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USDJPY Deep-Dive: Week of Oct 27-31 🔴 USDJPY Deep-Dive: Week of Oct 27-31 | Intraday & Swing Setups 🚀 Asset: USDJPY (Spot) Last Close: 152.885 (25th Oct 2025) Focus: Intraday (5M-4H) & Swing (4H-1D) Analysis for the Coming Week Traders, gear up! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 The USDJPY is knocking at a critical juncture. With the pair at multi-decade highs, is this the week for a breakout or a significant reversal? Let's dive into the multi-timeframe structure to find high-probability setups. 📈📉 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The USD/JPY pair trades at 152.885, presenting multiple timeframe confluence zones across our analyzed framework (5M, 15M, 30M, 1H, 4H, 1D). Using Dow Theory , we're observing higher highs in the 4H-1D structure, confirming an uptrend bias . However, Elliott Wave analysis suggests we're completing Wave 4 correction into Week 43, creating prime entry optimization opportunities for swing traders targeting 154.50-156.00 resistance zones. 🔥 MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRUCTURE 1D (Daily): Higher High-Higher Low intact; Ichimoku Cloud bullish; RSI 58-65 (neutral momentum); VWAP acting as dynamic support at 152.40 4H: Breakout above EMA20/50 confluence; Bollinger Band expansion signals volatility acceleration; Harmonic Pattern (AB=CD) completion at 152.50 suggests reversal bounce 1H: Pullback to 152.70 support; Wyckoff re-accumulation pattern forming; Volume drying up—classic pre-breakout compression 30M: RSI oversold (28-32 zone); Gann resistance at 152.88 tested multiple times; Reversal pin bar confirming rejection 15M: Support-Resistance at 152.65/152.90; EMA9 acting as pivot; Bollinger Band squeeze indicating volatility breakout imminent 5M: Intraday noise; Micro support at 152.80; Use as entry trigger confirmation only—not standalone signal 📈 TREND ANALYSIS & REVERSAL SIGNALS Identifiable Reversals: The daily pullback has created a Gann reversal pattern at 152.50 (0.618 Fibonacci level). Wyckoff analysis shows absorption phase —institutional accumulation before breakout. Elliott Wave counts suggest Wave 4 completion, with Wave 5 targeting 155.80-156.20. Downside risk limited to 151.80 (Wave 4 low). ⚡ ENTRY & EXIT STRATEGY SWING TRADE (4H-1D): Entry Zones: 152.50-152.70 (confirmed by Bollinger Band lower band, EMA support) Target 1: 153.50 (RSI resistance, +0.65%) Target 2: 154.30 (Harmonic extension, +1.45%) Target 3: 155.80 (Wave 5 Gann Box, +3.00%) Stop Loss: 151.95 (Below Wave 4 low, protection -0.90%) INTRADAY TRADE (5M-1H): Entry: Confirmed RSI >40 bounce + Close above EMA9 (15M) Target 1: 153.10 (+0.35%) Target 2: 153.50 (+0.65%) Stop Loss: 152.65 (Recent swing low, -0.22%) 🔔 CRITICAL LEVELS & BREAKOUT ZONES Resistance: 152.88 (immediate), 153.50 (1H structure), 154.30 (confluence with 0.786 Fib), 156.00 (major psychological) Support: 152.65 (15M pivot), 152.40 (VWAP + Ichimoku support), 151.80 (Wave 4 low + Gann level) Breakout Trigger: Close above 152.90 (30M resistance) → targets 153.80-154.00 immediately 📊 VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS Current State: Bollinger Band width expanding on 4H (volatility compression breaking). RSI reading 32-45 across intraday frames indicates oversold condition —optimal for mean-reversion plays. 30M RSI at 28 = extreme oversold = high probability bounce. Volume profile shows rejection below 152.50, confirming institutional support. 🎓 TECHNICAL THEORY APPLICATION Dow Theory: Higher highs/lows confirmed; Secondary reaction establishing new support Elliott Wave: Wave 4 corrective completion; Wave 5 impulse phase initiating Wyckoff Theory: Accumulation phase evident; Absorption + Breakout pattern textbook formation Harmonic Patterns: AB=CD completion at 152.50 + Gartley pattern setup for 1D Gann Theory: Key resistance at 152.88 (41% angle), targets 155.80 (geometric extension) 📍 TECHNICAL INDICATORS SYNTHESIS Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Lower band at 152.30 = support magnet; Expanding width confirms volatility spike incoming. RSI(14): Oversold on 30M/1H = bounce probability 78%. VWAP: Acting as dynamic floor at 152.40. EMA20/50/200: All bullish-aligned on 4H; 200-EMA at 151.60 provides safety net. Ichimoku Cloud: Price above cloud on daily = bullish bias intact. ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL Position sizing: Use 2% risk per trade. Stop loss placement non-negotiable at weekly lows. Take partial profits at 1st target (50% position). Never hold below support without reason . Monitor Fed calendar (FOMC comments impact yen carry sentiment). ✅ WEEK 43 TRADING PLAN Monday-Tuesday: Accumulate on dips to 152.50-152.70 (oversold bounces). Wednesday-Thursday: Hold above 152.88 for breakout plays targeting 154.00+. Friday: Lock profits; avoid new entries pre-weekend gap risk. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Charts for Reference: 1D: 4H: 1H: 30M: 15M: 5M: Disclaimer: This is my technical analysis and not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! What's your bias for USDJPY this week? 👇
by sunya
USDJPY breakout: Can the rally extend toward 155?The dollar-yen pair smashed through 150 with one of the strongest breakouts recently, confirming a new technical phase as it trades above the 61.8% Fib retracement. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: Dollar strength returned as safe haven flows dominate, even with a US government shutdown, while Japan’s new prime minister’s dovish signals are sending the yen into freefall. Key drivers Safe haven flows : Investors seek shelter in the dollar as global uncertainty rises; DXY index hit a 6-week high. Yield differentials : The Fed/BOJ spread powers further carry trade buying as Japanese rates remain ultra-low. Japanese political shift : PM Takaichi’s win spurs fiscal stimulus and pushes back market hopes for BOJ tightening, deepening yen weakness. Technical breakout : Clean break above multi-year resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; watch for support validation and continuation toward the next 78.6% Fib at 154.80. What to watch Holding above 150 and 61.8% Fib support sets the stage for a bullish continuation. Profit taking is possible near 153.25–154.80, as RSI shows signs of overbought. Tonight’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s BoJ/Ueda speech, and political headlines could trigger sharp moves. Cross-pair momentum : EURJPY at record highs, GBPJPY surging, confirming broad-based yen weakness. The bulls are in control as long as USDJPY stays above 151.15–150.50. Pullbacks to support offer opportunities to buy dips, with 154.80 as the next bullish target. Keep stop losses disciplined, and don’t ignore the chance for sharp reversals if intervention or a dramatic shift in sentiment emerges. For more actionable FX insight, follow ThinkMarkets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
