First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
US1Y: Bullish
US2Y: Bullish
US5Y:...
VELOCITY:USTEC almost completing AB=CD pattren at higher time frame and it is a reversal sign for us tech 100 ,so it must reverse from here other wise if breaks last low than can be sell out at retesting.
Bitcoin comparison to US 10y treasury yeilds (inversed). BTC and risk on assets close to bottom but not there yet. 10 year treasury yields (inversed) bottoms and takes off before Bitcoin follows..
According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org
While...
As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields...
We have an Head and Shoulders pattern visible on the weekly and a tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve; As we continue to tighten i expect that the rate of Inflation will go down and as the Rate of Inflation goes down so will the CPI and with that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities otherwise known as TIPS should lose the Value it's gained...
Bonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We...
There is RSI Bullish Divergence at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that's Visible on the Weekly Timeframe. This may also signal the beginning of a moderate pullback within the DXY as initially, I expect the DXY to show a Negative Correlation with Rising US BOND prices.
A longer term look at the US 30 Year Bonds reveals that the yields have broken to the upside of 2 standard deviation of the linear regression channel.
In a way bonds have already executed the FED rate hikes.
You can get around 3% yield on a US 30 year bond.
Question is if the bond market will track lower increasing yield rates even further.
Depending on your...
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion.
All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing.
We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
I'v been tacking this Gartley for a while now and eager to post it but opted to wait until it got closer to the PCZ before i posted and now we are pretty much here; This could signal the end of Rising Treasury Yields and the beginning of a Recovery Period within Equities and Securities. I will be taking profit on my Yearly TLT PUTs and buying some Yearly CALLs next week.
Last year I uploaded a series of charts tracking the US10 Year Yield from it's Bottom to where it is now the US10 Year Yield so far has reacted exactly how it was planned and it dragged the DXY up with it; However, the 10 Year Yield is now reaching very close towards it' target and from there we may see a Bearish Reaction that could eventually be followed up by a...
We're looking at the US Government 10-year Treasury yield again and this time we're going back in time multiple decades to see the significance of where we are right now. High stakes area, to say the least.
US 10-year yields are slamming back down into the 1.72 breakout zone going back to March of 2021. We're at a logical spot to bounce, but beware of a continued move lower just as the prevailing opinion is that interest rates must rise.
Losing 1.70 and holding below on a closing basis would be an important change of character.
