timwest
Short

Soybeans are green and ready drop on rain

CBOT:ZSX2012   SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
716 29 5
WATCHING FOR A TOP
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Why? Well, I just drove across the country (Tues-Wed last week, 1800 miles in two days) westbound from CT             to CO and I saw nothing but very dark, green, leafy soybean plants the whole way across route 70 to Kansas and across route 80 to Greeley. My guess is that soybeans             produce far greater than expected and that corn             produces far less
than expected, just based on burned out corn             plants and dark green, leafy soybean plants. The next rain that goes through will turn into huge, fat soybeans             but corn             is dead without much hope (from the way I see it).
Again, just my observations that I thought I'd share with tradingview.
It cost me 90 gallons of gas and two days of my time to come to this conclusion so don't shoot the messenger for the message. Note the comments on the chart for how to proceed with a trade. Essentially, buy put spreads or sell call spreads. I think the tropical storm presents an interesting end to this bull market move in soybeans             .

Cheers,

Tim 1:40PM EST, Monday, August 27, 2012
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
I made a typo in the chart "limit the downside" instead of "limit the upside". :-)
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Thank you for sharing.
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The yields might be higher (they said, in the past, that some rains might help soybeans more than other grains) If the top is near , than the fall might be even greater :D..."In Chicago, Broker Doane noted that, with "commodity trading funds still adding to already large net long positions in corn, soybeans and wheat", the market has "reached a point where it's almost as bearish as bullish.

"These funds will surely sell aggressively to take profits and avoid losses if the three markets so much as stop going higher."

US Commodities said: "A risk to the trade is the length of the managed funds. The fund position in all grains combined is the largest in six years."" agrimoney.com posted last night :)...
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When everyone agrees on the direction of the market, it is usually the time to get out. 1" of rain would change the price of corn and soybeans dramatically. With a storm charging straight at the breadbasket, there is a decent chance this could be an opportunity for a big change in price direction. Managed funds do tend to be trend followers and now that ETF's are big players in futures, it means that trends can get even more out of control. Everyone with a stock brokerage account can trade futures indirectly through these ETF's like SOYB and CORN.
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Keep your eyes on the news here in beans. Export demand picked up on the recent price setback and prices are lifting to account for that demand coming from Asia. There are several sites to monitor the news. I am looking for an entry price at 1735 today, Wednesday, to go short. Risk 3 average daily trading ranges (roughly 20 cents avg range)
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I still think this is a good trade setup.
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Razvan timwest
Me too, i am really curious to see the real data regarding this years production. This might end up just a distribution zone, but all the news coming are just bullish for grains.
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Soybean production is only down a small fraction overall, yet prices are up dramatically. This market is the most ripe for correction, especially as harvest time rolls around.
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I agree with you now. The rubber is about to snap! Look at my chart on bean oil. Sell also there.
Bean Oil short
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Soybeans are following along this path nicely. They are almost down LIMIT today! I haven't seen the news yet to explain the drop.
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Here is a report from the 24th about the anecdotal evidence that Soybeans are producing more than expected:

"Soybean prices are being weighed down by reduced concerns about U.S. supplies in the near term, as the ongoing harvest brings an influx of soybeans into the pipeline. That seasonal factor is being accentuated by farmers selling supplies to take advantage of near-record prices, said Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Anecdotal reports of better-than expected harvest yields across the Farm Belt are weighing on prices as well, Mr. Roose said.

Soybean futures hit all-time records earlier this month, buoyed by a severe drought that has punished crops for weeks in the central U.S. But futures came under pressure last week as speculative funds cut exposure to risk and the pace of the soybean harvest picked up."

Source: Tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_U_S__SOY__Beans_Extend_Slide_on_Seasonal_Rise_in_Supplies_186104889.html

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This panned out very nicely.
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bcarbon timwest
Wonderful!! Right on target..
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Thanks bcarbon! :-)
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great comment Tim !
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oops, hit to quick. I meant great comment, super observation and research (driving around the country!) and combining this with your technical approach. I just joined this platform a few days ago, but great call Tim !
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Thanks chartbuzz :-) Welcome aboard.
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wanted to ask you, but don't know how to contact otherwise : whats your view on Wheat vs Corn ? why is wheat still holding up and rangebound ? (whereas e.g. corn, soybeans, Soybeans oil) left the Jul-Sep range and are correcting the hefty Jun-Jul rally. Is the wheat harvest so much worse than the corn one ? Otherwise why not shorting wheat vs long corn ? thx if you have a comment
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