Kumowizard

Consolidation - too many positive divergences

CBOT:ZN1!   10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES - ECBT
59 3 8
Weekly:
- Neutral Ichimoku
- Heikin-Ashi candles have been printing both upper and lower wicks for last two weeks, while haDelta and DMO             ticked higher: This means sellers faced counter buying interest, volatile consolidation has been going on at key support of 100wma and Senkou B. Please also note that haDelta and DMO             both developed some positive divergence.
- EWO             is bearish , MACD shows consolidation - histogram ticks higher.
- As discussed earlier a possible long term H&S top will be something to monitor in coming months! Especially if this similarity develops together with Bund             futures! At some point long end bonds may start moving together in one direction, and that would be a huge game changer in global Fixed Income markets!

Daily:
- Bearish Ichimoku , but market may get stuck in 129'05 - 130'25 range.
- Heikin-Ashi switches to bearish today, BUT watch out for those positive divergences in haDelta and DM_Oscillator!
- EWO             is bearish , but also started to build some positive divergence.


I am very confident about building a startegic fixed income short position both in ZN             and in Bund             , but just in case of Bund             , here we have to be very picky on entry points too.
If rates go up we will see "the end of the world as we know it". ;)
Reply
Kumowizard PRO CaliforniaTrader
Well, I've been around financial markets for almost 20 years now. For me there will be nothing new. I've seen some bond selloffs and bear markets in my life. I know how to play it.
I also remember how to trade FX when there is decent cost of carry (swap difference) on some pairs.

That was my real trading world. I'll be very happy to see it again.
Reply
Wouldn't we all. Love to get back to a normal world.

I traded in the option pits so my time frame was considerably shorter in my professional life. But in my personal portfolios now I'm getting very conservative, less paper and more tangible assets. I came into the year thinking metals, resources and all their equities. So far so good. I now especially like the noble metals; they are a bargain on an inflation adjusted basis, and supply disruptions are a regularity. Now it's a matter of watching the technicals for timing signals.

Unlike you I don't have the comfort level trading pairs and the FX market. I mean, I used to do it when I was younger... but you basically had to stay up all night long, which gets impossible after 40 yrs.

My real point is this: We remember the lessons of our father, but we forget the lessons of our grandfather. That's true of every culture for the most part. And given the incredible level of debt in the world, we could easily see events unfold that we haven't seen in a very very long time in this country.... if you get my drift. Be prepared for anything.
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