Exsilium
Long

$XRP - Wave 5 Underway - Limited by 0.38

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
The market as a whole has seen a significant push up with Bitcoin at levels not seen since since the two week dive from 6500 to under 4000 in November, and while Ripple has not seen the same percentage gain that others have, it has gained nearly 20% in a two days. This all seems very bullish but there are a couple of limiting factors coming up.

If we look at the daily chart for BTC we can see the 5780 level as a pretty strong resistance level with a history of providing support five times since November 2017, and a break of which preceeded the dump to under 4000. Ripple has the same problem around 0.38. In May of 2017 this was a resistance level which when broke in December 2017 preceeded a huge jump up to 3.30. The price again reacted to this level in August 2018, and all through October 2018 to January 2019.

With Bitcoin approaching resistance level and Ripple very close to it, and with Daily RSI in Overbought territory, I suspect that Ripple will retrace from the 0.38 level before an attempt to break through. This is also supported by the Elliot Wave count 5 plotted in this chart with the Fib 1 of Wave 3 at... wait for it... 0.38002. With Wave 3 only hitting Fib 1 of Wave 1, I simply do not see Wave 5 extending past this point.

Also... 0.37887 is the Monthly R3 Pivot Point .

Assuming this holds true, expect a pull back to ~0.35 before the next series up.

Be very careful here. A break and close above this line could cause quite the surge upward, but will end in a parabolic failure like it has many times in the past.
Comment: Oh, I forgot to mention my current bias - i continue to hold a chunk at 0.28, two chunks at 0.31 and another at 0.36 that I got this morning.
Comment: It didnt touch 0.38 but got very close and then dumped.

This retrace should allow the next push to break through, though it could take another 2 attempts. A large part of that depends on Bitcoin unfortunately.
Comment: It looks like we are on wave C of an ABC correction. This could end up flat or with it extending down to 0.32. This makes sense as 0.32 was a resistance level.
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