First, a review of last week’s forecast:
The experts suggested that GBP/USD would be moving in a sideways channel of 1.4900-1.5250. It did happen – the pair pushed off the top boundary of the channel on Monday, went down decisively and came to a standstill at the bottom boundary of 1.4893 Friday night.
Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions...
First, a review of the forecast for the past week:
The GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228.
...
GBPUSD has approached for 3rd time in recent hours dynamic level at 1.5060.
Likely scenario: following positive EURUSD dynamics, GBPUSD closes above 1.5060 which confirms buy entry targeting 1.5160 area.
Alternative scenario: kick down from 1.5060 to 1.4970, then another leg up to 1.5160.
This idea is an updated view on a broader GBPUSD outlook.
This Analysis is inline with our Fundamental Outlook for the 3rd Week of November
Hacking the Fundamentals
UK's Inflation was singled out as the main reason for BoE's decision to delay hiking rates. The BoE has also forecasted that it might take longer for Inflation to recover. The CPI y/y that will be released an hour from now is expected to deflate by...
GBPUSD remained in the ascending channel range. During today GBPUSD is sitting on channel's lower line currently at 1.5210, a confirmed break below it is needed to open SELL order.
Target 1.5110.
*If GBPUSD retraces back into channel, it rises to 1.5260, 1.5285 (follow yellow lines above).
The GBP/USD pair has some important levels of support/resistance beneath them: 1.5350, 1.5175, and 1.4975. They are significant because the retracement of the fall from 7/2014 may be over, and the question is can the 6/2015 high hold and will price begin to descend to the 04/2015 lows.
This downward sloping pitchfork and the story of a price it tells is...
The last few weeks have broken my main idea and was need a time for understand what are happening and what will next.
Anyway, now wave count are looking more clearly than before, although I miss a good trend.
I remarked waves and now I think this pair are doing wave (c) of ((2)) .
There wave 3 looks almost end and I wait a small decline to wave 4 which...
In Previous idea I wrote that I waited the end of correction to the fall from 1.719. The pair did good correction wave ((2)) with clearly structure. After market fell down again. I did short, which have closed vis wave ((ii)) and after I missed a short opportunities.
So. What next?
There wave count have been getting not clearly last week. But now this pair...
Technical on the chart.
Fundamentals:
After BOC Poloz comments. Puts the Bull back in control in this pair.
He Repeats that drop in oil prices very significant shock for Canada
He Repeats that oil price drop is front-loaded, one-time shock
Aiming for highs 1.9100s
Not for a new highs for this pair. If we get more hawkish tone from BOE that could be case but...
Looking for valid reason to be short NZD.
We had an interesting headline today :
Morgan Stanley on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:
RBNZ's "first move to be a 25bp cut in 4Q15, as inflation expectations remain subdued and major trading partners' central banks continue to ease monetary policy"
Technicals on the chart
On a last trade that succeed to catch the previous downtrend :
We identified a Upward trend line and RSI divergence on a major pivot level acting as strong resistance to the price.
This time it's Big Round Number 1.50000 and double bottom in formation acting as support for a LONG with a possible bounce over downtrend tunnel.
Waiting for price action with...
Multiple confluences showing possible drop of pound against U.S dollar :
- Price currently on Resistance that match with Round Number 1.55 and Last swing Fibonacci 0.236
- Bear Pennant in a down trend, waiting to be broken
Waiting for reversal PA to trigger a SHORT
Currency Strenght Cross-analyze : GBP meets resistances on most of the other pairs, it confirms my...
