MrRenev
Short

Something brewing with agriculture

CBOT:ZS1!   Soybean Futures
I have noticed agriculture volumes were soaring recently, maybe I am out of touch but those are the numbers I had in mind before:
Soybeans (5B), Corn (2B), Wheat (1B), Cotton (900M), Coffee (600M), Sugar (500M), Cocoa (300M)

And now they are 2 to 5 times higher, what's up? ==> Soybean Futures 10-15 Billion, Corn futures 10-15 Billion, Wheat 4-5 Billion. Those are the CME ones, the ICE sucks hard but I noticed Sugar volume at over 1.25 Bil yesterday for March contract alone. So in total basically 30 to 50 billion usd a day for the 7 big ones.
Then you got all the other ones, I saw live cattle was at like 1.5 billion yesterday (wat?), lean hogs at 500+ million...
Buahahaha even orange juice futures are over 300 million. Orange juice futures , what a meme. Who even trades that?
* Do not look at tradingview volumes they are all wrong.

How it looks on higher TF:


Corn:


Wheat:


Sugar:


Here is what I am looking at immediately:



Trump is trying to shill, buuut doesn't seem to be working.
Wheat is on a massive selloff US business has been lost to France (get rekt).


Investors are counting on a positive trade deal and I think this is why prices have been going up for the past months (same concept as stock market).
I heard artificially inflating prices with hope and presidential tweets worked just great.
I bet Trump has been postponing everything just because dumb investors kept buying in anticipation of that trade deal. No matter how much it gets postponed they just keep buying like little lemmings, and Trump keeps posting the Dow Jones gains since he started his term & what a great president he has been so he clearly has a motive.
Can't blame him, most people are too stupid to figure out any of this, he is just doing what a politician does. Maybe he's one of these "with an IQ of 130 that thinks he is at 170" guys I have been hearing about ( Elon Musk too according to Charlie Munger).

What I think is either on positive news investors will take profit (buy the rumor sell the news),
and on bad news. Oh my. All this volume , they're all going to want to sell, right? I do not think we will see a short squeeze, who is shorting this? Nah. Could be wrong but from experience people are not that smart.

I really want to trade this, but this is my advice: just do not touch it. Let's wait for the big burn to pass, and then after we shall trade those.

And remember,
* When prices go up, greedy agri giants (that have traders and actively invest in this) rub their hands and make profits on the back of poor people that can barely afford food (Remember Glencore backlash after stating prices explosion 10 years ago was very profitable)
* When prices go down, the poor little farmer is suffering while governments and big players step on them and make profits (they're protesting and telling every one how angry they are right now because they feel people in power do not have a high opinion of them and that hurts their feelings - really not even kidding - as well as taxes and high gaz prices)
* When prices do not move "nothing ever improves". How do you make price never move anyway?

Prices going down should mean people in civil war countries could get to eat, sit and watch farmers go on a rampage, block roads, burn hundreds of thousands of tons of crops to reduce supply.
Comment: Ye it really looks like it's the end of the line for Soy beans.
All the soyboys died of malnutrition and demand fell I guess.

Farmers are starting to worry China demand will fall, I want to see some fear out there, I want to see panic.
Once the downtrend is well established, I will look to join the downtrend on a retrace. Selling momentum could be very strong. But there is still uncertainty thought. Just wait and see for now. I'm probably just going to daytrade it tbh.

Comment: I think this is it.
Comment: Commissions are just too much for me to participate in this with the strategies I have. Sad. Was easy money. Just going to keep watching for time to time for education purposes.

"Willy bot was built to stabilize the market"
- Mark Karpelès, master troll.
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