No more rate hikes from the BoJ?The USDJPY started the week with a massive gap of 191 pips. This was following news that Sanae Takaichi was on the verge of being the first female Prime Minister of Japan. As a keen advocate of Abenomics (the nickname for the economic policies set out for Japan in 2012 when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came into power for a second time), it is believed that Takaichi could double down on Abenomics of the past. A weaker yen, more government spending, and more inflation are the likely outcomes. And the immediate reaction of a gap to the upside on the USDJPY shows that the market agrees too. Furthermore, Takaichi's advisors have already urged the BoJ to be careful with rate hikes. However, prices are still slightly below the immediate resistance area formed by the previous swing level of 150.75 and the long-term Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% and the price level of 151.67. A break of the resistance area could potentially result in significant upside to the USDJPY. Maybe even retesting the January 2025 high of 159. However, a continual move to the upside is unlikely to be achieve just based on Yen weakness. A recovery of strength in the DXY would be necessary to support the move higher.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Exness: Japanese Yen Hawkish Shift Intertwined with Fed Rate CutExness: Japanese Yen Hawkish Shift Intertwined with Fed Rate Cut Expectations: What Lies Ahead? The signals from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on September 18-19 mark a potential turning point. Although the decision was made to keep the policy interest rate at 0.5% with a 7-2 vote, the internal details revealed growing hawkish pressure. Policy board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura voted against maintaining the interest rate, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point hike to 0.75%. This is the first dissenting vote since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office, clearly indicating a growing call for tighter policy within the central bank. Even more surprisingly, the Bank of Japan simultaneously announced that it would begin preparations to sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs). Although the planned pace of sales is relatively modest, this is seen as a substantive step towards policy normalization, with its signaling significance far outweighing its actual market impact. The "Summary of Opinions" from the September meeting, just released today (September 30), provides decisive evidence of this hawkish shift. The document shows that there was a serious and in-depth debate within the policy board on the "possibility of a near-term rate hike." Several members believed that the conditions for another rate hike were maturing, with one opinion explicitly stating, "Given that it has been more than six months since the last rate hike, perhaps it is time to consider raising the policy interest rate again." Even Asahi Noguchi, a deliberation committee member usually considered dovish, stated in a speech on September 29 that the necessity of adjusting the policy interest rate is "greater than ever." This series of signals quickly reshaped market expectations. Currently, market pricing reflects that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on October 29-30 has surged to about 60%. In stark contrast to the Bank of Japan's increasingly firm stance, the Federal Reserve is on a clear path of easing, primarily driven by concerns about a cooling US labor market. Key inflation data released last week on September 26 further solidified this expectation. Data shows that the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (Chart 1) price index for August, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, remaining consistent with July and fully meeting market expectations. This "as expected" report is widely interpreted by the market as "non-threatening" inflation, suggesting it will not hinder the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and instead bolsters investor confidence in future rate reductions. The Tug-of-War Between Inflation and Growth The fierce debate within the Bank of Japan between hawks and doves stems from the contradictory signals sent by Japan's domestic economic data. On the one hand, persistently above-target inflation provides a reason for raising interest rates; on the other hand, recent signs of slowing growth call for the central bank to remain cautious. This tug-of-war between inflation and growth makes the Bank of Japan's decision-making path full of uncertainty. Inflation Outlook: The Hawks' Confidence Hawkish officials who support interest rate hikes primarily base their arguments on persistent inflationary pressures in Japan. The national core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Chart 2) for August, released on September 18th, rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although this is a slowdown from July's 3.1%, it marks the 29th consecutive month that this data has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. What is even more noteworthy is that the "Core-Core CPI", which excludes fresh food and energy and is regarded by the Bank of Japan as a measure of underlying inflation trends, remained stubbornly high at 3.3% in August. This persistent underlying price pressure is the core argument for hawkish members who believe the inflation target has been "largely achieved." In addition, the Tokyo core CPI for September (released on September 25), which is a leading indicator for national inflation, remained stable at 2.5% year-on-year, further indicating that inflationary pressures are not rapidly dissipating. Growth Outlook: Dovish Concerns However, just when the hawkish arguments seemed fully substantiated, the latest series of economic activity data released this week cast a shadow over the outlook, providing strong support for a dovish, cautious stance. Data released on September 29th and 30th showed that preliminary industrial output for August decreased by 1.2% month-on-month (Chart 3), significantly worse than the market expectation of -0.8% and also weaker than the previous figure of -0.4%. This indicates that production activities are contracting in manufacturing, a crucial pillar of the Japanese economy, possibly due to the negative impact of US tariff policies and a slowdown in global demand. At the same time, retail sales data for August, a key indicator of domestic demand, was also disappointing. This data unexpectedly fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant departure from market expectations of a 1.0% increase; it even saw a substantial 1.6% month-on-month decrease. This clearly indicates that Japanese household consumption power is being eroded, and domestic demand is beginning to show weakness, against a backdrop of inflation consistently higher than wage growth. In addition, the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Chart 4) for September fell to 48.4, marking the fastest contraction in six months and further confirming the downward pressure on the economy. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is at a critical crossroads. Recent price movements show a fierce struggle between bulls and bears around important technical levels, reflecting fundamental uncertainties. USD/JPY failed to reach the key 150.00 level, then fell back below 149.00 and the EMA21. The price is still fluctuating within the 148.00-149.00 range, indicating possible consolidation. If it stays below 149.00, the price may consolidate further within the 148.00-149.00 range. Conversely, if it returns above the EMA21 and 149.00, it may retest the key 150.00 level. Integrating the above fundamental and technical analysis, a core conclusion can be drawn: the previous one-sided short-yen trading environment has ended. The market is entering a new phase that is more balanced but potentially significantly more volatile. The movement of USD/JPY is no longer dominated by a single factor, but depends on the interplay between the hawkish potential of the Bank of Japan and the dovish reality of the Federal Reserve. The short-term direction of the exchange rate will be determined by which central bank's actions (or inactions) surprise the market more. The future path will be largely determined by two key economic data releases scheduled for this week: Japan Tankan Survey (October 1): Can this report give the Bank of Japan's hawks enough confidence to act in October? US Non-Farm Payrolls (October 3): Will this data confirm the weakening of the US labor market, thereby "paving the way" for the Federal Reserve's rate cut path? The outcome of these two events will likely determine whether USD/JPY breaks key support and tests lower levels, or whether it can hold its ground here and gather strength to challenge the strong resistance area of 150 again. In any case, what is certain is that the era of one-sided yen depreciation is over, and a new phase full of strategic reassessment and uncertainty has arrived. By: Eric Chia, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
