Getting Started with Forex Prop Trading: Intro Guide🔸Forex prop trading (short for foreign exchange proprietary trading) refers to a trading model where traders use capital provided by a proprietary trading firm to trade in the Forex (foreign exchange) market. Unlike traditional retail trading, where traders use their own funds, prop traders operate with the firm's capital, typically after passing a series of evaluations to prove their trading skills and risk management abilities. In return, the firm takes a percentage of the profits generated by the trader.
🆕 Here’s a more detailed look at how forex prop trading works and why it's appealing:
🔸 Access to Capital
Prop firms offer substantial capital to skilled traders, allowing them to trade with much larger account sizes than they might be able to on their own. For example, a trader might be funded with anywhere from $10,000 to $1,000,000 or more, depending on their experience and the firm's offerings.
🔸 Evaluation Process
Most prop firms require traders to pass an evaluation or assessment phase before providing access to live capital. This involves trading on a demo account and meeting specific performance metrics like profit targets, drawdown limits, and risk management rules. If the trader successfully passes this phase, they are then given access to a live account with the firm's capital.
🔸 Profit Sharing
Once a trader is funded, they enter into a profit-sharing agreement with the firm. Typically, the trader receives a percentage of the profits, often around 70-90%, while the firm keeps the rest as compensation for providing the capital and infrastructure. For example, if a trader makes $10,000 in profits and their profit split is 80/20, they would keep $8,000 while the firm takes $2,000.
🔸 Risk Management
Prop firms are very strict about risk management because they are providing their own capital. They impose limits on the maximum drawdown (the amount a trader can lose), daily loss limits, and leverage. If these rules are violated, traders risk losing their funded status.
🔸 Advantages for Traders
Low Financial Risk: Traders do not need to risk their own capital, reducing personal financial exposure.
No Pressure to Invest Large Sums: With access to firm capital, traders don’t need to save up large amounts to trade at higher levels.
Support and Resources: Many prop firms provide educational resources, trading platforms, and tools to help their traders succeed.
🔸Types of Prop Firms
Prop firms can generally be categorized into two types:
🔸Traditional Prop Firms: These firms often require traders to work in-office and provide access to a wide range of markets beyond Forex, including stocks, commodities, and derivatives. Online Prop Firms: The more popular model today, these firms operate remotely, allowing traders from around the world to participate.
🔸 Fees
Most prop firms charge traders an initial fee to cover the evaluation process. This fee can range from a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars, depending on the account size. In many cases, this fee is refundable if the trader successfully completes the evaluation.
🔸 Challenges
Strict Rules: If traders fail to adhere to the firm's rules (such as daily loss limits or maximum drawdown), they can lose their funded account.
Pressure to Perform: Trading with someone else’s capital can create pressure, which can affect trading decisions and lead to mistakes if not handled well.
🔸Bot Algo Trading in Forex
Algorithmic trading (algo trading) involves using pre-programmed instructions (algorithms) that can automatically execute trades in the Forex market based on specific conditions. These conditions can be price, volume, time, or other market indicators. Algo trading has become increasingly popular in the Forex market due to its ability to:
▪️Execute trades at high speed without the need for human intervention.
▪️Remove emotional biases, which can often lead to poor decision-making in trading.
▪️Test and optimize strategies through backtesting on historical data to ensure effectiveness.
▪️Implement complex strategies that would be difficult for a human to execute manually.
🔸what is a Bot Algo Expert?
A bot algo expert is typically a professional who specializes in developing and optimizing trading algorithms (bots) for Forex markets. They possess skills in coding, often using languages like Python, MQL4/5 (MetaQuotes Language), and other programming languages tailored to financial markets.
🔸The expert focuses on building bots that can:
▪️Identify trading signals based on technical indicators (like moving averages, RSI, Bollinger Bands).
▪️Automatically execute trades when certain criteria are met (such as entering or exiting positions).
▪️Manage risk by setting stop-loss and take-profit orders to minimize potential losses.
▪️Optimize performance by regularly updating the algorithm based on market conditions.
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Btc!
The Coin Market is Different from the Stock Market
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The coin market discloses a lot of information compared to the stock market.
Among them, it discloses the flow of funds.
Most of the funds in the coin market are flowing in through USDT, and it can be said that it currently manages the largest amount of funds.
Therefore, unlike the stock market, individual investors can also roughly know the flow of funds.
Therefore, you can see that it is more transparent than other investment markets.
-
USDT continues to update its ATH.
You can see that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market through USDT.
USDC has been falling since July 22 and has not yet recovered.
The important support and resistance level of USDC is 26.525B.
Therefore, if it is maintained above 26.525B, I think there is a high possibility that funds will flow in.
If you look at the fund size of USDT and USDC, you can see that USDT is more than twice as high.
Therefore, it can be said that USDT is the fund that has a big influence on the coin market.
USDC is likely to be composed of US funds.
Therefore, if more funds flow in through USDC, I think the coin market is likely to develop into a clearer investment market.
But it is not all good.
This is because the more the coin market develops into a clearer investment market, the more likely it is to be affected by the existing investment market, that is, the watch market.
This is because large investment companies are working to link the coin market with the coin market in order to make the coin market an investment product that they can operate.
In order for the coin market to be swayed by the coin-related investment product launched in the stock market, more funds must flow into the coin market through USDC.
Otherwise, it is highly likely that it will eventually be swayed by the flow of USDT funds.
Therefore, USDC is likely to have a short-term influence on the coin market at present.
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As mentioned above, the most important thing in the investment market is the flow of funds.
The flow of funds in the coin market can be seen as maintaining an upward trend.
Therefore, there are more and more people who say that there are signs of a major bear market these days, but their position seems to be judging the situation from a global perspective and political perspective.
As mentioned above, the funds that still dominate the coin market are USDT funds, which are an unspecified number of funds.
Therefore, I think that the coin market should not be predicted based on global perspectives and political situations.
The start of the major bear market in the coin market is when USDT starts to show a gap downtrend.
Until then, I dare say that the coin market is likely to maintain its current uptrend.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator is approaching its highest point (100), and the uptrend is reaching its peak.
Accordingly, the pressure to decline will increase over time.
-
(1W chart)
The StochRSI indicator is also in the overbought zone on the 1W chart.
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(1M chart)
On the 1M chart, the StochRSI indicator is showing signs of entering the overbought zone, but it is not expected to enter the oversold zone due to the current rise.
The movement of the 1M chart should be checked again when a new candle is created.
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You can see that the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart is the most unusual among the three charts above.
In the finger area on the 1M chart, the StochRSI indicator was in the overbought zone, but it is currently showing signs of entering the oversold zone.
Therefore, you can see that the current movement is different from the past movement.
Therefore, I think it is not right to predict the current flow by substituting past dates.
------------------------------------------
I wrote down my thoughts on the recent comments from famous people who say that the coin market will enter a major bear market along with the stock market.
-
Have a good time. Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points.
We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Chart with trend(MACD), momentum(DMI), and market strength(OBV)
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BW+ indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates MACD, DMI, and OBV indicators.
Therefore, knowledge of MACD, DMI, and OBV indicators is required.
I added the existing HA-Low and HA-High indicators to express the section to start trading more clearly.
-
The indicators have changed and been supplemented a lot over the past 6 years of using TradingView.
It was not easy to express my trading method as an indicator.
Because of this, I think there are people who unintentionally interpret my writing differently from what I think.
So, to narrow this gap, I am explaining the indicators used in my article.
Since these indicators are automatically generated by a formula, no one can change them.
Therefore, I think anyone can look at the chart and interpret it from the same perspective.
However, there may be differences in interpretation depending on one's investment style or average purchase price.
However, since everyone talks about the same point, there will be no confusion.
-
When talking to each other in the community, if you talk with the chart tool you drew, you may talk differently and there may be room for misunderstanding.
So, I think the conversation often goes in a strange direction because the conversation ends up talking about whether it is LONG or SHORT right now.
