This is how I see it. Not financial or tax advice.
In the shorter term, XFRL is rejecting from the $0.26 resistance and is printing lower lows after each test.
Flare has said they would launch +-2 weeks from the end of June. This would put the Flare launch within the next 6 days if they keep to that timetable.
My wild guess is that it will launch on Monday the 12th. It makes sense to launch on a Monday and harvest a full week of press attention and associated FOMO, This also corresponds to an important personal date for the flare team. Remember this is a wild guess. Did I say guess?
When Flare launches, 15% of XFLR will convert to FLR. The remaining 85% of XFLR will convert slowly over the following 2 years.
The first 15% of this conversion will be given at a 0 cost basis, and that implies that this portion of the air drop will not be considered taxable income. However; for the remaining 85%, FLR will have an established market value. And in the US and other jurisdictions, this may be considered taxable income. I believe this tax concern and a general lack of patience will create substantial downward pressure on XFLR. This, the daily setup (shown below) and the shorter timeframe price action (shown above) means that I will be looking for buy setups in the $0.02-$0.04 range when the dust settles after the FLR launch.
In the shorter term, XFRL is rejecting from the $0.26 resistance and is printing lower lows after each test.
Flare has said they would launch +-2 weeks from the end of June. This would put the Flare launch within the next 6 days if they keep to that timetable.
My wild guess is that it will launch on Monday the 12th. It makes sense to launch on a Monday and harvest a full week of press attention and associated FOMO, This also corresponds to an important personal date for the flare team. Remember this is a wild guess. Did I say guess?
When Flare launches, 15% of XFLR will convert to FLR. The remaining 85% of XFLR will convert slowly over the following 2 years.
The first 15% of this conversion will be given at a 0 cost basis, and that implies that this portion of the air drop will not be considered taxable income. However; for the remaining 85%, FLR will have an established market value. And in the US and other jurisdictions, this may be considered taxable income. I believe this tax concern and a general lack of patience will create substantial downward pressure on XFLR. This, the daily setup (shown below) and the shorter timeframe price action (shown above) means that I will be looking for buy setups in the $0.02-$0.04 range when the dust settles after the FLR launch.
Comment:
Comment:
The Songbird airdrop announcement adds a mix of down and up pressure. Songbird is a canary (test) network that closes flare. What this means is that Flare will not drop within their initial stated timeline.
The downward pressure: This also means that people have to wait more to get their FLR tokens.
Potential upward pressure: XFLR may also get the songbird drop @ .1511*xflr= # of tokens dropped. This is not confirmed by Poloniex, but would make sense from an accounting perspective. Will also say that this is massive speculation. If Poloxiex does not tie the songbird launch to xflr, then expect another dump
For me this news is mixed. We have to wait more, but we also have the chance to get an additional airdrop.
This is the big announcement that we were waiting for.
what I am doing about this?...I am looking to add more longs and put some lowball orders in. But that's just me, you do your own thing.
The downward pressure: This also means that people have to wait more to get their FLR tokens.
Potential upward pressure: XFLR may also get the songbird drop @ .1511*xflr= # of tokens dropped. This is not confirmed by Poloniex, but would make sense from an accounting perspective. Will also say that this is massive speculation. If Poloxiex does not tie the songbird launch to xflr, then expect another dump
For me this news is mixed. We have to wait more, but we also have the chance to get an additional airdrop.
This is the big announcement that we were waiting for.
what I am doing about this?...I am looking to add more longs and put some lowball orders in. But that's just me, you do your own thing.
Comment:
*clones flare* typo
Comment:
Still no clarity on how the songbird drop will be handled, but it is still a multiple weeks away. In the meantime, the technicals continue to play out with price action establishing a new (lower) support/resistance level. This is still looking weak to my eyes, and nothing has changed in my overall thesis.
Comment:
a month has now passed and XFLR is printing a really nice head and shoulders pattern, could be a revisal and would invalidate the thesis outlined above if the neckline breaks
Trade active:
3 months later and some of my lowball orders filled on wicks down, but the downward pressure continues as the flare project has been quiet as of late. I am now waiting to see of the 17-18 cent range holds. If it breaks lower, I will be waiting for buy setups, if it breaks the 20W sma and the blue trendline with conviction, I will add some longs.
Comment:
downward pressure continues, and pricing had a weekly close below the 18 cent support for the first time. The Bitrue/plolnex ratio is also out of whack with Bitrue pricing falling much more than Polonex. My overall thesis is still intact, and potential support levels are on the chart. It is nice that they both line up with important levels in the price action as well.
Trade active:
2 months later and our patience has paid off. The above thesis played out all the way down to 0.08 I have begun to DCA into long positions to see if this price holds for a bottom.
Trade active:
even though I taken some early speculative longs at 0.08 I still have my eye on this level. If it doesn't hold, the next target is waaaaaaay down, near 0.01 This level makes sense from a gap completion perspective. All Eyes on 0.08 and the back test on that 0.18 level. Super risky to play in this right now. But I jumped in nonetheless because I believe in the long term thesis on Flare.
Trade active:
2 weeks later and there we sit, right on the $0.08 level. I wait with patience to see how this goes.
Trade active:
three weeks in, and the 0.08 level is still holding. A look at depth on the exchange shows large asymmetry, much more buys than sells on the order book with a large wall at 0.08 that is about 30x daily volume. This could be manipulated though, so I am taking care. However, I am putting in more longs here.
Trade active:
I have been waiting since July of last year for the $0.04 level to play out and it did last night. I didnt have the right reasons or the right timing, but it played out nonetheless. Happy days.