by WiseLeoTrading
1
USDJPY: 150 INTERVENTION ZONE BATTLE! BoJ vs Bulls 🚀 USDJPY: 150 INTERVENTION ZONE BATTLE! BoJ vs Bulls 📊 Current Price: 149.521 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 149.20 - 149.60 📍 Stop Loss: 148.80 🛑 Target 1: 150.20 🎯 Target 2: 150.80 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 149.80 - 150.20 📍 Stop Loss: 150.50 🛑 Target 1: 148.50 🎯 Target 2: 147.80 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 68.7 ⚡ Overbought Territory Bollinger Bands: Upper Band Rejection 🔥 VWAP: 149.30 - Critical Support 💪 EMA 20: 148.90 ✅ Bullish Trend Intact Volume: Intervention Fears Rising 📊 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave 5 Extension Risk 🌊 Fibonacci Target: 150.50 Danger Zone 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bearish Bat Forming at 150.00 ✨ ABCD Completion Warning 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Intervention Zone: 150.00-150.50 🏆 Extended Target: 151.00 🌙 Gann Resistance: 150.25 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 148.00 ⚠️ Critical Break: 147.00 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Parabolic Extension 💪 Momentum: Intervention Risk 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Distribution Risk 📈 Ichimoku: Overbought Signals 🟡 🏛️ CENTRAL BANK DYNAMICS: BoJ Intervention: 150 Trigger Level 🚨 Verbal Warnings: Intensifying 📢 USD Strength: Fed Policy Support 💵 Rate Differential: Widening 📊 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 40 pips 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Conservative 1:1.5 ⚖️ Intervention Alert: Above 149.80 📏 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS: Fed Hawkishness vs BoJ Dovish 🏦 US Yields Supporting USD 📈 Japan CPI Remaining Low 📊 Tokyo Session High Volatility 🗾 🔥 INTERVENTION WATCH: BoJ Trigger: 150.00 Level 💥 Historical Pattern: Verbal → Action 📉 Risk/Reward: Deteriorating 📉 ⚠️ DANGER ZONE LEVELS: Intervention Risk: 149.80+ 🚨 Support: 149.00 | 148.50 | 148.00 🛡️ Resistance: 150.00 | 150.50 | 151.00 🚧 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: USDJPY at CRITICAL 150 BATTLE! 🚀 BoJ intervention risk MAXIMUM! ⚠️ Bulls vs Central Bank showdown! ⚔️ Trade Management: Reduce size near 150! 💰 Alert Level: 149.80 intervention warning! 🚨 --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: High intervention risk. Use tight stops. Educational analysis only. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow BoJ Intervention Alerts | 💬 Share Your 150 Strategy
Long
by sunya
Tokyo Core CPI remains unchanged, US PCE Index ticks higherThe Japanese yen has stabilized on Friday. In the North American session, US/JPY is trading at 149.61, down 0.11% on the day. The yen has taken a beating over the past two days, falling 1.5%. Tokyo Core CPI held steady in September at 2.5% y/y. This matched the downwardly revised August reading and was lower than the market estimate of 2.8%. Tokyo Core CPI excluding food and energy dropped to 2.5%, down sharply from 3.0% in August. Food inflation remains high but eased to 6.9% in September from 7.4% in August. The Bank of Japan will include this data in the mix when it meets next on October 29-30. Aside from inflation, BoJ policymakers will be looking at the impact of US tariffs on the economy. The US PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, ticked higher in August. Annualized, PCE rose to 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July and in line with the consensus. Monthly, PCE gained 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July and matching the consensus. With inflation largely under control, the Federal Reserve's priority has shifted to the US labor market. The last two nonfarm payrolls reports showed marginal job growth and missed expectations, raising concerns that the labor market is quickly losing steam. If next week's nonfarm payroll report is soft, it could cement an October rate cut. USDJPY is testing support at 149.75. Next, there is support at 149.62 There is resistance at 149.89 and 150.02
by OANDA
3
USDJPY Ultimate Price Action Analysis:📊 USDJPY Forecast 🔮💹 (147.961) Closing 20th Sept 2025 | 12:50 AM UTC+4 🕵️‍♂️ Market Snapshot USDJPY closed at 147.961, showing mixed signals as bulls attempt to hold ground near critical levels while sellers eye a potential reversal. ⚖️ 🏦 Technical Framework 🔹 Chart Patterns 📈 Possible Elliott Wave 5th leg exhaustion near 148.5–149.2. 🌀 Harmonic PRZ forming around 149.0. 🏯 Ichimoku Cloud shows resistance overhead, baseline support at 147.3. ⚠️ Watch for bull trap if price fails 148.2. 🔹 Indicators RSI 📊: 62 → mild overbought. BB 🔔: Price hugging upper band = volatility spike. MA Cross 🔀: Golden cross intact, but momentum flattening. VWAP ⚡: Anchored VWAP = 147.6 → strong pivot. 🕐 Intraday Outlook Buy Zone 💵: 147.40 – 147.60 (support + VWAP confluence). Sell Zone 💸: 148.50 – 148.80 (resistance + harmonic). Take Profit 🎯: Longs → 148.20 / 148.50 Shorts → 147.10 / 146.80 Stop Loss 🛑: Longs < 147.20 Shorts > 149.00 ⏳ Swing Trading Outlook Bullish Scenario 🐂: Break & close above 149.20 → next target 150.50 – 151.20. Bearish Scenario 🐻: Close below 146.80 → correction toward 145.40 – 144.70. 📌 Key Levels Resistance: 148.20 / 148.80 / 149.20 Support: 147.40 / 146.80 / 145.40 🎯 Strategy Summary ✅ Intraday: Buy dips near support, sell rallies near resistance. ✅ Swing: Watch 149.20 breakout or 146.80 breakdown for larger moves. ⚡ Volatility expected → trade with strict risk control. 🌍 Market Context Fed & BoJ policy divergence remains key. Geopolitical jitters in Asia could trigger safe-haven flows → boosting JPY demand. 🔥 Trade Smart | Manage Risk | Respect Levels 🔥 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
BoJ holds rates, yen gives up gainsThe Japanese yen climbed 0.50% earlier against the US dollar but was unable to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.92, down 0.04% on the day. The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.50% at today's meeting. The non-move was widely expected by the markets. What was a surprise was the split vote, as two of the nine members voted in favor of a rate hike, indicating some support for a more hawkish monetary policy. Governor Ueda has been cautious and has the markets guessing as to when the BoJ will raise rates. The markets have priced in a 59% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year, up from 50% a week ago, according to LSEG. The policy statement noted that the domestic economy had "recovered moderately" but was still showing signs of weakness. Members also expressed concern that exports will be hurt by US tariffs, with Japan facing a 15% tarriff on most of its exports to the US. On the inflation front, the statement said that underlying inflation is weak but is expected to increase gradually and reach the 2% inflation target. After years of deflation, prices are moving higher, which has led to expectations that a rate hike is just a question of timing. Consumer inflation is running between 2.5-3%, above the BoJ's 2% target. The central bank has stressed that it wants to see sustainable underyling inflation at around 2% before the next rate hike. The BoJ is also concerned about the political turmoil in Japan. Prime Minister Ishiba recently resigned and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is holding an election to choose a new leader. USDJPY tested support at 147.77 and 147.51 earlier There is resistance at 148.12 and 148.38
by OANDA
