With TLT at nosebleed heights the question obviously becomes, is it time to switch into equities yet?
As you can see TLT (red line) reaches fever pitch levels almost always at excellent entry points into equities, going back all the way to the GFC this has held true.
TLT for what it's worth is also extremely extended, driven to these heights on trade fears,...
There are some important signs of correction scuch as new top formation and the price presence on steep slope of diagonal support line. The price existence in a pseudo symmetrical triangle is confirmed in also H1 and 30 min. I will be happy if you share your ideas in comments. Best regards
Does anyone else see a simile with August 2015? In that month Usd-Cnh jumped from 6.20 to 6.60, S&P 500 -15%, copper -9%, and Eur-Usd has reached a gain of over 700 pips.
“China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US...
Steven Mnuchin the Treasury Secretary.
His background and role to the 2008 crisis and of course deep connections with his boss, President Trump.
Insight of a high probability return of investment on Fannie and Freddie preferred shares issued by Merrill Lynch,...
Despite the roller coaster in the stock markets, the treasuries could still be pricing in a contraction in the economy. The higher the 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury prices go, the lower the rates get on the longer end of the yield curve.
With the current setup in the US 30 Year T-Bond, there is support on the Minor Pivot Stack and the Monthly Pivot Range high....
The 10 Year has just bounced off near the 120'20'0 Resistance on 1D and based on the neutral 1W action (RSI = 46.325, STOCH = 54.180, Highs/Lows = 0.000), it should reverse towards the 119'02'5 support. Our short's TP is 119'09'0.
While investors are moving in for safe returns, the market and FED seems to be into a Chinese box. The underlying risk could push the US10Y through the roof and easily take it to 3.54. However, the Federal Reserve should be cautious, now more than ever.
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In a world where bunds and JGBs are zero bound, why wouldn't 3% yield and an appreciating USD be attractive to global investors? There is a weekly ABCD completion in the TY1! on high volumes which coincides with a major multi-decade structural uptrend support. A break above 119.40 in the 240M chart would be confirmation. A long in the UST10 can be hedged off...
Analysis of important data ametrics for 13 December fed rate hike based on fedwatch - fed funds futures - > www.cmegroup.com
COTs data used: non commercial long and short data as % of open interest ...
FED announced balance trimming.
The technicals perfectly match that decision (always a matter of disputes between tech analysts and macro analysts).
We got large correction before and broke below it.
Now the price made a perfect pullback to the broken line shaping my favorite Bear Flag pattern.
Watch to sell on breakdown.
Entry plan is based on the US 30yr T-Bonds Topping Pattern.
Watching the fib retrace area for a high that would establish the right shoulder within the monthly head and shoulder pattern.
Quarterly bull cycle counts point towards a high during Q1 '18 which aligns with the monthly target of February '18. My trading account would welcome an earlier high with open...
A break above 2.50 should revitalize the longer term move back to 3% and get the USD out of its current range and back into an uptrend.
Testing Decembers highs should follow this across the board on euro, pound and yen.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact mode.. on!
Textbook consolidation as we wait for more signals from the FOMC. Fed futures showing no hike in March but two hikes by December, expect another leg up once subsequent meetings start pricing in. Good time to scale in.
One of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation.
There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.