THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT.
Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends?
Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape.
Let's see how they close.
30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend.
#mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate.
Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024.
Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The...
GOOD MORNING!
Didn't have time to post yesterday.
Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\
10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted.
30 Yr yield topped the following day!
#stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)
Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!.
You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT?
Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely...
GOOD MORNING!
#interestrates look like they want to slow down a bit, short term top.
We see the 10Y & 30Y pulling back a bit...
But this is better seen intraday.
We'll see how that unfolds...
IF IT DOES, it could cause a sharp rise in #Stocks.
Coincidentally, DJ:DJI @ support & TVC:NDQ is near a major support.
TVC:TNX AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ
Good Afternoon!
Long Term #interestrates are PUMPING today!!!
The 10 & 30 Yr have been struggling in this area.
They are currently forming a negative divergence. We'll see how that goes.
3Month - 1Yr haven't moved much.
2Year #yield is also moving. This is "good"! That means that the normalization of yield curve is not happening yet.
#stocks #gold #silver
Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels
Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields
If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation)
They need to pause at worst start reducing rates.
My guess?
Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian...
The biggest news in 2022 is not AAPL nor TSLA. It is the sell-off in bonds that has been
taking place the first 2 days of the year that are now breaking key structures that few
are talking about but soon will be.
While many will be quick to point out this is not the 80's inflation, my response to them
is it doesn't need to be so much more debt both private and...
If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it!
In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in...
Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher!
There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic.
This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap.
We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates.
NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE
To obtain this information, we need to look at four things:
-Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy.
-US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor...
hello,
here is one more layer of confluence,
to back up my spx case.
---
to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop,
but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3.
what is a 3-3-3?
glad you ask anon:
a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure,
designed to kill time mostly-
labeled w-x-y.
wxy = double zig-zag
these channel...
good eve'
---
decided to update my primary today, to further align with the current states of the market.
my upside target remains the same, at 5.9%--6% into 2024, but i think we go slightly lower locally, into june before it pops.
summer time is historically quite bullish in the market, so a slight pause on rates to align with seasonality makes sense.
thanks...
gm,
called the top on the us10y last year as well.
(view post at the bottom of this thread).
swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries.
---
jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time.
what this tells me, is...
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS.
POINTS:
1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with...
We will have a deflationary crisis before super inflationary crisis. During the upcoming rate cycle we will have inflation going up at the same time as rates. Welcome to a new world. At least in the US. I've been saying this for years, higher rates only compensate inflation it doesn't fight inflation.
I received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2
The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure...
![US10Y: 4-27-23 [us10y]](https://s3.tradingview.com/z/Zr1bprvq_mid.png "4-27-23 [us10y]")
![US10Y: 4-19-23 [us10y]](https://s3.tradingview.com/d/DXzFMfBN_mid.png "4-19-23 [us10y]")