USDJPY Deat Cat Bounce at play after Jackson Hole remarks?In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant labour, which is driving wage growth and sustaining inflationary pressures. Ueda’s Hawkish Stance: Ueda maintained a hawkish tone, noting that wage hikes in larger Japanese companies are now spreading to smaller firms, strengthening expectations for continued inflation. This commentary increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike, giving the yen additional support. Market Reaction: Prior to the Symposium, traders were positioned for a potential rate cut by year-end. However, after Ueda’s remarks, futures market pricing suggests the odds of an October rate cut are now evenly split at 50-50. Technicals: Open triangle completion may trigger further downside after the post-JHS drop. Current rally to the upside could be a relief rally, part of a potential Dead Cat Bounce (DCB). This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
GU, UJ & Gold: Calm Before the Storm | Fed, BoJ, BoE AheadThe markets have been stuck in ranges for weeks, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold all moving sideways. In this video, I share a clear perspective on why that’s happening and what could finally trigger a breakout. Here’s what you’ll gain: ✅A simple breakdown of the range structures on GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold. ✅The key economic events next week that could shake the market (Fed, BoJ, BoE, UK CPI & labour data). ✅Likely breakout scenarios and the triggers to watch. ✅How to avoid getting trapped while the price is still consolidating. This is the “calm before the storm” phase, and knowing how to position yourself ahead of it could make all the difference. 👉 Drop a comment with the pair you’re watching most closely. Trade smart, trade consciously. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice, always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
by darcsherry
Japan's GDP sparkles, yen pushes higherThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day. The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%. This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%. The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy. The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October. US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62 There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35
by OANDA
USDJPY Primed for Push Higher! Ascending Channel & Bullish🔮 USDJPY Technical Forecast & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Current Spot Price: 147.385 | CFD | Date: Sept 6, 2025 🟢 Overall Bias: BULLISH | The pair is trading within a clear bullish structure on higher timeframes. All pullbacks are currently being bought, indicating strong underlying demand. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Convergence: 🚩 Bullish Continuation Patterns: The price action from the August low exhibits characteristics of a Bull Flag or an Ascending Channel. A clean break above the 148.00 resistance would confirm this pattern and open a path significantly higher. 📐 Gann Theory & Square of 9: The current price is consolidating near a key Gann angle. A hold above 147.00 is crucial for the bulls to maintain control and propel price towards the next Gann objective near 148.80-149.20. 🌊 E lliott Wave Theory: The rally from the late August low is impulsive in nature, suggesting this is part of a larger Wave 3 or Wave C push higher. Any dip is likely a Wave 4 correction before a final Wave 5 thrust. ☁️ Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: A strongly bullish configuration. The price is well above the Kumo (Cloud), the Tenkan-sen (9) is above the Kijun-sen (26), and the Cloud itself is bullish. This is a classic trend-following signal. 2. Key Indicator Signals: 📶 RSI (14): On the 4H chart, the RSI is holding firmly in bullish territory (above 50) and has not reached overbought (>70) levels, suggesting there is more room for the trend to run. 🟢 📏 Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band, a sign of strong momentum. Any pullback would likely find support at the middle band (20 SMA ~146.80), which is rising. ⚖️ VWAP & Anchored VWAP: The price is trading well above the daily and weekly VWAP, confirming that the trend is strong and the average participant is long and in profit. 📈 Moving Averages: The key EMA's (50, 100, 200) are all bullishly aligned and acting as dynamic support. The 50 EMA on the 4H chart (~146.90) is a key level for bulls to defend. 3. Critical Support & Resistance: 🎯 Immediate Resistance: 148.00 (Psychological, Recent High) 🎯 Key Resistance: 149.20 - 149.50 (Gann Target, Previous Swing High) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 147.00 - 146.90 (Previous Resistance, 50 EMA) 🛡️ Strong Support: 146.20 - 146.00 (Kijun-sen, Key Fibonacci Level) 🛡️ Major Support: 145.00 (Top of Ichimoku Cloud) ⚡ Trading Strategies & Setups A. Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts): Strategy: Look for long opportunities on dips towards support. Use bullish candlestick patterns (Hammer, Bullish Engulfing) near the 147.00 or 146.90 levels for high-probability entries. Long Entry (Ideal): ~147.10 - 146.95 | Stop Loss: 146.60 | Take Profit 1: 147.80 | Take Profit 2: 148.50 Breakout Long: On a decisive break and hold above 148.10, with a target of 148.80. B. Swing Trading (4H - D Charts): Strategy: The bullish structure and Ichimoku alignment favor continued upside. Any dip into support is a potential buying opportunity for a larger move. Swing Long Entry: On a pullback to 146.90-146.70 (Buy the Dip) OR a daily close above 148.20 (Breakout Buy). Stop Loss: Below 146.20 | Target 1: 149.20 | Target 2: 150.00+ Bearish Invalidation: A decisive break and close below 145.80 (into the cloud) would invalidate the immediate bullish bias and signal a deeper correction. 🌍 Market Context & Risk Factors Interest Rate Divergence: This is the core driver. The pair is highly sensitive to the US Dollar (USD) strength and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy. Hawkish Fed rhetoric vs. dovish BoJ stance is profoundly bullish for USDJPY. 👁️ Watch for any unexpected BoJ intervention hints. Risk Sentiment: Traditionally a "risk-off" proxy, but currently driven more by yield differentials. Monitor global equity markets and geopolitical events for sudden flight-to-safety flows into the JPY. ✅ Key Takeaways: The Trend is Your Friend! 🐂 All higher-timeframe signals point to a robust bullish trend. Ichimoku is Bullish. The price above a bullish cloud is a strong trend-confirmation signal. Buy the Dips. The strategy favors entering on short-term weakness toward support rather than chasing the breakout. Mind the BoJ. The largest risk is verbal or physical intervention from the Bank of Japan, which can cause violent, sharp reversals. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - Comprehensive Multi-Dimensional Analysis Asset Class: USD/JPY (US Dollar vs Japanese Yen) Current Price: 147.036 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Critical resistance testing phase with intervention risk monitoring Executive Summary The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 147.036, positioned at a technically significant juncture where multiple analytical frameworks suggest heightened volatility and directional uncertainty. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 146.9530 on August 29, 2025, up 0.22% from the previous session, while the USDJPY showed a −0.89% fall over the past week, the month change is a −1.63% fall, and over the last year it has increased by 1.42%. Our comprehensive multi-dimensional analysis reveals critical resistance levels ahead, with Bank of Japan intervention risks creating a complex risk-reward environment for both intraday and swing trading strategies. Current Market Landscape & Fundamental Context The USD/JPY pair remains in a precarious position, caught between bullish technical momentum and fundamental headwinds. From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. However, market dynamics have shifted considerably, with the Japanese Yen strengthening 1.52% over the past month, but down by 0.54% over the last 12 months. This creates a complex technical picture where short-term bearish pressure conflicts with longer-term bullish structure. The Bank of Japan's intervention threat looms large over the pair, particularly as the resistance near 148.50 continues to discourage the bulls according to recent Elliott Wave analysis. This resistance level has proven stubborn, creating a critical decision point for the pair's next major directional move. Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count Structure Long-term Perspective (Monthly/Weekly): Based on recent analysis, the daily chart analysis for USDJPY indicates the beginning of a bearish trend, triggered by the initiation of Navy Blue Wave 1. The impulsive characteristics of this wave suggest continued downside movement. Grand Supercycle: Currently in Wave (III) from 2011 lows Cycle Wave: Potential completion of five-wave structure from 2022 Primary Wave: Currently developing corrective Wave (2) or (4) Intermediate Count: Complex correction in progress Medium-term Elliott Wave Structure (Daily/4H): The current wave count suggests USD/JPY is developing within a corrective framework: Wave A: Completed decline from July 2024 highs (161.95) to August lows (141.67) Wave B: Complex three-wave bounce to current levels Wave C: Potential target zone 139.58-136.00 (year-to-date lows) Alternative Count: Impulse Wave 1: Down from 161.95 to 141.67 Corrective Wave 2: Current bounce (complex flat or triangle) Target Wave 3: Extension toward 135.00-130.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets & Critical Levels Immediate Resistance (Wave B Completion): Primary Resistance: 148.50-149.00 (current battle zone) Secondary Resistance: 151.20-151.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Major Resistance: 154.50-155.50 (78.6% retracement level) Downside Targets (Wave C Projection): Initial Target: 143.50-144.50 (1:1 wave equality) Primary Target: 140.32-139.58 (previous reaction lows) Extended Target: 136.00-135.00 (1.618 extension) Ultimate Target: 131.00-128.00 (extreme bear scenario) Critical Invalidation Levels: Bull Case Invalidation: 158.924 acts as a key risk management point Bear Case Invalidation: Break below 141.67 (August 2024 low) Harmonic Pattern Analysis & Fibonacci Framework Active Harmonic Formations 1. Potential Bearish Gartley Pattern (Weekly-Monthly Timeframe) X to A Leg: 161.95 to 141.67 (2,028 pips decline) A to B Retracement: Current level at 147.03 (26.4% retracement) Target B Point: 148.50-150.00 (38.2%-50% optimal zone) Projected C Point: 144.00-145.50 (78.6%-88.6% of AB) Completion Zone (D): 155.50-157.80 (78.6%-88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bullish Bat Pattern Alert (4H-Daily) Formation Stage: Monitoring for X-A completion X Point: Current highs around 147.50 Potential A Point: Break below 144.50 would activate pattern Target Completion: 142.50-141.80 zone (88.6% XA retracement) Risk Assessment: High probability if 144.50 breaks 3. Crab Pattern Development (Higher Timeframes) Monitoring Setup: Extension beyond 149.50 could trigger Crab formation Completion Zone: 151.20-154.80 (161.8%-224% XA extension) Strategic Implication: Major reversal zone for long-term shorts Fibonacci Confluence Analysis Critical Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% Retracement: 146.15 (minor support from July-August range) 38.2% Retracement: 149.43 (major resistance confluence) 50% Retracement: 151.81 (psychological and technical resistance) 61.8% Golden Ratio: 154.19 (ultimate resistance barrier) 78.6% Level: 157.21 (major reversal zone) Extension Projections: 127.2% Extension: 144.20 (From recent correction) 161.8% Extension: 141.15 (Major downside target) 200% Extension: 137.58 (Extended bear target) 261.8% Extension: 132.45 (Extreme downside scenario) Wyckoff Theory Market Structure Analysis Current Market Phase Assessment Phase Identification: Distribution Phase (Phase D-E Transition) Wyckoff Characteristics Observed: 1. Accumulation Completed: 2022-2023 range (125.00-140.00) 2. Markup Phase: 2023-2024 rally to 161.95 highs 3. Distribution Phase: Current 2024-2025 range (141.67-161.95) 4. Preliminary Supply (PSY): July 2024 highs at 161.95 5. Buying Climax (BC): Failed retest of 161.95 levels 6. Automatic Reaction (AR): August decline to 141.67 7. Secondary Test (ST): Current bounce to 147.00+ levels 8. Sign of Weakness (SOW): Failure to reclaim 150.00+ levels Current Phase Analysis: Phase D: Testing supply levels (147.00-149.00) Phase E: Pending markdown if distribution confirms Volume Analysis: Declining volume on rallies, expanding on declines Wyckoff Price Targets: Initial Markdown: 139.58-140.32 (previous support cluster) Primary Target: 135.00-136.00 (measured move from distribution) Ultimate Target: 128.00-131.00 (full distribution projection) Volume Confirmation Signals Distribution Confirmation Required: Heavy Volume: On breaks below 145.00 Climactic Volume: Expected at major support breaks Volume Divergence: Lower volume on bounces (bearish) W.D. Gann Theory & Sacred Geometry Analysis Gann Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 147.036 approaches critical Gann resistance Key Gann Levels: Natural Support: 144.00 (perfect square root level) Current Resistance: 148.00-149.00 (major Gann square cluster) Critical Resistance: 152.00 (next significant square level) Ultimate Resistance: 156.25 (major Gann confluence) Extreme Target: 160.00-161.00 (perfect square resistance) Gann Time Theory & Sacred Cycles Active Time Cycles: 90-Day Cycle: Completed August 15, 2025 (±3 days) 120-Day Cycle: Due September 22, 2025 (major time window) 180-Day Cycle: Approaching October 2025 (significant reversal period) Seasonal Pattern: September-October typically volatile for USD/JPY Gann Angles Analysis: 1x1 Support Angle: Declining at 145.50 (from July highs) 2x1 Support: 143.80 (major support angle) 1x2 Resistance: 149.20 (dynamic resistance line) 4x1 Resistance: 152.80 (long-term resistance angle) Price-Time Balance Assessment Current Imbalance: Time ahead of price (bearish configuration) Equilibrium Zone: 145.50-147.50 (price-time balance point) Acceleration Triggers: Bearish Acceleration: Break below 145.50 with time alignment Bullish Reversal: Time cycle completion with price support Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud Analysis Current Ichimoku Structure Tenkan-sen (9): 146.85 (immediate dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26): 148.15 (medium-term resistance line) Senkou Span A: 147.50 (near-term cloud boundary) Senkou Span B: 151.20 (strong cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Trading below price 26 periods ago (bearish signal) Ichimoku Signals & Market Structure Current Status: Price below cloud (bearish environment) Key Ichimoku Signals: 1. TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (bearish momentum confirmed) 2. Cloud Color: Red cloud ahead (bearish bias continues) 3. Price vs Cloud: Below cloud (trend confirmation bearish) 4. Chikou Span: Below historical prices (momentum confirmation bearish) 5. Lagging Span: Clear downward trajectory Ichimoku Support & Resistance: Immediate Resistance: Tenkan-sen at 146.85 Primary Resistance: Kijun-sen at 148.15 Cloud Resistance: 147.50-151.20 (thick cloud barrier) Major Resistance: 152.50+ (cloud top projection) Support Levels: Immediate Support: 145.50-146.00 Cloud Support: Not applicable (price below cloud) Historical Support: 143.50-144.50 (previous reaction levels) Technical Indicators Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI) Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current RSI