I think that charts drawn with chart tools are not very meaningful because they only show a part of the person's thoughts through chart analysis.
This is because they do not tell you the selection point using the chart tool, so interpretation or understanding is lacking.
Therefore, you cannot apply such content to your own chart.
So, since it can't be used as a trading strategy, I can't help but just say, "Oh, that could be possible."
However, if there is a chart that everyone can see and no one can change, I think it would be easier to talk and reflect each other's thoughts on my trading strategy.
I think that because of that, I can find out what I lacked and supplement it.
Not everyone sees the same thing and thinks the same, but if the basic point of the thought is the same, I think it can help me make other people's thoughts my own.
-
Anyway, I hope that this chart change will help you create a clearer analysis or trading strategy.
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The MACD indicator added to the chart is an indicator with a modified formula from the existing MACD indicator, but the interpretation method is the same.
That is,
- If MACD > Signal, it is interpreted as an upward trend,
- If MACD < Signal, it is interpreted as a downward trend.
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The DMI indicator added to the chart simplifies the interpretation of the existing D+, D- indicators by expressing them as lines on the ADX line.
That is,
- The section expressed in Aqua color means a downward section,
- The section expressed in Orange means an upward section.
- When ADX is above 25, it means that the strength of the upward or downward movement is strong,
- When it is below 25, it means that there is a high possibility of forming a box section or sideways section.
-
The OBV indicator added to the chart means an upward trend when each line is broken upward, and a downward trend when it is broken downward.
-
The indicator that expresses the contents explained above is the BW v1.0 indicator.
In order to see this more intuitively, the BW (100), BW (0), and Mid (50) indicators were added so that they can be expressed in the price candle section.
In addition, there are also High (80 Down), Low (20 Up) indicators.
-
It is never easy to interpret each indicator and evaluate it comprehensively.
It is especially difficult when trading in real time.
-
When interpreting the BW v1.0 indicator, it is basically divided into rising and falling based on the 50 point.
Therefore, passing the 50 point increases the possibility of a significant change in the trend.
Therefore, it seems that trading can be done based on whether there is support near the Mid (50) line generated when the BW indicator passes the 50 point, but this is not the case.
The reason is that volatility is likely to occur when a change in trend occurs.
When volatility occurs, your trading point will go up and down, so psychological pressure will increase and you may proceed with an inappropriate trade.
Therefore, a good point to start trading is the BW (0), BW (100) or HA-Low, HA-High point.
Since these indicators are generated at the boundary of the low or high point range, if you start trading based on whether there is support, you are more likely to get good results.
-
In any case, you should think in line with your average purchase price.
Otherwise, if you trade incorrectly due to psychological pressure when you get close to the average purchase price, you may end up with little profit or even a loss.
This means that when you start a new trade, it is better to start near the BW (0), BW (100), HA-Low, and HA-High indicators as mentioned above.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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Misconceptions and Truths about Paper Trading
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TradingView also supports Paper Trading.
For more information, please click the link below. www.tradingview.com
More flexibility: change your Paper Trading account currency :
www.tradingview.com
Even more seamless order design — directly on chart :
www.tradingview.com
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Paper Trading is thought to support trading practice for beginners.
However, this is a wrong idea.
If you lack prior knowledge about trading or have no concept of trading strategy, you should not do paper trading.
The reason is that the psychological burden is different.
The success or failure of a trade is thought to be the result of trading strategy or response ability, but in reality, it can be said that it is determined by the battle with oneself and psychological state.
This means that psychological state has a significant impact on trading.
Therefore, paper trading should be considered as a transaction that is conducted to confirm one's trading strategy and response strategy after completing chart analysis.
If you have completed some verification of your trading strategy or response strategy, you should continue to conduct actual trading even if you suffer a loss.
The reason is that you should not forget that you can only gain know-how in trading through actual trading.
Therefore, paper trading should not be used to practice mid- to long-term trading, but should be used to verify trading strategies or response strategies for short-term trading or day trading.
In order to do so, you must close the transaction by selling or cutting your loss.
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For more information on trading orders in paper trading, please refer to the explanation through the link above.
-
You can proceed with Paper Trading by clicking the Trading Panel at the bottom menu of the TradingView chart.
If you connect to a Paper Trading account, you can start with an initial fund of 100,000.
If the Buy/Sell button is not activated, activate the chart settings to activate the Buy/Sell button before proceeding with the trade.
Right-click on the space in the price candle area to activate the window, and then hover your mouse over the Trade section to check the trading order or trading settings (when you click the Trading menu in the Chart Settings window).
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In addition, TradingView is linked to a real exchange and supports real trading.
It supports various exchanges, so I recommend you to check if there is an exchange that you are trading on.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
Activate the alarm function when touching the set indicator
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One of the good things about using TradingView charts is that you can use the alarm function.
This alarm function has a limit on the number depending on the plan you use, so please check it out.
I will take the time to explain the alarm function using my chart.
It is hard, boring, and tedious to just look at the chart until you meet the desired trading point or criteria.
If you do that, you may end up making a wrong trade or missing the trading period while doing something else.
If you create an alarm and change the Value section to the HA-MS_BW indicator, multiple indicators will be displayed.
The indicators currently activated on the chart are HA-Low, HA-High, BW, and M-Signal indicators on the 1D chart, so you can select BW or HA-Low, LH, LL and check if the alarm turns on when they cross.
When looking at the 15m chart, since it is moving sideways in the box section of the HA-Low indicator, if you set it to LH, LL indicator, the alarm will come when you touch the upper or lower point of the box.
Then, you can use it conveniently when you want to trade within the box section.
If you want to trade in a large trend, I think it would be good to set the alarm to turn on when you touch the 5EMA on the 1D chart.
Or, you can set the alarm to turn on when the OBV indicator breaks through the high (HH) or low (LL) line upward.
If you are a paid member of TradingView, I highly recommend using the alarm function.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
The real uptrend is expected to start after it rises above 29K.
The area expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Basic example of starting a trade
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This is an example of starting a trade, explaining that you should objectively define the basics that are right for you.
Therefore, I hope that this will be an opportunity to reexamine your trading judgment criteria rather than judging it as right or wrong.
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It is showing a downward trend without breaking through the sell line of the superTrend indicator.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support near the M-Signal indicator (approximately 59953.52) on the 1W chart and rise above 60672.0-61099.25.
If not, you should check whether it is supported near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart).
Therefore,
1st: 59053.55
2nd: 57889.10
You should check whether it is supported near the 1st and 2nd above.
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Usually, there are many cases where you trade impulsively based on your psychological state.
To prevent this, it is good to have an objective trading method according to your investment style.
This objectification is best done at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Therefore, it is good to trade based on whether it is supported near 59053.55 or 60720.0-61099.25.
However, judging whether it is supported only by sight can lead to an incorrect judgment depending on psychological factors that occur during trading, so it is good to have objective information as the basis for judgment.
It refers to indicators added to the chart as objective information.
The MS-Signal indicator is used as a trend-related indicator, which is the M-Signal indicator of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
As a trading-related indicator, the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and their corresponding box sections, superTend, and volume profile are used.
As a trading-related reference auxiliary indicator, the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator are used.
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If we explain the current movement by referring to these indicators,
- The superTrend indicator, which is passing around 60672.0-61099.25, has failed to rise above the sell line,
- It is showing a downward trend below the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart,
- The StochRSI indicator is showing a trend of changing from an upward to a downward slope in the overbought section. However, since the StochRSI indicator has not yet fallen from the overbought zone and is not in a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, it is difficult to see it as a downward turn.
Therefore, an aggressive sell (SHORT) is possible between the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the 60672.0-61099.25 range.
Afterwards, when the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone and becomes a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, if it shows resistance near 59053.55 or the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, you can sell (SHORT).
If it is supported at the point mentioned above, you can buy (LONG).
However, it is recommended to check whether the state has been changed to StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
If not, it can pretend to rise and fall right away.
-
Have a good time. Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are the points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points.
