If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it!
In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.)
Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels.
Wait for signs of a reversal, though.
p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.)
Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels.
Wait for signs of a reversal, though.
p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
