Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the...
News this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion.
ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should
The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will
intervene heavily.
Macro Data Ahead:
MONDAY, MAY 16
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May
TUESDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8%
8:30...
Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction.
The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the
market volatility of March 2020.
Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted
the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen
porch door open for a...
The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no
predatory creatures lurking about.
Please ignore the Trend.
Our assumptions include:
The Herd is always Correct.
CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect".
Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO.
TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a
small bump on the road until 172.
Debt doesn't matter, It's...
Substantial Further Progress in Trade.
$120Billion in Taxpayer's Future Monies down the drain.
Job Creation does not come from the Prop in Equities.
Share Buybacks do not create Jobs nor do they have a lasting
effect upon Economic Activity.
They do, however - create issues for Bond Holders as Inflation
takes hold and remains persistent.
Wall Street fooled...
Pricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price.
Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the
January to April adjustment.
Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell.
Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the
most important Week we have had in Months, Since February.
TNX has run-up to its -.236, a...
Price is moving in a well-defined channel on the Shorter duration.
The DX remains stubbornly over 94, a level that appears to be acting
as Support for now.
A pause that refreshes, one that TLT is attempting to make sense of
in its way to 139.
TLT tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the US Treasury
with remaining maturities of 20 years or more out...
With extensive YCC - Price continues to move lower, creating an
even larger Divergence between Price and Yield.
Not at all constructive for Buyers.
Bonds are going to continue to grind up the Bigger Lies.
ROCs spooked the FED, so they are busy tamping down the
Fears.
Issue is, the Fear is all about Trust.
That has clearly broken.