We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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All About the Head & Shoulders Pattern(Beginner-Friendly) Part.2Hello, everyone.
Today, I’m excited to share the second part of my educational series on chart patterns.
In this post, we’ll be focusing on the 'Head and Shoulders' and 'Inverse Head and Shoulders' patterns.
For those who missed the first part, you can catch up here:
↓↓↓
As always, I’ve kept the explanations simple and beginner-friendly. I hope this guide provides you with valuable insights!
Here’s today’s outline:
————
✔️ Outline
1. What is the Head and Shoulders pattern?
Definition
Key components
Characteristics
2. Head and Shoulders
Basic features
Examples
3. Inverse Head and Shoulders
Basic features
Examples
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1. What is the "Head and Shoulders" pattern?
1) Definition
The Head and Shoulders pattern is a well-established reversal formation that appears after an uptrend and signals the potential start of a downtrend. It indicates that buying pressure is weakening and selling pressure is gaining momentum.
2) Key components
Left Shoulder: The initial peak, where the price rises and then pulls back.
Head : The highest peak, situated between the two shoulders, representing the final bullish push.
Right Shoulder: The third peak, which is typically lower than the head but similar to the left shoulder, signaling diminishing buying interest.
Neckline: A key support line drawn across the lows of the left and right shoulders. A decisive break below this neckline confirms the reversal and the beginning of a downtrend.
3) Characteristics
Reversal signal: The Head and Shoulders pattern marks a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend.
Easy identification: The structure is visually distinctive, with three clear peaks.
Neckline significance: A break below the neckline serves as a confirmation signal for the downtrend.
Volume dynamics: Volume typically rises during the formation of the left shoulder and head, decreases during the right shoulder, and surges again when the neckline is breached.
————
2. Head and Shoulders (Reversal from uptrend to downtrend)
1) Basic features
End of an uptrend: The Head and Shoulders pattern forms at the end of a bullish phase, signaling a weakening in buying strength.
Distinct peak heights: The head is always higher than the shoulders, which are generally symmetrical, though the right shoulder may sometimes be slightly lower, enhancing the pattern’s reliability.
Neckline as a trigger: The neckline acts as a critical support level. A break below it confirms the pattern and signals the onset of a bearish trend.
Volume confirmation: Volume increases during the left shoulder and head formations, weakens during the right shoulder, and spikes when the neckline is broken, confirming a potential sell-off.
Price target: After the pattern completes, the expected price drop is typically equal to the distance between the head and the neckline, providing traders with a target.
2-1) Example 1
In this example, we see a fakeout at the right shoulder, followed by a sharp decline.
After a brief retest of the neckline, the price broke through and continued its downtrend.
2-2) Example 2
In this chart, a fakeout occurred when the price dropped from the head and formed the neckline, misleading many market participants. After forming the right shoulder, the price successfully declined. There were two retests, which confirmed the reliability of the pattern.
————
3. Reverse Head and Shoulders (Trend reversal from downtrend to uptrend)
1) Basic features
End of a downtrend: The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern typically forms at the end of a downtrend, signaling a potential reversal to the upside.
Formation of lows: Like the standard Head and Shoulders, this pattern consists of three lows—left shoulder, head, and right shoulder—with the head being the lowest point.
Neckline significance: The neckline is drawn across the highs of the left and right shoulders. A break above this line confirms the reversal and acts as a strong buy signal.
Volume pattern: Volume tends to decrease during the formation of the pattern but surges when the neckline is broken, signaling strong buying momentum.
Target setting: After the pattern is confirmed, the expected price rise is often equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, which helps traders set profit targets.
2-1) Example 1
After the Head and Shoulders pattern formed, the price broke above the neckline, successfully reversing the downtrend into an uptrend. A buy strategy would have yielded profits at the breakout point.
2-2) Example 2
In this example, a smaller Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern formed within the head of a larger pattern (see Example 3). After two successful retests, the price reversed into a strong uptrend.
2-3) Example 3
This example showcases the smaller Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern mentioned in Example 2, located within the head. After two successful retests, a buy strategy could have led to profits as the price reversed into an uptrend.
————
✔️ Conclusion
"Charts are the maps of the market."
The Head and Shoulders and Reverse Head and Shoulders patterns we’ve covered in this post are key signals that frequently appear in the market. Charts aren’t random—they are visual representations of market psychology and investor behavior. As traders, our role is to interpret these maps, navigate the market, and make informed decisions.
Investing is more than just buying and selling. Sometimes the market may move contrary to our expectations, while other times we seize opportunities and achieve success. Each experience is a chance to learn and grow. The more experience you gain, the more paths you’ll recognize on the chart.
Success in this market requires persistence, patience, and continuous learning. Understanding and analyzing chart patterns like the ones discussed here is just the beginning. I hope this post has helped you gain a deeper understanding of the market and make more informed decisions.
The market is always evolving, but within that evolution lies opportunity. The key is developing the ability to spot those opportunities. With knowledge, experience, and confidence, you’ll find greater success.
Stay prepared, and always listen to what the market is telling you.
Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact.
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me.
I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading.
I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory.
When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct.
Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below;
And step two;
In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment.
We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView
Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game.
Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you.
This is where sentiment really comes in.
As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd.
Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool.
So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias.
I wrote an article in 2021 here -
About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions.
If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series.
Stay safe and wish you all the best.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Fear and Greed Index: Decoding Crypto Market Sentiment!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and emotions can often drive trading decisions. The Fear and Greed Index attempts to quantify these emotions, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment at a given time.
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
The Fear and Greed Index is a composite score ranging from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
It analyzes several data points to arrive at a single value:
Volatility:
Higher price swings indicate greater fear, while lower volatility suggests a calmer market.
Market Momentum:
Rapid price increases point to greed, while sustained price drops signal fear.
Social Media Sentiment:
Analyzing the tone of social media discussions about cryptocurrency can reveal fear or greed.
Survey Data:
Polls and surveys gauging investor sentiment are also factored in.
Dominance:
The market share of Bitcoin (BTC) relative to other cryptocurrencies is considered.
How to Interpret the Fear and Greed Index:
0-24: Extreme Fear: This indicates a potentially oversold market where investors are panicking. It might be a buying opportunity for long-term investors with a high-risk tolerance.
25-49: Fear: The market is cautious, and prices could go either way.
50-74: Greed: Investor sentiment is becoming optimistic, potentially leading to price increases. However, be cautious of entering a potentially overbought market.
75-100: Extreme Greed: Euphoria reigns, and prices could be inflated. This might be a good time to take profits or exercise caution before entering new positions.
Is the Fear and Greed Index Manipulated?
Can people mess with it? Kinda. They might try to fake positive social media stuff to make the index look more greedy than it is. Also, the way the index weighs different things can be tweaked a bit.
But here's the thing: There's a lot of data going into the score, so it's not super easy to manipulate. Plus, everyone knows how it works, so investors can take it with a grain of salt.
The Fear and Greed Index at 47 (Neutral)
With a current score of 47, the Fear and Greed Index suggests a neutral market sentiment. Investors are neither overly fearful nor excessively greedy. This could indicate a period of consolidation or a wait-and-see approach before the market makes its next move.
Remember:
The Fear and Greed Index is just one data point among many. Always conduct your own research and employ a comprehensive trading strategy before making any investment decisions.
New crypto world or just a bubble?Imagine how a young student from Norway, Christopher Koch, finds himself in a virtual labyrinth of the Internet, where in one of its corners a mysterious light flickers - information about the brave new world of digital currency called Bitcoin. Driven by a fierce passion for learning the art of finance, Christopher decides to invest his modest $25 in 5,000 coins of this currency and leave them alone for four years, like grains in sand, hoping for a miracle. And lo and behold, a miracle happens! When he suddenly returns to this world, Bitcoin, like the stars in the night sky, doubles its value over and over again, turning a modest initial investment into a fountain of $800,000, illuminating Christopher's path with an endless light of wealth.
