Simon_says

Prediction of next financial downturn

Simon_says Updated   
According to FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interes... there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.

It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!

The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2...

While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!

It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
Comment: Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread, Official NY FED website

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/...

The Most Scary and Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now:

https://youtu.be/Bs1_8r4oS_E
Comment: Bond market anticipating future Fed rate cuts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gYwGq47...
Comment: The Entire Treasury Yield Curve Is 'Inverted'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entire...
Comment: Here we go again: Bank of America calls for 50 basis point cut at Fed's March meeting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud1ZaiFi...
Comment: Two weeks before Official FOMC meeting, Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat Coronavirus slowdown - that escalated very quickly!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts...
Comment: Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, Dow Down 1,000, VIX Explodes As Spoos Crater

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market...
Comment: Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Lehman Despite Biggest Fed Bailout Ever

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks...
Comment: Very nice video, please watch: Will the Coronavirus TRIGGER a Global Recession?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc38v9yh...

These Updating Charts Show How Many People Are Losing Their Jobs Amid The Coronavirus Pandemic

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lam...
Comment: The US will have negative interest rates in 2020/21, FED just needs another wave of nCov19 as an excuse!
Comment: Bloomberg urges users to get set for negative US rates
https://www.ft.com/content/4542185a-0017...

The stock market didn't plunge due to gigantic stimulus i.e. money-printing!

Please check out this very nice visualisation of $10+ Trillion 2020 Economic Stimulus in Cash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPHEM4gE...
Trade active: If you agree with my analysis and would like to receive more signals or want me to post more charts, please get in touch or donate:

Bitcoin wallet: 361JK8fe6dLoqZ3Ztg8Uwg2n2m6jyVHigS

Litecoin wallet: MG2eK4HTSMT4xNpeAGRzHccXGfDS3b2Tk8

Ripple wallet: rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg

Thanks
Simon_says
Comment: 'Recovery' Hopes Fade As US Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Plunge In June

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recove...
Comment: Gold And Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-a...
Comment:
Comment: The most predictable global financial crisis

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-most-pred...
Trade active: JPM: "Bond Yields Are Likely To Move Higher From Here" But The Real Question Is "What's Behind The Move"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-bo...

You've got to Pump it up,
Don't you know Pump it up!!

Danzel - Pump It Up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HtyF0ju...
Comment: We are already in a crisis that nobody wants to announce:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFU...

Obviously healthcare crisis related to nCov19 is more important :-/
Comment: Plenty of various indicators

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/9/u...
Comment: "Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates may have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating" - that will be the last nail to the coffin and will inevitably cause the yield curve to move higher and flip the market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury...
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3ygJbJj... #CNBCTV

"Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel"
Comment:
Comment: A Major BEARISH Signal Not Seen for 14 Years (Market and Crypto Analysis)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5CmpLGa...
Comment: Alarm bells over a possible recession from raising interest rates too quickly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB_KriDI...
Comment:
Comment:
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.