Looking at Stellar Lumens: part 1 - General financial knowledge.

BITTREX:XLMUSD   Lumen / US Dollar

Stellar Lumens are a digital currency I have been watching for about a year now. I was planning on releasing ideas on it sooner or later (I actually forgot about it and did not follow its progress for a couple of months, so thank you for reminding me of this).

Stellar is an open-source, decentralized protocol for digital currency to fiat currency transfers which allows cross-border transactions between any pair of currencies. The Stellar protocol is supported by a nonprofit, the Stellar Development Foundation.

Here is the first part of a series on the Stellar Lumens project and currrency. There will be at least 5 parts.

Here is how my first 3 parts will look like:

A) Part 1 - General knowledge about financial markets, past examples.
B) Part 2 - XLMUSD technical analysis & social sentiment (or public opinion)
C) Part 3 - Fundamentals, pro's and cons, ROI potential (but not only).

I might do a part 2 with more examples and then part B moves to part 3 and C to part 4.

I realized Warren Buffet did not say "markets are a great tool to transfer money from those that can't see where bottoms are to those that can notice stocks are on discount" but "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient".

God himself could appear and tell people something bottomed, only those with cash available would be able to buy.
Lmao anyone that just copied what Buffet did past decades would be immensly rich now :D
He literally let people know when to buy and when to sell.

KNOWING when something is a great opportunity is not enough. If you threw all your cash in the market already there is nothing you can do about it.
Some people do not want to risk missing out. They never succeed or a very few lucky ones that of course are delusional and think they are good.
Remember that. Always.

Now let's look at some past examples.

Here is an example of a stock on sale. Microsoft sure took a while to fall, but it fell, they were clearly a big company, and anyone with cash available prepared to take some risks while people were fearful would have made some nice returns.

These market cycles... Now what would be the most efficient would not be accumulating or buying during panic and then hold, but getting in at the start of a bull run, or during that "depression" phase. For value investors they just look at stock values, at companies management and all these things, and if you buy stocks of a company that are cheap, even if it stagnates you are going to get some dividends, that could be 5% of your investment every year, maybe more if you bought low enough. That is some nice passive income. for cryptocurrencies well... there are just no earnings no company no nothing. Have to look at other things, that will be in my part 3.

Gains once Microsoft had a new bull market were not even close to what it did before of course, and that is what every one should expect with crypto. Bubble's over.

If we drop to 5 cents then get to dollar parity, that would be an increase of 1900%! Put 1000 in, get 19000 out.
That is huge, not saying it would go up that much, it could, probably not that much thought.
Cryptoers really need to lower their expectations. The bubble is over there is not going to be other meteoric 50000% rises.

Back in 1999 people got all excited hearing about stories from cyber millionaires (and 2017 with crypto millionaires), for example Cisco went up 120.000% in just a few years! Well it dropped then bounced, up 500% in 15 years, which is not even close to what all the bagholders were hoping for, but still some really big returns for those that bought at the lows.

Here are a couple of headlines from 2008 & 2009 on microsoft . May they rest in piece. The company was looking bad, this is all true so yes they were reasons to be bearish , but people as usual made a whole fuss about a bump in the road.
Microsoft also did not issue earnings guidance for the rest of the year, and its earnings statement offered no hope for a rebound in the current quarter. So people imagined the worse. "If they had good news or even neutral news they would tell us, no words means it must truly be horrible". They were still selling computers. People were more than willing to pay for shares at PE of 200+ or even like 20000 for Yahoo but hear microsoft might go from 50 to 100 and every one loses their minds, plus if the price goes down then the ration goes down too.

"Microsoft revenue drops for first time in 23 years"
"Sad Day For Microsoft: 5,000 Laid Off, Earnings And Revenues Down"
"Microsoft feels more recession fallout, sales drop - Phys .org"

Going to go a little outtopic but not really and talk about information sources.
Noticed the headlines "every one is getting ridiculously rich with Bitcoin and you're not". Now titles are more "has the bubble gone bust?". Pure clickbait. They are financially illiterate. Free news sites and magazines. This is their business model, they clickbait to get as many views as possible to sell their advertising space at a higher price. Why anyone would be influenced even a tiny bit by this and not see it as pure entertainment, I have no idea. "But experts said this stock had strong fundamentals..." seriously?
If you want some serious journalism you're going to have to pay, get the wall street journal or Times or something idk. And still, double check anything you read.
Like anyone working for an institution is going to use CNBC fast money as their source of information :D

What to remember from part 1:
- Be patient keep your cash and take the risk of missing out, a real investor is not limited to ONE asset. Plenty of opportunities out there, all the time.
- Learn about market cycles. The price always follows these patterns, it can look very different but it is always possible to recognize these. Check plenty of past examples. These do not say where the price will bottom not even close and in particular when the panic stage starts, there is not telling when it will stop.
- If you are dreaming of gigantic gains, lower your expectations. If dreaming is what you want, you got the lotery, and there are plenty of bad analysts out there selling hopium.
- If you are looking for news, never take seriously the free ones. They are not delivering information, they are handing out entertainment. Official dev notes, SEC filings, serious journals, choose your sources wisely, and filter through all the trash.
Comment: Stellar is #4 by market cap now.
Bitcoin SV #5

Only a matter of time before the big 3 crash and the #flippening happens.

According to Stellar is #63 on social networks (the herd is not interested at all), and it has been like this for a while, I have been watching for a year, back in early 2018 Stellar was usually ~#15 in social interest when #8 in mcap, it was not that bad.

Garbage troll coin Tron still in the top 10 of shitcoins generating the most popular interest.

I have to make a TA part, but I got lazy. I think I'll just improvise and make an audio unprepared version.
Comment: Social networks.
Search engines.
Microwave tech.

The obvious bad trashy 1rst prototypes get all the hype. They always die.
A new version, the best competitor, that works, that is cheaper, better, takes the crown in the end. So obvious. No dreams, no delusions, no utopia. Just plain simple. The best cheapest functionning ones win (if the tech itself has a future which is not always the case).
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