Meanwhile, in another corner of the world, James Howells, like a hero from a fairy tale, finds himself in a dark room where his old disk lies, from which 7,500 bitcoins suddenly shine like treasure in the valley of dragons. But, unfortunately, the key to the treasury was lost, and the disk is now hidden deep underground, under a layer of time and oblivion. These two stories, like little sand stars on the ocean shore, reflect the grand journeys and vicissitudes of the world of cryptocurrencies, where every step can be a magical or dark turn on the path to wealth and adventure.
These are just two of the many stories played out in the cryptocurrency theater. Some students turn their study days into journeys to make millions, others get lost in the maze of the pursuit of quick money, and some simply lose the keys to their treasure troves and are unable to unlock the doors to their wealth. Cryptocurrencies are not only financial instruments, but also plots for exciting stories about adventures, discoveries and losses that make our world more mysterious and fascinating.
This is what New York looked like in September 2008: one after another, people in expensive suits with boxes in their hands come out of a building in the center of Manhattan. These people were fired from the world's largest bank, L Brothers, and so far no one knows that these layoffs will begin the deepest economic crisis on the planet since the Great Depression. A decline in production, an increase in unemployment, the disappearance of easy loans - all these signs indicate that a collapse may hit us too. Almost no one thought that more than 2 million people in the United States alone would lose their jobs. The crisis will spread to other countries that are closely linked to the American economy, and pension funds around the world will lose trillions of dollars.
Imagine a world where money is not printed by the state, but is masterfully forged by participants in a new game called blockchain. In 2008, an anonymous person under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto challenged established rules by releasing his creation into the world - Bitcoin, a digital currency in which there is no place for banking dependence or government control. This is something incredible, where every operation is a small masterpiece of cryptography, captured in the blockchain.
Let's see how it works: one participant transfers 10 coins to another, and after a while he returns five coins to him. But there is no room for fraud or oblivion, because each operation is encrypted and inextricably linked to previous blocks. It's like a game of ciphers where one mistake destroys the entire maze.
Each block in the blockchain is not just a record, but a quest where to create a new block you need to find the correct hash, consisting of a thousand characters. Miners are unusual treasure hunters who solve complex computational problems to discover that hash and earn their Bitcoin. And the more difficult the task, the greater the delight and reward, just like in the most exciting game. This is how digital currency appeared, which became a symbol of the financial revolution and a new era of independence.
On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote his name into history by creating the first block in the Bitcoin blockchain. In this block, as in the mysterious letter of time, there were no financial transactions. Instead, it contained just one phrase that caught the world's attention: "The Chancellor is on the brink of a second bank bailout." This phrase, which became the headline of the British newspaper Times, reflected the deep financial crisis that gripped the world.
A few days later, on January 12, Satoshi made the first real transaction in block 170, sending 10 bitcoins to programmer Hal Finney. With each new block, more and more people learned about Bitcoin, joined the process and became part of this revolutionary technology. It's hard to believe, but in the early days Bitcoin was worth less than one cent and was used more as an experimental technology than as a medium of exchange. However, with the passage of time and the spread of knowledge about it, Bitcoin began to gain increasing fame and value, turning from an experiment into a revolution in the world of finance.
Bitcoin is a unique form of digital wealth where ownership is entirely yours. No banks or intermediaries are required to transfer it. All you need to do is know the recipient’s wallet address, and you can carry out the transaction
shares directly. It is important to remember that the only way to lose your funds is to reveal the key to your wallet to scammers.
Bitcoin is also unique in that it has strict mining rules. Only 21 million coins will be created, and every 210,000 blocks the reward for finding the hash of a new block is halved. This means that if in 2009 a miner received 50 bitcoins per block, today this number has decreased to just over three. Despite the decrease in rewards, the number of miners is growing, and huge farms covering thousands of square meters are now used to mine Bitcoin. This competition does not have a significant impact on the mining speed, and it is thanks to this mechanism that Bitcoin has become known as “digital gold.”
Unlike fiat money, which is subject to inflation due to the constant printing of new ones, Bitcoin does not depreciate in value. This makes it attractive to many because it provides a stable and reliable medium of exchange rather than just paper bills in a wallet.
People sincerely believed that the new blockchain technology and Bitcoin in particular would give them complete control over their own finances. With each new miner, Bitcoin gained more trust. However, its limited throughput - just seven transactions per second, while Visa's was 24,000 per second - became a bottleneck. This slowness, although it ensured the stability of Bitcoin, prevented its mass use.
As blockchain became understood and widespread, thousands of programmers began looking for ways to improve Bitcoin. In 2011, a former Google employee created a cryptocurrency that was eight times faster, easier to mine, and cheaper to transact - it was Litecoin, the digital silver-to-digital gold equivalent of Bitcoin.
However, Litecoin was not the only alternative. In 2012, the Ripple cryptocurrency appeared, which was capable of transferring customer money in a few seconds and almost free of charge, which was a difference from the traditional Swift bank transfer system. Every year more and more new coins and projects appeared, offering various solutions and improvements in the world of cryptocurrencies. Vitalik Buterin truly revolutionized the world of cryptocurrencies. He asked himself: What if we took advantage of the new technology offered by Bitcoin and solved one of the key problems of the economy - the problem of trust? In 2015, he launched the Ethereum project, which proposed the concept of smart contracts. Here's how they work:
Imagine you want to buy an apartment. To protect yourself, you go to the bank and open a letter of credit. You deposit money into this account, which the seller will receive only after signing the purchase and sale agreement. The whole process is controlled by the bank, which takes a commission for this. The Ethereum smart contract removes the bank from this transaction. The system itself checks the terms of the contract and, if they are fulfilled, automatically transfers money from your wallet to the seller’s wallet. This happens quickly, cheaply and reliably, without intermediaries and unnecessary commissions. Ethereum has really made it easier to create your own cryptocurrencies. Previously, you had to develop your own blockchain to do this, but now thanks to Ethereum it has become much easier. Ethereum can be called the programming language of the cryptocurrency world because it allows you to create new coins and tokens easily and quickly.
As a result of the emergence of Ethereum in 2017, a massive phenomenon occurred - ICO (Initial Coin Offering), when startups issued their coins and tokens to raise capital. This allowed any startup to attract funding without special restrictions and control from the state. The crypto industry began to resemble the golden era of the Internet in the late 90s, when everyone understood that the future belonged to the Internet, and Internet companies grew quickly, like mushrooms after rain.
The essence of the ICO is that startups come up with their own project, issue a coin for this project and promise investors a huge increase in the price of this coin (for example, by 1000%). They then raise funds by selling their coins to investors.
Indeed, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies create two parallel worlds. One world is public money, which is backed and controlled by the government. Another world is private money, which operates on the basis of agreements and technologies between system participants, providing a greater degree of autonomy.
Governments find themselves in a difficult situation trying to straddle both sides of the aisle. They do not ban cryptocurrencies, seeing the potential for the future in blockchain technology, but at the same time do not recognize them as official money, since this threatens the foundations of the state economy. Many countries have begun to develop their own national blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, known as central bank digital currencies. Such currencies promise higher levels of transparency and security, since every transaction can be tracked, and smart contracts provide more reliable funds transfers.
This process leads to increased government control over financial transactions, but also provides citizens with more convenience and protection. Decentralization, which was originally one of the main features of cryptocurrencies, is now becoming a tool for government regulation.
My point is that cryptocurrency is not just a niche means of payment or a risky investment. It represents a new form of financial relations, which is already being actively introduced into everyday life. We are witnessing a historic shift in the financial sector, where digital money is becoming an integral part of our daily lives, just as the Internet became an integral part of our lives in the past.
TrendsThe trend represents the directional movement of prices and plays an essential role in most technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards or downwards. The upward-moving market is called the bull market, while the downward-moving market is called the bear market. Normally, a market is considered to be in an uptrend when the price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, the market is regarded to be in a downtrend when the price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. The non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend, and the price moves within a certain range. Thus, the flat trending market is notorious for its sideways-moving price action.
