NaughtyPines

XOP -- BROADLY RANGEBOUND BETWEEN 32 AND 41

AMEX:XOP   SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLOR & PRODUCT
With November OPEC talks designed ostensibly to hammer out proposed output cuts being the binary event for oil             in the near-term, I'm looking to either (a) add to bullish positions in petro if those talks fail to result in meaningful cuts (I'm skeptical); or (b) hang on to my current bullish petro plays for the ride higher if those talks actually result in something. That "something" could run the gambit from a freeze at current levels, to modest output cuts, to deep production cuts. Previously, most of these talks have resulted in failure, so my money's on nothing really meaningful occurring that puts a major dent in the current glut. That being said, even a modest, non-glut relieving cut could signal to the market that there has been "some progress" over previous meetings, driving the price higher.

XOP             has been broadly rangebound over the past several weeks between 32 and 41, so I'm looking to add to bullish positions via naked short puts or short put verticals at the 32 strike or below. Currently, XOP             Dec             16th 32 short puts will bring in .50 ($50)/contract at the mid price; naturally, if price retraces somewhat on poor OPEC output cut talk, those strikes will increase in value, so patience is everything ... . If price drives higher, I'll just hang onto the long petro positions I have on now and wait for a better opportunity to add to or reestablish bullish oil             positions.
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