GOLD can be a defensive asset, as geopolitical risks still high

Pandorra Updated   
BATS:IAU   iShares Gold Trust Shares of the iShares Gold Trust
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate.

Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024.

Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The bias remains bullish despite minor retreats.

A new higher high may activate further growth. Only a valid breakdown below the pivot point opens the door for a corrective phase.
The gold price resumed its growth today, reaching the $1,990 level.

The bias is bullish despite minor downside corrections. XAUUSD returned higher even though the Dollar Index rallied after the US Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI announced expansion.

Gold has taken its position as a safe haven value asset. Over the past several years Gold trades on positive path, where short-term average (1yr SMA) still above long-term average (5yrs SMA) for a 6th year in a row, since Q1'18.

The main technical graph says, that potentially technical figure known as "Reversed Head and Shoulders" is in progress, with further upside price action in a case of return back, above $2'000 per ounce.
The main graph is for iShares Gold ETF IAU that seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of gold.

Trade active:
Oct 27, 2023

💡 Gold is almost back to USD 2 000 per ounce.

Trade active:
Nov 21, 2023

👉 Gold XAUUSD is Back to 2000++ per ounce.
👉 It is VERY IMPORTANT Golden Bulls must be at close of fat timeframe like 1Mo or 3/ 6/ 12 Mo (what is better) above 2000 US dollars.

Trade active:
Dec 1, 2023

GOLD finally is at $2000++ at monthly (November, 2023) close.
First time historically ever.

- What is Next?!
- FF Rate Goes Down. Shortly. Very very shortly.
Trade active:
Dec 4, 2023

Just as $2'000 Milestone has been taken at the end of calendar month (November), Gold prices quickly hit a record high on Monday as investors prepare for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024.

The NYMEX Gold Continuous Contract peaked at $2,152.30 per ounce on Monday, before paring gains to around $2,087.

Gold prices are appr. 10-15% year to date.

The recent surge has been supercharged by increasing expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve is not only done with its interest rate hiking regime, but that it could cut interest rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024.

The CME Fed Watch Tool currently projects that the Fed will institute its first rate cut at its FOMC meeting in March with next year's cuts totaling 125 basis points.

Some economists expect even more cuts. ING forecasts 150 basis points in 2024 and a further 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. If those predictions prove correct, gold prices might not be done rising.

That's because alternative like cash will be a lot less appealing to investors as interest rates start to fall. Gold prices also tend to rise when the Federal Reserve is in easing mode, whether it's cutting interest rates or increasing its balance sheet, on fears of potential inflation as well as the long-term effects that easing could have on the stability of the US dollar and economy.

Trade active:
Dec 26, 2023

🎅 Gold Goes Parabolic Again, isn't it!?

Merry Xmas y'all, and a Happy New Year


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.