Key takeaways:
Trends can vary in length and are classified into four main categories: primary, secondary, minor, and intraday.
The primary trend is the most significant trend, lasting for months or years. It's characterized by the overall direction of the market.
The secondary trend opposes the primary trend and usually lasts for weeks or months.
Identifying trends is crucial for technical traders. Methods range from simple tracking of recent lows and highs to more complex mathematical formulas.
Trend classification
Trends tend to be of different lengths. According to these lengths, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend, and intraday trend. The primary trend is the only inviolable trend and lasts for a long period, usually months or years. The secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, the minor trend is measured in days, and the intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
The primary trend
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary uptrend begins with the revival of investors' confidence from the prior primary downtrend. That is followed by the second phase, in which asset prices increase in response to growing corporate earnings. In the third stage, speculation becomes the dominant force driving markets higher. This environment, when asset prices are rising on the hopes, dreams, and expectations of individual investors, tends to foreshadow the beginning of the primary downtrend. Its first phase commences with the abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. That is followed by selling pressure due to falling corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third stage.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration displays the weekly chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) for the period between late 2001 and 2008. The primary bull market began after the bottom of the “dotcom” bubble and lasted until the peak of the real estate and credit crisis in 2007.
Illustration 1.02
The image above presents the daily chart of gold (XAUUSD) during the 2008 bear market when it dropped 34%.
The secondary trend
The secondary trend is the intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend, and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of the range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows Bayerische Motoren Werke's (BMW) daily chart throughout 2020 and 2021. The white dashed-line box indicates the primary uptrend, and the grey dashed-line boxes indicate the secondary trends, counter to the primary one.
The minor and intraday trend
The minor trend lasts for a few days or weeks, yet always less than the secondary trend. It is more difficult to identify than previous types of trends since its amplitude in percentage terms is significantly less when compared to the primary and secondary trends. The same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for a few seconds up to several hours; it represents daily changes in the price and is regarded to have little predictive value.
Trend identification
Identifying a trend is crucial for a trend-based technical trader, and there are plenty of methods how to identify it correctly. These methods can be simple or very complex. The simplest method of identifying trends can be done by tracking recent lows and recent highs in the price of an asset. Other simple methods involve using lines, trendlines, and curves; more complex methods usually involve the use of mathematical formulas in order to generate a set of valuable data.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This article is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Miners' Bitcoin Holdings Decrease While Value in USD IncreasesWhile the amount of Bitcoin in miners' hands continues to decrease, its value against the dollar is increasing.
Miners' Bitcoin Reserves:
In 2019, Bitcoin miners held approximately 2.9 million Bitcoin.This number has been steadily decreasing since then. As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (source: intotheblock).
Value of Miners' Bitcoin Reserves:
In nominal terms, the amount of BTC they hold has decreased. However, in terms of value, it has reached the 2021 level again.
To illustrate:
On April 5, 2021, miners held 2.37 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $142 billion.
As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (worth approximately $129 billion).
Conclusion:
After the halving, we can expect miners' reserves to decrease (also to meet the increasing demand).
However, this is not a scary situation. I expect the dollar value of Bitcoin in miners' hands to exceed the previous all-time high in the near future. The reason for this is that the "realised price" (approximately the cost) of Bitcoin will increase after the halving. Overall, this is a data point that we should regularly check to better understand the bull cycle.
TradingView code for tracking the data:
BTC_MINERRESERVESUSD
BTC_MINERRESERVES
Thanks for reading.
How to compare other coins to BTCAn easy way and using a single chart to compare multiple coins to Bitcoin is by using the "+" button next to the Symbol input.
It quickly shows us which coins outperformed BTC in the past weeks/days and is a good indicator of how good altcoins are performing.
I added the top market cap coins that showed good results and the winners are SOL, AVAX and BNB. To my surprise, ETH is pretty even with BTC.
A new challenger that rose up within just a month is TON which market cap went up 185%.
Examples of criteria for creating a trading strategyHello traders!
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We analyze charts in a variety of ways to determine trends.
I think the important thing is how to create a trading strategy using these analysis methods, not whether you can match the trend or not.
Therefore, even if you know the trend, if you do not create a trading strategy properly, you may end up with small profits or even losses.
Therefore, I think it is extremely important to find support and resistance points that can ultimately create a trading strategy and how to create a trading strategy based on those points.
(Heikin Ashi 1D chart)
(Renko 1D chart)
I think the Heikin Ashi chart and Renko chart supported by TradingView charts are good charts for identifying trends.
However, since the HA-Low and HA-High indicators created using the Heikin Ashi chart are implemented, we will not talk about the Heikin Ashi chart.
The advantage of Heikin Ashi charts and Renko charts is that they reduce fakes and whipsaws.
However, it is not easy to actually trade with only two charts.
That's because it's so difficult to see.
In particular, Renko charts can be more esoteric than Heikin Ashi charts.
The reason is that the price is expressed in certain blocks.
However, if you look at the way the chart is drawn, you can see that fakes and whipsaws have been reduced more than the Heikin Ashi chart.
So, just as I created the HA-Low and HA-High indicators using the Heikin Ashi chart, I am trying to create a standardized trading strategy using the Renko chart.
We added the TS-BW auxiliary indicator used in the existing chart to verify the basic direction.
The overall direction can be verified by whether the BW indicator is in an upward or downward trend.
Additionally, you can verify more detailed direction through the movements of the StochRSI indicator and the StochRSI EMA indicator.
We added the MS-Signal indicator to the price chart section to help you see the chart trend more intuitively.
With the addition of the MS-Signal indicator, I don't think there is a need to add the superTrend indicator.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is a curve, we wanted to help create a trading strategy by adding the superTrend indicator, which is expressed as a line.
Next, in order to create a more confident trading strategy, various indicators are displayed on the price chart so that you can intuitively check support and resistance points.
By doing this, I believe that the Renko chart, which was used as a trend chart, was expressed as a tradable chart.
No matter how good an analysis technique you know, if you cannot create a trading strategy that suits you, your trading is likely to ultimately fail.
Therefore, once you have found an analysis technique that suits you, you should focus on reducing your psychological burden by investing more time in creating a trading strategy rather than trying to develop the analysis technique.
The trading strategy is
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
I think it consists of the three things above.
Steps 1 and 2 are steps to begin with a broader observation of the coin (token, item) you want to trade rather than the chart.
Therefore, in the coin market, it is necessary to check whether the coin ecosystem is expanding and which themes it is included in.
If you decide to trade a coin (token, item) that has been confirmed in this way, you must look at the chart of the coin (token, item) and create a trading strategy.
The decisions made in steps 1 and 2 of the trading strategy are classified into intraday and medium-term investment, short-term and day trading, etc., and the appropriate investment size is determined. Accordingly, actual purchases, sales, stop losses, etc. are made in step 3. You decide.
When purchasing, it is important to try to estimate the average purchase price as much as possible.
To do this, it is recommended to proceed with split purchases at the support and resistance points expressed in the chart above.
Selling for profit is also recommended through split sales.
However, you should try to sell when the price is rising.
This is because if you sell while the price is rising and falling, it can be quite difficult to create a follow-up trading strategy.
Therefore, when selling, it is recommended to conduct split sales using auxiliary indicators such as the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator.
I think stop-loss is something that should be done when there is a possibility that the price will fall further and cause larger losses.
Therefore, how to sell at the stop loss point is very important.
I believe that you can quickly learn a clear way to practice stop loss by conducting futures trading.
I believe that the overall rate of return is ultimately determined by how well you do your stop loss.
However, if possible, it is important to confirm your profit in advance before taking a stop loss.
Therefore, I think that when deciding buy, sell, or stop-loss points, you should not rely on price issues other than the chart.
This is because issues other than charts add subjective thoughts and can interfere with creating a proper trading strategy.
Therefore, when deciding on step 3 of your trading strategy, it is best to look at the charts first and then read various articles afterwards.
