Week 1 of 21 - Ripple (XRP) Surveillance Report

Good morning or afternoon depending where in the world you reside.

Week in Crypto (Top 3 Events):
#1 - Baakt continues to make headlines and progress in launching their proprietary digital asset market place that will offer a institutional grade custody program combined with a fully regulated digital asset exchange and physically delivered futures on Bitcoin . Understanding their partnerships with Starbucks , Microsoft as well as their relationship with I.C.E ( Intercontinental Exchange ) which operates traditional exchanges like the NYSE is a news worthy event to follow in the coming months. In the past two weeks they have closed initial funding rounds and have raised over $180M. This week they are on a hiring spree for core developers. Follow their twitter for the latest updates.
#2 - Jack Dorsey - CEO of Twitter - was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast promoting Bitcoin and digital assets as a revolutionary technology. He believes Bitcoin will become the world currency in our lifetimes as it was born on the internet and will become the currency of choice of the internet. Square continues to outperform on the stock market and allows for bitcoin payments to be sent and received via their app as well as fiat.
#3 - Dan Morehead - CEO of Pantera Digital has said recently despite the market sentiment in prices the fundamentals in the ecosystem have never been stronger. He believes all the innovation and infrastructure that is being built to accommodate institutional investments has calmed any doubts whether blockchain technology and Bitcoin is here to stay or not.

Despite the positive fundamentals what does the technical picture tell us?

BEARS - have been successful squashing any short term rally attempts by the bulls in this descending channel. Every pullback has been defended by the bears. Selling pressure continues and evidence for this is when the 50 Day SMA (Orange Trend Line ) fell below the 200 Day MA (Blue Trend Line ) back on April 9th. This is known as a death cross. The fact XRP has been unable to confirm the 50 Day SMA as solid support since shows how much the bears are in control. If bears are successful in pushing prices below 26 cents this could ensue panic selling. We don't feel XRP has reliable historical support from 2017 as the coin pumped so much in a short period of time. We feel a more probable support would be a drop to the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement to around 17 cents. We feel there is enough of a risk/reward ratio to place a short entry if the bears are able to break below our short entry level.

BULLS - XRP bulls will not gain ground until a high volume event propels the coin above the 50 Day SMA as well as the top of the descending channel . We want to be conservative going long in this pronounced bear market and patience is the name of the game. Therefore, we are suggesting to wait to place any buy orders until XRP breaks above the channel at or around 34 cents at the time of writing. We will update this entry price as the market develops and possibly to lower targets if prices continue to dip. The 200 Day MA (Blue Trend Line ) is sitting around 39 cents. XRP has outperformed Bitcoin for several months but has not been able to decouple. As you can see multiple times it's propelled above it's 200 Day MA, but was not able to sustain the momentum. Until Bitcoin starts to make some real bullish moves XRP will remain overall bearish sentiment.

RSI - XRP has been a consistent RSI trade on oversold conditions since Aug 2018. Had you bought when RSI touched or dipped below 30 your average costs basis is still profitable. Or even better had you sold during the overbought levels or when the market began to reverse you would have profited with nice double digit returns per trade.

Trade suggestion: We are not recommending any trades until there is more market clarity whether you are a bear or bull. Be patient for interesting prices.



Today marks the launch of my 21 week trading program where I will be publishing text and video content M-F. I will be updating this report Wednesday and Friday this week so be sure to hit the like and follow to get notified.
Brough the short entry to a more aggressive level.


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