Kumowizard

Soybeans - Seeking direction, volatility is extremely low

CBOT:ZS1!   SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
68 2 4
Last two weeks have been boring in Soybeans' market. Small spike up, then back, but in fact it has been trading in a very narrow range. There is total undecision, but the next break will end in a big move.

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is still rather bearish , but in fact since October/2014 the bearish bias softenned a lot. Chikou Span is getting close to Price of 26 weeks ago.
- previous HA candle already showed undecision, and this week's candle is something we very rarely see in commodities . It has smaller body than previous one, and its body and wicks are still within the previous candle's.
haDelta is difficult to read, as it is above its SMA3, but still both lines are below zero level

Daily:
- Last 6-7 days were total neutral with no clear HA candles. Price is stuck to Tenkan Sen. Will it change today with a bullish candle and with haDelta crossing up again above zero? We'll see
- Ichimoku picture is also neutral. All average lines are flat, and Chikou Span is neutral too.
- Price is equally close to the major downtrend line and to the shorter term minor uptrend line. Break through one of these lines will decide the next major move, which after such a low volatility period will be a sharp and decent one. Please note that the Kumo is very thin above. So in case Price manages to break the downtrend line it will not be very difficult to break the Kumo as well.

Obviously from the recent setup this model can not decide which direction will come next. but as the space is getting really tight, it worths to watch Soybeans             price action in coming days.
For a bullish reversal the key level is ard 1000, bearish continuation requires a break below prev low at 952.

againstthegrain
2 years ago
would that be the typical “calm before the storm”?
it may be a simplistic view, but I see this more like “commodity is inversely proportional to usd”. as long as dx keeps its “never-ending” upward move, ags will keep giving mix signals and most likely stay on “accumulation mode”.

on a more technical approach, from a wave-counting standpoint, there are two possible scenarios. If what we are seeing is an abc correction then this possible upward move would have difficulty to break the major short-term resistance around the 1060-level and a downtrend would follow hammering the market to below 900’s.

the second scenario (and this is me) we are seeing a gentle retracement as part of a wave 2 setting the 1060-level as a major mark from where a wave 3 would gain speed/momentum.

at any rate, you are giving us a sound advice with your analysis (i.e. if you are neutral, keep watching and get ready for action, if positioned, tight up your stops!)
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Kumowizard PRO againstthegrain
2 years ago
All agreed. 1060 is really important tech level. Besides the horizontal on the daily, the weekly Kijun Sen is there too.
Naturally USD stregth doesn't help commodities. And as we all know, USD bull and equity bull will "never ever end" ;-). Good points from you, thanks for the add-on!
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