Whatever the method, if you have a trading strategy standard that suits you, that standard is the best trading strategy standard.
No matter how good the trading strategy standard is, if it does not fit your investment style, there is a high possibility that the transaction will ultimately fail.
When studying charts, it is best not to try to memorize the names of patterns or various indicators.
Those names are not helpful at all in creating a trading strategy.
Therefore, when studying charts or analysis techniques, you should try to find out what the key is.
Once you understand the core content, you need to think deeply about how you can use it to create a trading strategy.
You may have difficulty understanding this article because it contains a description of what you learned while conducting the transaction.
Also, it may sound abstract.
However, since it is information obtained through actual trading, I think it can be a way for those studying charts to learn more quickly.
Have a good time.
thank you
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Bitcoin Broke New High – The Real Reasons Behind ItThe relationship between inflation and Bitcoin - they moves in tandem together, in the same direction.
We saw Bitcoin has broken above its 2021 high, and it is likely to continue this trend.
Many attribute the reason behind this rally to the approval of Bitcoin ETF by SEC in January of this year. While this approval serves an incentive, the core reason for this rally is the resilience of US inflation, meaning the inflation is still pretty stubborn, not coming down to the 2% target.
Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options
Ticker: MBT
Minimum fluctuation:
$5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50
BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Why the Bitcoin Halving Historically Increases PriceThe bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, is encoded into Bitcoin itself. Its purpose is to cut in half the amount of Bitcoin that is rewarded for every block that is mined, meaning you must double the processing power every four years to mine the same amount of Bitcoin. (A block reward refers to the number of bitcoins you get if you successfully mine a block of the currency . Investopedia 2023 )
This means that it becomes twice as hard for bitcoin miners to mine the same amount of bitcoin they were mining four years earlier with the same hardware. This creates what is known as a drop in supply or supply shock, where market demand either stays the same or increases, and the price of bitcoin must increase to meet the demand.
If the demand stays the same or increases, the price still has to increase because the supply of bitcoin being mined daily is half what it was in the previous four years. There are fewer coins to buy, so the market must compete by paying higher prices. Because this event is exponential, eventually hardware will not be able to keep up with the halving if miners want to be profitable.
This may seem like an oversimplification of the most basic economic principles. However, that is what is fundamentally encoded into bitcoin, which guarantees an increase in price by cutting supply every four years (guaranteed only if demand stays the same or increases). That is why bitcoin halving is referred to as a market-moving event, because not only historically has it proven to increase prices and cut supply, but fundamentally it has too.
Now let’s look at a real-life example for comparison. Gold does have real-world use in technology and jewelry. However, its main value and use are as a store of value. Most gold is bought and accumulated because it will retain its value, which is the same use case as bitcoin. What do you think would happen if the entire gold production market was slashed in half overnight and this process was repeated every four years? The price of gold would increase exponentially as the finite resource becomes more and more scarce because it is harder to mine. Now apply the same logic to bitcoin, and hopefully you will begin to see the picture.
The next bitcoin has just under 60 days coming up in mid-April 2024, so mark your calendars.
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money.
The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below.
I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different.
So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m.
The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897.
Let's call it a little over 820 Billion.
At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion.
Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029.
This is only one aspect of the story.
Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent"
Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now.
Here's the actual chart.
What does this mean?
Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH.
Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH.
So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too.
Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's.
I've posted several times about the current COT landscape.
Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise.
Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity.
So why is this different?
I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move.
The second option was bearish.
Well, I guess the second move played out.
The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching.
Look at the momentum
People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again.
This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings.
All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic.
I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards.
They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold.
When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset.
This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin.
Hence it fits into the greater fool theory.
If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200.
You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do.
The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k.
These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch?
So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k.
Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET...
Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post.
Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Examples of how to draw and use trend linesHello traders!
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(1W chart)
Usually, the way to draw a trend line is to connect the high point and the high point where the trend changes, or to connect the low point and the low point to display the trend line.
Then, a channel is formed to express movement within that channel.
It is a relatively simple analysis tool that anyone with a good understanding of charts can draw trend lines.
However, I think whether you can use it in actual trading depends on how much you trust the trend line.
However, due to the nature of the trend line, it is expressed as a diagonal line, so it has a fundamental problem that it is not easy to respond even if it deviates from the trend line.
So, in order to trade with information obtained from chart analysis, you must draw support and resistance points close to the horizontal line.
Therefore, in chart analysis, you must have a basic understanding of the candle arrangement.
In my chart, the StochRSI indicator is
1. Use the waves of the StochRSI indicator to check support and resistance at support and resistance points.
2. Used to draw trend lines.
When drawing a trend line with the StochRSI indicator, the oversold section is below 20, the overbought section is above 80, and the trend line is drawn by connecting the points where the vertices are created.
However, the trend line drawn between high points is drawn based on the opening price of the falling candle.
Therefore, draw a trend line by selecting the peak of the StochRSI indicator or the opening price of the nearest bearish candle.
You can draw a trend line by connecting the low points of candles corresponding to the vertices of the trend line, which is drawn by connecting the low points.
For detailed instructions, please refer to the trend line displayed on the chart.
Among the trend lines drawn on the chart, I think that the trend line drawn almost horizontally is actually important.
Otherwise, I think it is a trend line drawn for chart analysis because it is difficult to use diagonal trend lines for trading.
In order to utilize a trend line expressed as a diagonal line, support and resistance points must be displayed together to be considered a trend line that can be used for trading.
When using various chart tools that are used by specifying a selection point, how the selection point is specified is very important.
Therefore, if the criteria are not clear when specifying the selection point, what is drawn using various chart tools cannot be trusted.
To solve this problem to some extent, we used the StochRSI indicator to draw a trend line.
(1D chart)
If you look at the trend lines drawn on the 1D chart, you can see that the two trend lines at the current price position are drawn close to the horizon.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained by breaking above the trend line of 1.
If this is not the case and it falls below trend line 2, it can be seen that there is a high possibility that it will lead to a further decline.
In that sense, the key is whether it can rise above the HA-High indicator, that is, above 43K.
If it falls, it is likely to touch the HA-Low indicator, so it is important to check for support near the HA-Low indicator when it is generated.
When drawing a trend line using the StochRSI indicator, vertices formed outside of oversold or overbought areas are excluded.
The reason is that the upward or downward intensity is weak.
This is to prevent confusion because if the rising or falling strength is weak, it is likely to be a fake or whipsaw.
It is important to draw in a way that has a solid basis so that you can trust the tools you draw on the chart.
StochRSI settings : 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D)
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
DWEB levels and local price trends #BTC This chart is for intermediate DWEB users for learning purposes and or for followers to use for trading this local price action. If trends fail look for the next trends and levels for confluence against a system you already trust. Trends are #1 and levels are #2. Trade this chart with more trust as the price respects the lines and or this chart aligns with your other charts (confluence).
By using the nodes and trends from DWEB , I was able to cast some unique visuals in terms of trends and levels. Using different candle intervals can often provide some hidden data. Often when you inverse the default intervals and indicators , you unhide even more data that is unseen by most. DWEB is very strict in it's parameters and often only makes minor adjustments between macro and micro charts.
The thresholds of ranges where DWEB makes wider changes to its parameters is listed below.
1 to 314 minutes
314 to 888 minutes
888 minutes to 1444 minutes
1D TO 3 D
3D to 1W
1W to 9D.
With DWEB on
Introduction to one of the basic trading methodsHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
Basic trading method
(How to purchase)
1. Aggressive buying when falling by more than -10%
2-1. Buy when there is an upward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle is a downward candle.
2-2. Buy when there is a downward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained below the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle breaks upward through important support and resistance points.
Therefore, buy when there is a rising candle.
(Selling method)
1. Split sale when it rises by more than +10%
2. Split selling when the high point cannot be renewed
-------------------------------------------------
The basic trading methods introduced above are methods that can be traded even if you are not familiar with chart analysis.
