A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive...
Do you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone...
Across the board 10 year bonds look scary. The italy 10 yr is so clear i figured id publish it. Same with Cadanian 10 yr, US 10 yr. Central banks must be shitting themselves. It'll be an interesting next week or 2.
On this Monthly Chart we can see the correlation between the 10Y Government Bonds (in teal) vs. the Dollar Index - DXY (in light orange). The correlation is somewhat pretty strong and the 10Y can be used to somewhat predict moves in the Dollar Index (DXY). Now looking at the Daily chart, we can see that the 10Y has been growing from a support level of...
Knock knock. Who's there? I. O. I. O. who? Me. When are you paying Treasury holders back? Never! Bullish Breakout ...to be continued... The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
I'm testing this correlation and looking at the bounce-up for the 10-year yields To buy indices and sell gold, let's see :) Let me hear from you..
The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the end of January in the aftermath of a Bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Now, prices are approaching the December high at 3.905 after confirming a breakout above a falling trendline from October. Meanwhile, a bullish Golden Cross is set to form between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, further...
Zoom out and in Oct US 10 Year yields hit a supply level from Dec 2018 which started that big rally, we rejected hard from that in Oct. Now heading into resistance on shorter timeframes that started the other two major equities bottoms. If this rejects here which I think it can that will keep the rally continuing.
In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-2year. I also have the 10-03mo chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!
The 10 year T is fighting the line. A bounce and break of current downtrend could mean more pain. But a break of the secondary support would demolish the bears as it would signal my long-expected blow-off top in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned.
The last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened. Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength. The FED has made it clear there will...
@ Dec meeting Dec 14 Cur Rate 3.75 4 3.75 4 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 Fed Hikes 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.25 0.25 Future Rate 4 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.75 4.5 4.75 4.125 4.375 4.625 4.625
oil and gold are trying to go higher but the consumer is tapped out. #deflation
The US 10-year Treasury yield left behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart this Friday. This is as the bond tested a rising range of support from August. A turn higher from here could open the door to revisiting the October high of 4.33. Otherwise, breaking lower exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which could reinstate the...
According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020. It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue! The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org While...
Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the...
10yr keep an eye Got a H&S formation, keep an eye if we break down further there are key support areas IF this continues further. However, we are at key support and don't forget month end. Have a great weekend 🎉 TJ
The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average...