It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2...
While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!
It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
stocks/ indices bullish
does that make sense?
So 2013 situation is not valid as the difference between 10 and 2Y treasuries didn't go below '0' zero!
Please check this plot https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php