Among these, I will take the time to explain the trading method corresponding to 2-2 of the purchasing method.
You can know the trend based on the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
Currently, it has fallen below the MS-Signal indicator, and the MS-Signal indicator has been converted to a downward indication.
Therefore, it should be interpreted that there is a high possibility that the current downward trend will continue.
Therefore, in the basic trading method, you should buy when the candle is below the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, when it is in a downtrend.
Therefore, you should buy after confirming that the price breaks above the support and resistance points.
Basically, you can trade using HA-High, HA-Low indicators and box sections.
If you purchased when it fell more than -10% on January 12, you can proceed with a second purchase if it rises above the HA-High indicator.
You can proceed with aggressive buying when the HA-High indicator breaks above the 43450.03 point.
In that case, you will have to sell it in installments when it appears to be rising and then falling.
If you don't like it, you should check for support at 43450.03.
In order to confirm support, it is necessary to check for at least 1-3 days after rising above 43450.03.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Time is everythingA lot of people see a Bitcoin pullback, a drop or a red candle as a negative thing. Clearly this is lack of experience, lack of understanding and only ever seeing re-assurance of the one bias they can comprehend.
Many people believe my posts to be negative or anti Bitcoin - you could not be more wrong, as a very early holder, I simply don't care - up down or sideways. It's been kind to me and I will say it was more luck than judgement. Right place, right time.
But as a professional trader, money manager and tech investor - I have seen my fair share of market trends, hype, realism and shocks in the market to know. Time is all it takes.
You can go back over SPX for example and If you buy and hold the trend has only been up. Obvious its one of indices designed to go up. This does not make it a "get rich quick scheme"
For me the problem lies in the cult esq mentality and the desire to get rich quick.
When you have, or manage a larger fund - time is always less of an issue, when a Limited partner of a fund told me the company hold period was 15-20 years on average, it took a while to let that sink in. 1% of a lot of money is a lot of money, 1% of a $10,000 pushes you to want more - hence jumping on the up only bandwagon.
You need to remember;
Last year I posted two options for Bitcoin; I said my preferred route put us in early stage accumulation.
The second option went back even further than that, it's the Evil move I said I would hope Composite Man would not be as cruel.
Unfortunately with the move from 32k to 48k region, it's clear now the second play has in-fact been the one playing out.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here's some rational logic - the medicine most DO NOT WANT to swallow.
People seem to throw the same argument - ETF & Halving - They have very little else to contribute. So let's look at what an ETF is and does.
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) itself doesn't inherently stabilize an asset. However, the structure and mechanics of an ETF can have certain features that may contribute to perceived stability or liquidity in the underlying assets it represents. Here's how:
Diversification: ETFs often hold a diversified portfolio of assets. By pooling together various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities, they spread risk. This diversification can help mitigate the impact of poor performance in a single asset on the overall value of the ETF.
Arbitrage Mechanism: ETFs have a unique creation and redemption mechanism. Authorized Participants (usually large financial institutions) can create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, usually known as creation units. This process involves exchanging a basket of assets for ETF shares or vice versa. This helps to keep the market price of the ETF close to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its underlying assets, promoting stability.
Liquidity: ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, providing investors with liquidity. The ability to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day at market prices contributes to the perception of stability. The underlying assets might not be as easily tradable, but the ETF itself can be bought or sold like a stock.
Market Makers: In the secondary market, market makers play a crucial role in providing liquidity. They continuously quote buy and sell prices for the ETF shares, helping to ensure that there is a smooth and efficient market. This can reduce the impact of large buy or sell orders on the market price.
Now for some extra therapy, we also need to look at the realistic timeframes these large players operate at.
Blackrock's most popular ETF is their SPX (S&P500) fund. with it's inception around 2001 I believe.
$354BN.
Now if we look at Bitcoin's market cap - we dropped from $1.3 Trillion at the 69k High down to around 300Billion at the 15k low region.
So working out market cap is simple current price of Bitcoin x coins in circulation. (just over 19m).
This is just highlighting the obvious; Blackrock is not going to empty the SPX fund and stick $350Billion in a newly established fund. Again time, they have enough money to not need to force or risk anything on a large scale.
But what is interesting is the point above about market makers.
In Wall Street terms, a market maker is a financial institution or individual that facilitates the buying and selling of financial instruments in a market. Market makers play a crucial role in ensuring liquidity and maintaining orderly trading in financial markets, including stock exchanges.
Here are key aspects of what market makers do:
Liquidity Providers: Market makers stand ready to buy or sell a financial instrument (such as stocks, bonds, or options) at publicly quoted prices. This activity provides liquidity to the market, allowing investors to execute trades quickly and efficiently.
Bid and Ask Prices: Market makers quote bid and ask prices for a security. The bid price is the price at which they are willing to buy, and the ask price is the price at which they are willing to sell. The difference between these prices is known as the bid-ask spread.
Order Execution: When an investor places a market order to buy or sell a security, the market maker ensures that the trade is executed promptly by matching it with their own inventory or finding a counterparty in the market.
Risk Management: Market makers take on some level of risk by holding an inventory of securities. To manage this risk, they continuously adjust their bid and ask prices based on market conditions and changes in the supply and demand for the securities.
Arbitrage Opportunities: Market makers may engage in arbitrage, exploiting price differences between related financial instruments or markets. This helps ensure that the prices of the same or similar securities are consistent across different trading venues.
Maintaining Orderly Markets: Market makers contribute to the overall stability and efficiency of financial markets by preventing excessive volatility and ensuring a continuous flow of trading.
It's important to note that market makers profit from the bid-ask spread and trading volumes. While they facilitate trading and provide liquidity, they also manage their own risks. Market makers can be institutions like investment banks or specialized firms with expertise in particular markets. They play a crucial role in the smooth functioning of financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities.
=============================================
Market makers have been referred to another type of Composite Man. The term "Composite Man" is associated with the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis approach to understanding the stock market. The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, a stock market trader and educator from the early to mid-20th century. According to this method, the Composite Man represents a hypothetical market manipulator or a group of large market participants who have the power to influence the market.
In Wyckoff's view, the Composite Man is an entity that accumulates or distributes stocks in a way that leaves footprints on the price and volume charts. The actions of the Composite Man are believed to be observable through the analysis of price and volume patterns, helping traders and investors anticipate potential future price movements.
Here are the key ideas associated with the Composite Man in the Wyckoff Method:
Accumulation and Distribution: The Composite Man is thought to go through phases of accumulating or distributing a particular stock or market. During accumulation, the Composite Man is buying, and during distribution, they are selling.
Wyckoff Price Cycle: The Wyckoff Method outlines a price cycle that includes phases such as Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Traders using this method attempt to identify these phases on price charts to make more informed decisions.
Smart Money: The Composite Man is sometimes referred to as the "smart money" because it is assumed to have more information and resources than individual retail traders. Monitoring the actions of the smart money is believed to provide insights into potential market trends.
When I posted posts like this from the 65k high, it was due to these footprints being visible from space.
As the price moved up from the 28k region to the current ATH. Similar thing.
I am not here trying to drag it or you down, I am here trying to help see logic in the charts. As the move moved up, we had a fake ETF release, in essence thus pricing in the actual ETF.
This is why for me, this scenario is the most likely in the current environment.
Composite Man/Market makers are happy to use the fear and greed index, which is currently tilting heavy towards the greed side. Against retail traders who see ONLY UP as the only scenario available.
The space is becoming more like a cult and it's feel more and more like the simple definition of a pyramid scheme. Again, I am not saying that's what it is - I am in at the bottom my cards are on the table.
The space has become "if your friends join, they also need to invite more people, and the cycle continues. The person at the top gets money from everyone below, and the people at the bottom hope to make money by bringing in more people."
The problem is, there's no real product or service being sold. The only way people make money is by getting others to join. Eventually, it becomes harder for everyone to find new people, and those at the bottom end up losing money because there aren't enough new members to support the structure. This kind of scheme is not fair or sustainable and can cause a lot of people to lose their money. Especially when the big boys get involved with very little regulation covering the people at the bottom.
