This move down after the upward breakout of the bullish correction triangle was completely unexpected and has invalidated my earlier Elliott Wave count since it made a new low below the previous Wave 4. It has also broken the established channel.
There are a few possible scenarios:
1. The last high is the top of Wave 3 and this pullback is Wave 4
2. The last Wave 3 count was actually Wave 5 and this is an ABC correction - This would make Wave 1 super flat and its hard for me to see an impulse wave, in relation to all other waves, as a wave that only moved 0.05 from 4/6 to 4/8 and would make Wave 2 a 4.236 fib extension of Wave 1.
3. Irrational market
It would appear XRP is leading the market direction now, not BTC. While XRP was taking a dive, BTC was making new highs, but eventually turned around and also lost about 10%.
Do I think we lost the bullish trend we established over the last few weeks? Nope. Not at all.
If I hadnt already bought here (the green buy area I marked earlier) I would be buying here again. We could see 0.77, the HA Pivot... but with the end of the month drawing near I find that the market starts to react to next months Pivot points.
I will redraw my counts as soon as I have more data to work with.
Follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI for additional analysis updates and important news related to Ripple.
There are a few possible scenarios:
1. The last high is the top of Wave 3 and this pullback is Wave 4
2. The last Wave 3 count was actually Wave 5 and this is an ABC correction - This would make Wave 1 super flat and its hard for me to see an impulse wave, in relation to all other waves, as a wave that only moved 0.05 from 4/6 to 4/8 and would make Wave 2 a 4.236 fib extension of Wave 1.
3. Irrational market
It would appear XRP is leading the market direction now, not BTC. While XRP was taking a dive, BTC was making new highs, but eventually turned around and also lost about 10%.
Do I think we lost the bullish trend we established over the last few weeks? Nope. Not at all.
If I hadnt already bought here (the green buy area I marked earlier) I would be buying here again. We could see 0.77, the HA Pivot... but with the end of the month drawing near I find that the market starts to react to next months Pivot points.
I will redraw my counts as soon as I have more data to work with.
Follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI for additional analysis updates and important news related to Ripple.
Comment:
Price did hit 0.77 as I suspected and ate up the $1 million buy order that has been on Bitstamp for the last couple weeks. It has since rebounded back past 0.80 which may indicate a bottom has been established where expected.
Comment:
Technically the move to 0.96 could be Wave 5 which would put us in an ABC correction, just seems weird for Wave 5 to be 0.5 fib of Wave 3.
Comment:
I have updated my Wave count in a new published Idea.
Might be worth following me here and on my Twitter @ExsiliumI so you can get up to date analysis, useful news and near real-time price action updates.
Might be worth following me here and on my Twitter @ExsiliumI so you can get up to date analysis, useful news and near real-time price action updates.
Comment:
Comment:
Word of warning here -
There is the beginnings of a bearish descending triangle forming. If it breaks down were looking at 0.685 as a target.
That said, I continue to see long open interest building and this would have to turn down before a break of the 0.76-77 level was broken.
While I dont see this as likely, I would be remiss if I did not inform those of you kind enough to consider my analysis that the possibility of further down movement was possible.
There is the beginnings of a bearish descending triangle forming. If it breaks down were looking at 0.685 as a target.
That said, I continue to see long open interest building and this would have to turn down before a break of the 0.76-77 level was broken.
While I dont see this as likely, I would be remiss if I did not inform those of you kind enough to consider my analysis that the possibility of further down movement was possible.
