Swingtrade Quickpost: XRPXBT shows overall market bias.

XRP basically is the whole cryto market on stimulants in bull markets and on downers when in bear markets. For years it was called a stable loss coin and then it showed a whole lot of life for the week before Thanksgiving before dumping. It seems clear now that there was a descending that has broken to the downside and now I am just waiting for this continuation pattern to develop. It is still a bit early to call it a pennant or rising wedge or symetric trianlge and each of those formations has a different precice target so I have boxed out a range. Two of the of the most obvious places for the continuation pattern to find resistance are the long term EMAs I am showing as well as the base of the triangle.

If XRPXBT is looking at falling almost 30% I would be guessing that BTCUSD would be looking at a 20-30% drop and XRPUSD would be looking for a 50-60% drop. Due to what I have seen in the eurodollar (GE1!) price action have closed my crypto holdings, moved to fiat, and am shorting. XRPXBT will be one of the charts I look at to judge when the broader market is done selling off if I am correct.

And I have to be transparent, my bias has changed to bearish over the short term based on some larger things I am seeing in the market. I don't want to be the guy who is always looking for one last dip. My bias will be invalidated in part by watching how the 200 EMA will act. It is falling rapidly and think when it hits price action we will see the dump I suspect is coming. Below is a downtrend from this August which I think would be a reliable fractal to look for repetition but on a different timeframe. All in all a quicker consolidation, a higher high and a higher low is macro bullish but it comes after one last beating.

I'll look at stepping up as a buyer when we get to target or the 200 is support.

Comment:

Decided to zoom out and it appears my target flips previous resistance as support. It is possible it bounces a couple of times on the trendline before launch off.

Comment:

Times like this are very exciting. Price has gone to 0.0.00002270 and the top of the buy box was at 0.00002260. Very close. This chart has the 1 day bollinger band in orange and the one week in blue. Price action is out of the daily bollinger band, almost at full performance, and resting on the 20w SMA.

Here is is the wider shot and it looks fantastic.