Just remember everyone was saying "anti banks, anti institutional yet celebrating the ETF's like a win" the issue here is it's likely to stabilise the asset, slowing the phases and cycles down to a more mellow growth curve over the next 20 years.
In the grand scheme of things, it's great for the industry, but we can expect more manipulation prior to regulation, post regulation the percentage gains will narrow.
Keep all of this in mind and remember it's what the majority wanted. Stay safe! have fun and see you on the next post.
Hate comments always welcome - just please back them up with some logic and show you have more than 3 brain cells. 😉
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. CorrelationIn the graph, combined into one graph of the dominance of such stablecoins as USDT and USDC.
Orange color—chart of the bitcoin price against the dollar.
The time interval is 1 week. The graph is logarithmic.
The same chart and the same parameters on the candlestick chart .
All BTC price lows and highs are specially shown. Compare what the capitalization of stablecoins was at the time.
At an earlier time, the dominant stablecoin was one USDT, later USDC was added. They occupy a significant capitalization. BUSD and DAI are less capitalized. They too can be added to this “indicator” of the Pumps/Dumps market.
I think the dominance history and the bitcoin overlay chart illustrate well which market phase and in which areas to buy and sell bitcoins and other speculative crypto coins.
Centralized Stablecoin capitalization of a decentralized market .
Sounds crazy, doesn't it? The dominance of centralized in a decentralized market. The 3rd,4th,6th places are naturally occupied by centralized stablecoins such as: #USDT #USDC #BUSD.
This kind of decentralized cryptocurrency financial world (freedom from the dictatorship of banks, power states, and so on) did you imagine, for example, in 2015-2017? Is it good or bad? What will happen after a while? What trend will develop further after the community bait has been swallowed?
3rd place . USDT ( .... "Reds" .... )
$67,562,687,657
4th place . USDC (Circle, Coinbase, JPMorgan, Blackrock .... )
$51,726,419,583
6th place . BUSD (Binance)
$20,003,320,692
13th place DAI ETH (!)
BTC and ETH dominance.
Continuing on this “democracy” theme of crypto sandbox capitalization. Today 14 09 2022.
Market Cap: $989,560,104,72
Dominance:
#BTC: 38.9%
#ETH: 19.9%
Total 2 assets: 58,7%
Also add 3,4,6,13 top stablecoins to this.
Stablecoins over 20%.
Almost 60% of the market is 2 assets.
Over 80% of the market is 6 assets.
So much for the true mythology of decentralization ))).
How to look for a “live chart” for yourself and combine the dominance of USDT and USDC:
1) Look for the MARKET CAP USDT DOMINANCE, %
2) On the right side of the chart in the search field, press the + button
3) Write MARKET CAP USDC DOMINANCE, %.
For the analysis, it will also be useful to track at the same time:
1) BTC dominance
2) US dollar index (DXY, USDX)
BTC dominance
BTC to altcoin dominance. Stablecoin dominance and market pamp.
US Dollar Index (Fed)with prices of BTC lows/maxims. Correlation of assets.
DXY and PampDump BTCMarkets Cycles.
This is what it looks like on a line chart to illustrate simple correlation things.
Preparedness for force majeure.
I would also like to say that all stabelcoins are focused on the "stability" of the U.S. dollar. Think about what would happen if, for some reason, that stability were to be undermined in the blink of an eye. Then you are faced with a very difficult choice.
What to do? Sell/buy cryptocurrency/shares? Just think ahead "What do you do" if, purely hypothetically, for some fantastic, hard-to-imagine reasons this happens. Think ahead in today's calm time (are you sure it's not calm now?), so you won't be caught off guard in a turbulent time.
Chart analysis and trading strategy are differentHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support around 36426.87 and rise to the first resistance zone.
This period of volatility will be around November 16 (November 15-17).
If it fails to rise above 36426.87, it is important to see whether support can be found around 32917.17-34110.32.
In order for this upward trend to be maintained, the price must be maintained above 29850.45.
If you have analyzed the chart with the above information, the important question is how to start trading, that is, how to create a trading strategy.
First, I decided that I could start buying when I saw support at a certain point or section through chart analysis, but I realized that I had to make several more decisions to actually buy.
1. Should I buy it in installments? If I buy it in installments, how many installments will I buy it in?
2. How much investment should be made when purchasing?
3. How to set the investment period between day trading and long-term trading.
4. When starting a transaction, how will you decide on a trading method, such as a stop-loss point or target point, and how will you realize profits?
As in the example above, in order to make a transaction, you need to think about and decide on many things.
However, when the chart analysis is completed and the time to buy comes, buy with a rough investment amount, roughly think about the stop-loss point and target point, and start trading.
And then, if the chart moves as expected, it's good, but if it doesn't, then you have to worry about the above.
Then, I think that because your thoughts are influenced by price fluctuations, you end up trading in the wrong direction, increasing the chances of your trading failing.
Therefore, you must have some basic understanding of trading strategy to be able to trade quickly.
The concept of a basic trading strategy can be customized to suit you using the example below.
1. The purchase principal, purchase method, selling method, stop-loss point determination method, and profit realization method must be standardized for each investment period.
Therefore, the basic concept of investment period from day trading to long-term trading must be determined in advance.
However, since each coin (token) responds differently, it is not easy to divide them accurately.
Therefore, you must first consider the size of the purchase principal and stop loss point for each investment period.
2. Trading must ultimately proceed with a contrarian approach.
Therefore, you should not proceed with trading by thinking the way you normally think.
Therefore, when the price rises, you must choose a point to sell, and when the price falls, you must choose a point to buy.
However, if you are new to trading, you want to buy when the price is rising and sell when the price is falling.
Since trading requires such a change in thinking, it is not easy to get used to it.
Therefore, it is necessary to take time to become familiar with trading by making many transactions with small investments until this change in thinking occurs naturally.
3. Trading is a psychological battle.
Therefore, if you start trading psychologically, you will feel psychologically anxious and burdened, and there is a high possibility that you will proceed with trading in the wrong direction.
Therefore, when you are about to start trading, you need to determine what your psychological state is like.
If you are judged to be psychologically excited, that is, anxious, you should not start trading.
Even if you start trading once or twice and make a profit, if you continue to trade while you are in a psychologically anxious or excited state, you will end up incurring large losses.
4. Additionally, trading is a game of probability.
Therefore, you must select a trend by combining various information obtained through chart analysis.
Therefore, the information obtained from chart analysis must contain a lot of objective information.
The analysis techniques that you study, such as wave theory or other patterns, ultimately have no choice but to be applied to your own psychology.
Therefore, rather than such information, you should start trading by selecting a higher direction or trend by combining the basic information obtained by using the chart indicators, that is, objective information.
There are a ton of chart analysis techniques out there.
However, I think that analysis techniques that have a selection point that you must choose are essentially useless if you are not prepared for the three psychological warfare mentioned above because it is highly likely that your psychology will be applied in the end.
Looking at the ideas currently published on TradingView, there seem to be a lot of wave theory and harmonic pattern analysis techniques.
These analysis techniques are excellent analysis techniques and have been proven by many users.
However, if you do not have a trading strategy like the one I mentioned earlier, you have no choice but to analyze charts and conduct other transactions.
Therefore, before studying various chart analysis techniques, you must first study the concepts of candles, moving averages, support and resistance.
Then you need to practice creating a trading strategy.
Once you are able to create a trading strategy to some extent, I think it would be a good idea to study various high-level chart analysis techniques.
In fact, if you can create a trading strategy, there is no need for advanced chart analysis techniques.
As I have said repeatedly, the more time you invest in chart analysis, thinking that chart analysis is the same as a trading strategy, the more you will inevitably feel the limitations of your trading skills.
This is because there are many cases where you cannot proceed with trading as you analyzed, so you have no choice but to be negative about trading.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------