Today, we delve into the crucial market phases, focusing on the dynamics of accumulation and distribution, along with the concepts of BOS (Breakout of Structure), Sweep, Range, and Liquidity. Understanding these phases is essential for developing an informed trading strategy and improving trading decisions. The market goes through various phases, such as...
Time – 3 Nov 5am AEDT / 6PM GMT (Jay Powell speaks at 05:30 AEDT) Central bank meetings are just so important to sentiment and market structure – when we’re trading a major market theme, such as inflation and rising interest rates, this is the market’s chance to mark-to-market policy changes and how the collective in the bank guide our expectations for future...
US real rates drive everything in markets right now, and if they are going up then so is the USD, while equity will head lower – for context, the 1-month rolling correlation (assessed by value, not percentage) between US 10-yr real rates and the USDX sits at +0.94 – so there is an incredibly strong relationship. This is also true of equities, where the US real...
Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates: I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks. The early 2022 the conclusions were: - Bonds: A bull market...
In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week...
TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro...
For more detail please refer to the first four pieces in the series (linked below) and the accompanying charts. Markets entered 2022 with well established trends and trading ranges, but I believe that the coming year holds significant potential for change. This is particularly true in the equity and treasury markets. Because much of the outlook hinges on...
A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices while rising bond yields are synonymous with lower bond prices. In other words, a yield downtrend is the same thing as a bull market in bonds. Last week we published macro overviews of rates and equities that should be referred to for context. 1) A weekly close above the 1.77% would...
Before you trade stocks, bitcoin, FX, bonds or anything you have to try and understand how our monetary system works not to miss the big picture. This video helps you by providing a 10.000 foot view of the global macro landscape. Don't miss the forest for the trees. Tune in and enjoy!
I was taught in undergrad that adding to the money supply is inflationary . The logic was, you print more bills; the existing currency gets diluted in buying power. Following the ‘Crises of 2008’ the Fed launches Quantitative easing and purchases long term securities increasing the money supply and lowering rates. This activity would result in more investment...