Kumowizard
Short

Yields want to go higher, ZN price lower -> consequences

CBOT:ZN1!   10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES - ECBT
40 5 1
Why is the USD gaining some strength? Why are metals being hit and breaking their bullish trends? Probably because rates want to go higher from here. In terms of $ZN futures it obviously means lower price.

Clearly US rate expectations and bond curve movements lead global Fixed Income markets. Any big QE the other central banks can promise, if US yields go up, global yields can not really go down. (one reason among all, that supports my bearish view on Bund             and BTP).

There can be one more important consequence of rising yields: global risk asset repricing. If we call global bond markets a bubble, whyt will happen to EM world and developed stock markets if yields really go up. By this I don1t mean 5-10-20 bps             surge... more like 75-150 bps             bond blow ups on mid and long end of the bond curves. Just thinking laud.

My view is the same as it has been for months: the huge and historically unprecedented bubble is in the bond markets! Therefor first short the bond markets, and only later can we get bearish for stocks .

$ZN Technicals:
All bearish , or bearish-like signals are marked on the weekly and daily charts with ellipses. Possible bearish tgt             is 129+
pmcllc PRO
5 months ago
not sure but treasuries might break out higher...
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Kumowizard PRO pmcllc
5 months ago
for me right now price action looks the opposite ... I mean if we both talk about price.
Selling pressure, bearish signals
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fash
5 months ago
Excellent stuff Kumo, love your analysis, especially with things that aren't on my radar. Thanks again!
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Kumowizard PRO fash
5 months ago
welcome friend!
You don't have to put too many things on your radar, but ZN is something you should follow. It is a basic element of the global capital market. Very important to know what is happening in rates, especially in US bonds!

By the way you can trade the whole global macro with maximum 10-15 assets. Something will always catch a trend.
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Kumowizard PRO
5 months ago
Bearish. But BTP is still the best short!
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