timwest
Short

Soybeans are green and ready drop on rain

CBOT:ZSX2012   SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
719 29 5
WATCHING FOR A TOP
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Why? Well, I just drove across the country (Tues-Wed last week, 1800 miles in two days) westbound from CT             to CO and I saw nothing but very dark, green, leafy soybean             plants the whole way across route 70 to Kansas and across route 80 to Greeley. My guess is that soybeans             produce far greater than expected and that corn             produces far less
than expected, just based on burned out corn             plants and dark green, leafy soybean             plants. The next rain that goes through will turn into huge, fat soybeans             but corn             is dead without much hope (from the way I see it).
Again, just my observations that I thought I'd share with tradingview.
It cost me 90 gallons of gas and two days of my time to come to this conclusion so don't shoot the messenger for the message. Note the comments on the chart for how to proceed with a trade. Essentially, buy put spreads or sell call spreads. I think the tropical storm presents an interesting end to this bull market move in soybeans             .

Cheers,

Tim 1:40PM EST, Monday, August 27, 2012
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
wanted to ask you, but don't know how to contact otherwise : whats your view on Wheat vs Corn ? why is wheat still holding up and rangebound ? (whereas e.g. corn, soybeans, Soybeans oil) left the Jul-Sep range and are correcting the hefty Jun-Jul rally. Is the wheat harvest so much worse than the corn one ? Otherwise why not shorting wheat vs long corn ? thx if you have a comment
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oops, hit to quick. I meant great comment, super observation and research (driving around the country!) and combining this with your technical approach. I just joined this platform a few days ago, but great call Tim !
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Thanks chartbuzz :-) Welcome aboard.
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great comment Tim !
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This panned out very nicely.
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bcarbon timwest
Wonderful!! Right on target..
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Thanks bcarbon! :-)
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Agreed.
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Here is a report from the 24th about the anecdotal evidence that Soybeans are producing more than expected:

"Soybean prices are being weighed down by reduced concerns about U.S. supplies in the near term, as the ongoing harvest brings an influx of soybeans into the pipeline. That seasonal factor is being accentuated by farmers selling supplies to take advantage of near-record prices, said Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Anecdotal reports of better-than expected harvest yields across the Farm Belt are weighing on prices as well, Mr. Roose said.

Soybean futures hit all-time records earlier this month, buoyed by a severe drought that has punished crops for weeks in the central U.S. But futures came under pressure last week as speculative funds cut exposure to risk and the pace of the soybean harvest picked up."

Source: Tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_U_S__SOY__Beans_Extend_Slide_on_Seasonal_Rise_in_Supplies_186104889.html

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Followed.
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