high in January 2018 were consistently lower than the previous high so the lower highs each time put XCP in a downward slope. When looking at the time frames between each high point one will notice about a 220 to 250 day average since February 2014 between each high. Currently we are only 80 days away from the last high so have a long way to go.

Bottom Line - If XCP break out it will highly likely maximum only reach 0.003 BTC and it still has to go for another 140 days before that breakout will occur.
+1 Reply
netrin Wetdog544
@Wetdog544, Considering that the market appears to be accelerating (my opinion), is it possible that those time frames could contract? My personal expectation is that alts will not need to retrace 100% before going back up. XCP is already almost there anyway, putting it in a good position. I could be wrong, but I've been willing to invest in that. I do suspect in agreement with your comment that we're not looking at an upcoming ATH. I still expect significant gains. It will indeed depend on the time frame.
Reply
netrin Wetdog544
@Wetdog544, To add to my previous comment, I find this analysis reasonable:
Reply
@netrin, Yup - I can support this model
+1 Reply
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