Pattern is following very closely to post made on April 21st. If it is correct, then we are in wave C of wave II. The alternate bearish scenario has us in wave C of wave B. Both scenarios infer a rise up to above .96 once wave 2/B is finished... so for the moment, they are aligned.
Are of support in .60's the likely stop.
What becomes important to a trader is the reaction from that area. It will be a good place to add positions with limited risk max risk is low in mod .40's) for a potential wave 3/C up.
What becomes important to a trader is the reaction from that area. It will be a good place to add positions with limited risk max risk is low in mod .40's) for a potential wave 3/C up.
Comment:
A rally up to .89 in the past 12 hours is good news for the bulls. Either price is printing out a higher B wave (in higher degree wave 2) before falling in a wave C of 2 or wave 2 is already over and wave 3 has begun. If the latter scenario is true (this is my alternate at the moment), it would make wave 2 a rather shallow retracement at near 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is a common fib level though and I have certainly seen shallow wave 2's end near this level, so I would definately not be short for a potential wave C to materialize... especially in light of the primary trend which has turned bullish. Picking scraps from the jaws of a shark is not a healthy hobby. Sticking with my primary pattern... we are in a wave B of wave 2. This infers that wave C will drop below .76 (wave A low) to complete wave C of wave 2. The purple shaded area is still the target zone, but with the rally overnight, we may only touch near the top of the zone and may not even get lower than the mid .70's before completing. I will have better targets once wave B ends. Stay tuned... it's getting interesting!
Comment:
From my update on 4/28:
"This infers that wave C will drop below .76 (wave A low) to complete wave C of wave 2. The purple shaded area is still the target zone, but with the rally overnight, we may only touch near the top of the zone and may not even get lower than the mid .70's before completing. I will have better targets once wave B ends. Stay tuned... it's getting interesting!"
It looks like after the little false rally up to .90 area to complete wave B, we are falling back down into wave C as expected.
A measured move for wave C (of wave II) to end (and the bull trend to begin again) would be just above .70. This would make wave C near equal to wave A. .70921 is 50% and .64886 is the 61.8% fib retrace level. These are common areas for 2nd waves to end.
"This infers that wave C will drop below .76 (wave A low) to complete wave C of wave 2. The purple shaded area is still the target zone, but with the rally overnight, we may only touch near the top of the zone and may not even get lower than the mid .70's before completing. I will have better targets once wave B ends. Stay tuned... it's getting interesting!"
It looks like after the little false rally up to .90 area to complete wave B, we are falling back down into wave C as expected.
A measured move for wave C (of wave II) to end (and the bull trend to begin again) would be just above .70. This would make wave C near equal to wave A. .70921 is 50% and .64886 is the 61.8% fib retrace level. These are common areas for 2nd waves to end.
Comment:
The wave 2 correction is turning into a more complex pattern (XYZ or ABCDE triangle). This is very common with Elliott wave corrections. There are many corrective patterns that can play out. Most importantly, is that the pattern stay corrective against the primary trend. Having confidence in the primary trend is paramount to risk management.
My target levels for the end of wave II are the same as prior updates.
If the ABCDE triangle option is indeed playing out, price will not hit the fib levels mentioned above. Two thoughts on triangles. Wave 2 triangles are extremely rare. They are most commonly found as fourth waves, or in B waves of a counter trend correction. They are so rare, that if a triangle is playing out as a wave 2 in this case, I will be considering changing my count... wave 2 becomes a wave B. This doesnt change the short term outlook (will still have a rally in wave C after wave B ends), but longer term trend confidence shifts. Won't get too far ahead of my primary count though... just giving a glimpse into some areas I am watching on the radar screen as alternates in case they materialize.
Good luck!
My target levels for the end of wave II are the same as prior updates.
If the ABCDE triangle option is indeed playing out, price will not hit the fib levels mentioned above. Two thoughts on triangles. Wave 2 triangles are extremely rare. They are most commonly found as fourth waves, or in B waves of a counter trend correction. They are so rare, that if a triangle is playing out as a wave 2 in this case, I will be considering changing my count... wave 2 becomes a wave B. This doesnt change the short term outlook (will still have a rally in wave C after wave B ends), but longer term trend confidence shifts. Won't get too far ahead of my primary count though... just giving a glimpse into some areas I am watching on the radar screen as alternates in case they materialize.
Good luck!