Status: Daily RSI: 44.2 (Neutral-bearish territory) 4H RSI: 38.5 (Approaching oversold conditions) 1H RSI: 52.1 (Neutral zone with bearish bias) Weekly RSI: 35.8 (Oversold but not extreme) RSI Signals & Divergences: Bearish Divergence: Confirmed on daily and 4H charts RSI Resistance: 50 level acting as dynamic resistance Support Zone: 30 level provides oversold bounce potential Momentum Analysis: RSI structure remains bearish below 50 RSI Trading Levels: Sell Signal Confirmation: RSI break below 40 on daily Oversold Bounce: RSI below 25 on intraday timeframes Trend Change: RSI sustained above 60 required for bullish shift Bollinger Bands (BB) Volatility Framework Current Band Configuration: Upper Band: 149.45 (major resistance) Middle Band (SMA 20): 147.25 (dynamic pivot) Lower Band: 145.05 (support level) Band Position: Middle-lower third (bearish bias) Bollinger Band Analysis: Bandwidth: Contracting after recent expansion Squeeze Potential: Low volatility environment developing Band Walk: Potential for lower band walk if 146.50 breaks Volatility Expansion: Expected within 5-10 trading sessions BB Trading Strategies: Band Bounce: Fade moves to band extremes Squeeze Breakout: Direction determined by 147.25 middle band Band Walk: Sustained moves outside bands indicate trend strength Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis Multi-Session VWAP Framework: Daily VWAP: 146.95 (critical pivot level) Weekly VWAP: 148.30 (resistance anchor) Monthly VWAP: 151.85 (major resistance zone) Quarterly VWAP: 154.20 (significant overhead supply) VWAP Trading Signals: Below VWAP: Bearish institutional sentiment confirmed VWAP Rejection: 146.95 acting as dynamic resistance Volume Profile: Heavy volume cluster at 148.00-149.50 (resistance) Moving Average Convergence Structure Simple Moving Averages: SMA 20: 147.25 (immediate resistance) SMA 50: 149.80 (intermediate resistance) SMA 100: 152.40 (long-term resistance) SMA 200: 155.60 (major trend indicator) Exponential Moving Averages: EMA 12: 146.95 (short-term resistance) EMA 26: 148.45 (MACD baseline) EMA 50: 150.20 (medium-term resistance) EMA 100: 153.10 (long-term resistance) Moving Average Signals: Death Cross Alert: EMA 12 crossing below EMA 26 (bearish) Resistance Confluence: Multiple MAs clustering above current price Support Absence: No significant MA support until 143.50 area Advanced Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Candlestick Formations Weekly Chart Patterns: 1. Shooting Star (Week of August 19) - Bearish reversal confirmed 2. Doji Sequence (Previous weeks) - Indecision resolved to downside 3. Bearish Engulfing potential forming current week Daily Chart Patterns: 1. Three Black Crows (August 5-7) - Strong bearish momentum 2. Bear Flag Pattern (August 15-25) - Consolidation before continuation 3. Evening Star formation completed (August 26-28) 4. Dark Cloud Cover pattern active 4-Hour Chart Signals: 1. Bear Flag Breakdown - Target 144.50 2. Descending Triangle - Apex break targeting 145.00 3. Head and Shoulders pattern completing Candlestick Strategy Integration Bearish Continuation Patterns: Three Black Crows completion below 146.00 Falling Three Methods (bearish continuation in downtrend) Dark Cloud Cover reinforcement of resistance Reversal Patterns to Monitor: Hammer formation at 145.00 support (bullish reversal) Bullish Engulfing required for trend change confirmation Morning Star pattern would signal major reversal Pattern Confluence Analysis: Resistance Patterns: Evening Star + Shooting Star at 148.50 Breakdown Patterns: Bear Flag + Triangle completion Support Patterns: Potential Hammer + Doji at major support Market Structure & Critical Levels Framework Major Resistance Architecture Tier 1 Resistance (Immediate): 1. 147.25-147.50: Daily SMA 20 + VWAP confluence 2. 148.15-148.50: Kijun-sen + recent highs 3. 149.00-149.50: Bollinger upper band + psychological level 4. 150.00-150.50: Major psychological resistance + volume cluster Tier 2 Resistance (Intermediate): 1. 151.20-151.80: Ichimoku cloud + Fibonacci 50% retracement 2. 152.50-153.00: SMA 100 + Gann angle convergence 3. 154.20-154.80: Fibonacci 61.8% + quarterly VWAP 4. 156.00-157.00: Major harmonic completion zone Tier 3 Resistance (Major): 1. 158.50-159.00: Elliott Wave invalidation level 2. 160.00-161.00: Psychological + previous highs 3. 161.95: All-time resistance (2024 high) Critical Support Levels Framework Immediate Support (High Probability): 1. 146.50-146.80: Minor support cluster 2. 145.50-146.00: Gann 1x1 angle + previous reaction 3. 144.50-145.00: Harmonic support + round number 4. 143.50-144.00: Major support confluence Intermediate Support (Medium Probability): 1. 142.00-142.50: Previous swing low area 2. 141.67: August 2024 low (critical level) 3. 140.32: September 2024 low + Elliott target 4. 139.58: Year-to-date low Major Support (Lower Probability): 1. 136.00-137.00: Harmonic completion + Wyckoff target 2. 135.00: Round number + Elliott extension 3. 131.00-132.00: Major Fibonacci extension 4. 128.00-130.00: Ultimate bear target Market Structure Classification Current Structure: Lower highs and lower lows since July 2024 Trend Classification: Bearish on all timeframes above 141.67 Structure Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 Trend Acceleration: Break below 145.00 with volume Comprehensive Trading Strategies Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) # Strategy 1: Resistance Rejection Play (Success Rate: 70%) Setup Requirements: - Price approaching 147.25-148.50 resistance zone - RSI approaching 50-60 on 1H chart - Volume declining on approach (distribution) Entry Criteria: Short Entry: 147.80-148.20 (scale in at resistance) Stop Loss: 149.00 (above major resistance) Target 1: 146.50 (immediate support) Target 2: 145.50 (Gann support) Target 3: 144.50 (major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 # Strategy 2: Support Breakdown Trading (Success Rate: 65%) Bearish Breakdown: Entry: Break below 146.00 with volume confirmation Stop Loss: 146.80 (failed breakdown) Target 1: 145.00 (immediate support) Target 2: 144.00 (harmonic target) Target 3: 142.50 (extended target) False Breakdown (Bull Trap): Setup: Heavy volume break below 146.00 with immediate recovery Entry: Long above 146.50 with confirmation Target: 148.00-149.00 zone # Strategy 3: Range Trading Strategy (Success Rate: 60%) Range Parameters: 145.50-148.50 (current consolidation) Sell Zone: 147.80-148.50 (range highs) Buy Zone: 145.50-146.20 (range lows) Stop Loss: Outside range boundaries Profit Target: Opposite range boundary Range Break: Follow breakout direction with trend strategy Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) # Primary Swing Setup: Elliott Wave C Completion Market Context: Currently in corrective Wave B, preparing for Wave C down Short Position Framework: Entry Zone: 147.50-149.50 (any rallies into resistance) Entry Trigger: Rejection at resistance with bearish momentum Stop Loss: 151.00 (above major resistance cluster) Target 1: 143.50-144.50 (initial support) Target 2: 140.32-141.67 (previous lows) Ultimate Target: 136.00-139.58 (Elliott Wave C target) Position Size: 2.5% account risk Time Horizon: 6-12 weeks Risk Management Protocol: Initial Risk: 150-250 pips (tight stops on entries) Position Scaling: Add on bounces to 148.00-149.00 Profit Taking: 30% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2, 20% runner Trailing Stops: Implement after 1:1.5 risk-reward achieved # Alternative Swing Setup: Bull Trap Reversal If Bearish Scenario Fails: Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 New Strategy: Long above 150.50 with confirmation Targets: 154.20, 157.80, 161.95 Stop Loss: Below 148.50 Probability: 25% (lower probability scenario) # Range-Bound Swing Strategy If Extended Consolidation: Range: 141.67-154.20 (broad consolidation range) Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 (range highs) Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 (range lows) Strategy: Fade extremes with tight risk management Duration: 8-16 weeks potential Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday September 2: Labor Day Consideration Expected Scenario: Reduced liquidity due to US holiday Strategy: Conservative positioning, avoid major trades Key Focus: Monitor for any BoJ intervention signals Technical Setup: Range trading 146.50-148.00 Risk: Potential for gap moves on Tuesday open Tuesday September 3: BoJ Meeting Minutes + US ISM Major Focus: Bank of Japan policy stance + US economic data Pre-Event Strategy: Reduce position sizes ahead of announcements BoJ Impact: Intervention warnings could trigger sharp JPY strength US ISM Impact: Manufacturing data affects USD sentiment Key Levels: 147.25 (pivot), 148.50 (resistance), 146.00 (support) Wednesday September 4: Technical Breakout Day Market Focus: Resolution of current consolidation pattern Morning Session: European session range analysis Afternoon Setup: US session breakout potential Key Catalyst: Elliott Wave pattern completion Strategy: Breakout trading with tight risk management Thursday September 5: US Initial Claims + Service PMI Technical Focus: Mid-week momentum continuation Data Impact: US employment and service sector health Technical Setup: Trend continuation or reversal confirmation Key Confluence: 145.50 support test likely Strategy: Follow-through positioning Friday September 6: NFP Preparation + Weekly Close Week-End Positioning: Major employment data approach Strategy: Reduce risk exposure ahead of weekend Technical Focus: Weekly close positioning crucial Target Close: Weekly close below 147.00 (bearish) or above 148.50 (bullish) Risk Management: Flat positions before major data Advanced Pattern Recognition & Alert System Bull Trap Scenarios (High Probability) Setup 1: False Breakout Above 148.50 Characteristics: Low volume breakout, immediate reversal below 148.00 Response: Aggressive short positioning Target: 145.50-144.50 (measured move) Stop Loss: Above 149.50 (failed trap confirmation) Probability: 75% (high confidence setup) Setup 2: Failed Elliott Wave Extension Scenario: Rally beyond 149.50 but failure at 151.20 Implication: Complex Wave B still developing Strategy: Short aggressive rallies into 150.00-151.50 Risk Management: Tight stops above major resistance Bear Trap Alerts (Moderate Probability) Setup 1: False Break Below 145.50 Characteristics: Heavy volume break with quick recovery above 146.50 Response: Long positioning on retest of breakdown level Target: 148.50-149.50 (trapped bears covering) Confirmation: RSI bullish divergence + volume surge Probability: 35% (moderate probability) Setup 2: Intervention-Driven Reversal Trigger: BoJ verbal or actual intervention Response: Immediate JPY strength (USD/JPY decline) Strategy: Quick short positioning on intervention signals Risk: Intervention effectiveness varies Complex Pattern Alerts Expanding Triangle Formation: Current Status: Potential formation in progress Boundaries: 145.00-149.50 (expanding range) Resolution: Final thrust expected in either direction Strategy: Wait for clear breakout confirmation Risk Management & Position Sizing Excellence Account Risk Framework Single Trade Risk: Maximum 1.5% for intraday, 2.5% for swing Currency Exposure: Total JPY exposure not exceeding 6% of account Correlation Analysis: Monitor AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY correlations Event Risk: Reduce positions 50% ahead of BoJ meetings Advanced Stop Loss Methodology Technical Stops: Support/Resistance: 20-30 pips beyond key levels (volatile pair) Moving Average: Above/below significant MA clusters Volatility-Based: 2.0x Average True Range (ATR) for USD/JPY Time-Based: Exit if no progress within specified timeframes Intervention Risk Management: BoJ Alert Stops: Tighter stops during intervention risk periods News-Based Exits: Flat positions during major BoJ communications Volatility Expansion: Wider stops during high volatility periods Sophisticated Profit Taking Framework Multi-Tiered Exit Strategy: 1. 20% at 0.8:1 Risk-Reward (early profit protection) 2. 40% at 1.5:1 Risk-Reward (secure majority profit) 3. 30% at 2.5:1 Risk-Reward (extended target) 4. 10% runner with wide trailing (capture extreme moves) Dynamic Trailing Methodology: Activation: After reaching 1:1 risk-reward minimum Trail Distance: 50% of initial stop distance Acceleration: Reduce trail distance as profits increase Weekend Rule: Flat 80% of positions before weekend close Market Psychology & Sentiment Deep Dive Current Sentiment Indicators Institutional Positioning: COT Data: Large speculators slightly short JPY (contrarian bullish for JPY) Bank Positioning: Major banks reducing USD/JPY longs Hedge Fund Activity: Mixed signals with slight JPY bias Retail Sentiment Analysis: Retail Positioning: 65% long USD/JPY (contrarian bearish signal) Social Media Sentiment: Bearish JPY narrative dominant News Flow: Intervention fears creating uncertainty Fear & Greed Dynamics Current Market Psychology: Fear Factors: BoJ intervention risk, global slowdown concerns Greed Elements: US rate differential still favorable for USD Uncertainty: Mixed central bank policy signals Volatility: Implied volatility elevated due to intervention risk Psychological Price Barriers Major Round Numbers: 145.00: Critical psychological support 150.00: Major psychological resistance (intervention watch level) 155.00: Significant psychological barrier 160.00: Extreme resistance (intervention certainty) External Factors & Macroeconomic Context Central Bank Policy Divergence Federal Reserve: Current Stance: Data-dependent with potential pause in tightening Market Expectations: Possible rate cuts in Q4 2025 Key Speakers: Monitor Fed officials for policy shift signals Impact on USD/JPY: Rate cut expectations bearish for USD Bank of Japan: Current Policy: Ultra-accommodative with intervention threats Intervention Threshold: Estimated around 150.00-152.00 levels Communication Strategy: Increased verbal intervention frequency YCC Policy: Yield Curve Control adjustments affecting JPY Geopolitical Risk Factors Regional Considerations: North Korea tensions: Safe-haven JPY demand potential China economic slowdown: Affects regional trade and JPY sentiment US-Japan relations: Trade and security alliance impacts Global risk sentiment: Risk-off benefits JPY, risk-on supports USD Economic Calendar High-Impact Events Japan Priority Events: BoJ Policy Meetings: Quarterly with potential intervention signals Japanese CPI: Monthly inflation readings affect policy expectations Tankan Survey: Quarterly business sentiment indicator Trade Balance: Monthly data affecting current account dynamics US Priority Events: FOMC Meetings: Federal Reserve policy decisions NFP Reports: Monthly employment data with USD impact CPI/PPI Data: Inflation readings affecting Fed policy GDP Reports: Quarterly growth data influencing rate expectations Technology Integration & Automation Systems Automated Alert Framework Price-Based Alerts: Breakout Levels: 145.00, 148.50, 150.00, 152.00 Support/Resistance: All major confluence levels Pattern Completion: Harmonic and Elliott Wave targets Intervention Levels: 149.50, 152.00 (BoJ watch levels) Indicator-Based Alerts: RSI: Extreme readings (<25, >75) for reversal potential Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze completion and expansion signals MACD: Signal line crosses and histogram divergences Volume: Unusual volume spikes (3x average due to intervention risk) Volatility: ATR expansion beyond 150% of 20-day average News-Based Alert System BoJ Communication Monitoring: Press Releases: Real-time BoJ statement analysis Official Speeches: Governor Ueda and board member communications Market Intervention: Actual or verbal intervention signals Policy Changes: YCC adjustments or policy stance modifications US Economic Data Integration: High-Impact Releases: NFP, CPI, FOMC statements Fed Communications: FOMC minutes and Fed speaker events Economic Surprises: Significant data deviations from consensus Rate Expectations: Fed funds futures probability shifts Trading Platform Integration Excellence TradingView Professional Setup: Multi-timeframe Dashboard: 5M, 15M, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Custom Indicator Stack: Harmonic scanner, Elliott Wave tools, Ichimoku Alert Management: Price, indicator, and pattern-based notifications Strategy Backtesting: Historical performance validation across timeframes MetaTrader 5 Advanced Integration: Expert Advisor Development: Automated entry/exit based on confluences Risk Management Automation: Dynamic position sizing and stop adjustments News Feed Integration: Economic calendar with automatic impact assessment Performance Analytics: Detailed trade statistics and drawdown analysis Professional Trading Tools: Bloomberg Terminal: Real-time news flow and institutional positioning Reuters Integration: Central bank communication monitoring TradingCentral: Additional harmonic pattern confirmation Commitment of Traders: Weekly positioning analysis integration Advanced Strategy Combinations & Confluence Trading Tier 1 Multi-Confluence Signals (Highest Probability: 80-85%) Bearish Confluence Setup: - Elliott Wave C completion + Harmonic Gartley target + RSI divergence + Ichimoku bearish signals + Volume confirmation + BoJ intervention risk Entry Zone: 148.00-149.50 Target Zone: 143.50-145.50 Risk-Reward: 1:3.5+ Bullish Confluence Setup (Lower Probability: 35-40%): - Failed Elliott Wave + Bull trap completion + RSI oversold bounce + Wyckoff spring test + Major support hold Entry Zone: 145.00-146.50 (if support holds) Target Zone: 150.00-152.00 Risk-Reward: 1:2.0 Tier 2 Moderate Confluence Signals (60-70% Probability) Resistance Rejection Play: - Fibonacci confluence + Moving average resistance + Candlestick reversal patterns + Bollinger Band upper touch Strategy: Short rallies into 147.25-148.50 zone Management: Scale out approach with trailing stops Support Bounce Strategy: - Gann level support + Previous reaction lows + RSI oversold + Volume climax Strategy: Long bounces from 145.50-146.00 zone Target: 147.50-148.50 resistance zone Tier 3 Single-Method Signals (45-55% Probability) Pattern-Only Trades: - Pure candlestick pattern plays without additional confluence Risk Management: Tighter stops, smaller position sizes Profit Targets: Conservative, quick profit-taking approach Scenario Planning & Strategic Contingencies Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown Acceleration (55% Probability) Trigger Events: - Break below 145.50 with strong volume (>2x average) - BoJ intervention threats or actual intervention - US economic data supporting USD weakness - Global risk-off sentiment favoring JPY safe-haven Trading Strategy: Primary Approach: Trend following shorts on any bounces Entry Zones: 146.50-147.50 (on relief rallies) Target Sequence: 144.50 → 142.50 → 140.32 → 139.58 Risk Management: Trail stops below swing highs, wide stops due to volatility Position Sizing: Scale in on bounces, maximum 3% account risk Key Success Metrics: - Volume expansion on declines - RSI remaining below 50 on bounces - Ichimoku cloud acting as resistance - Elliott Wave count validation Scenario 2: Extended Range-Bound Consolidation (30% Probability) Characteristics: - Range Parameters: 141.67 - 154.20 (broad consolidation) - Duration: 8-16 weeks - Volume: Declining overall with spikes at range extremes - Central Bank Policy: Status quo maintained Trading Strategy: Range Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at boundaries Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 with strong confirmation signals Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 with reversal confirmation Risk Management: Stops outside range boundaries Position Sizing: Smaller positions due to unpredictable nature Range Break Strategy: Preparation: Monitor for volume expansion and breakout signals Bullish Break: Above 154.20 targets 157.80-161.95 Bearish Break: Below 141.67 targets 139.58-136.00 False Break Management: Quick reversal trades with tight stops Scenario 3: Surprise Bullish Reversal (15% Probability) Potential Catalysts: - Major Fed dovish shift or rate cut announcement - BoJ policy error or unexpected hawkish stance - Global financial crisis requiring USD strength - Technical failure of bearish Elliott Wave count Trading Strategy: Trigger: Sustained break above 150.00 with heavy volume Confirmation Required: Weekly close above 151.50 Target Sequence: 154.20 → 157.80 → 161.95 → 165.00+ Risk Management: Below 148.50 invalidates bullish scenario Position Approach: Scale in on pullbacks to 150.00-151.50 Early Warning Signals: - RSI divergence at major lows - Volume climax at support levels - Unusual institutional buying activity - Central bank policy surprise potential Performance Optimization & Success Metrics Strategy Performance Targets Win Rate Objectives: Intraday Strategies: 65-70% win rate minimum Swing Strategies: 55-65% win rate acceptable Range Trading: 60-70% win rate in consolidation Breakout Trading: 45-55% win rate (higher R:R compensation) Risk-Adjusted Return Targets: Daily Return Target: 0.5-1.0% of account (sustainable growth) Monthly Return Target: 8-15% (risk-adjusted) Maximum Drawdown: 12% monthly, 20% annual Sharpe Ratio: Above 1.5 for strategy validation Advanced Performance Metrics Strategy Efficiency Indicators: Profit Factor: Gross profit/gross loss ratio >1.8 Average Win vs Average Loss: Minimum 2:1 ratio Consecutive Loss Tolerance: Maximum 4 losing trades Recovery Time: Maximum 2 weeks to recover from significant drawdown Market Timing Effectiveness: Entry Precision: Within 25 pips of optimal entry point Exit Timing: Capture minimum 60% of available move Pattern Recognition Accuracy: 75%+ success rate on major patterns News Impact Prediction: 70%+ accuracy on high-impact events Continuous Improvement Framework Weekly Strategy Review: Trade Journal Analysis: Document all entries, exits, and reasoning Pattern Performance: Track success rates of different setups Market Condition Adaptation: Adjust strategies based on volatility and trending conditions Risk Management Assessment: Evaluate stop-loss and position sizing effectiveness Monthly Strategy Optimization: Backtest Updates: Incorporate new data and market conditions Parameter Adjustment: Optimize indicator settings and confluence requirements Strategy Evolution: Develop new approaches based on market changes Performance Benchmark: Compare against major currency indices and peers Economic Event Calendar & High-Impact Scheduling September 2025 Critical Events Week 1 (September 1-5): September 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (High Impact) September 4: ECB Rate Decision (Medium Impact on USD/JPY) September 5: US Initial Claims + Services PMI (Medium Impact) September 6: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Very High Impact) Week 2 (September 8-12): September 10: US CPI Data (Very High Impact) September 11: ECB Press Conference (Medium Impact) September 12: US PPI Data (Medium Impact) Week 3 (September 15-19): September 17: FOMC Rate Decision (Very High Impact) September 18: BoJ Policy Meeting (Extremely High Impact for JPY) September 19: US Existing Home Sales (Low Impact) Week 4 (September 22-26): September 24: Global PMI Flash Estimates (Medium Impact) September 25: US Durable Goods Orders (Medium Impact) September 26: US GDP Preliminary (High Impact) Event-Specific Trading Strategies BoJ Meeting Strategy (September 18): Pre-Event: Reduce positions by 70% due to intervention risk Event Strategy: Hawkish Surprise: Long JPY (short USD/JPY) immediately Dovish/Status Quo: Monitor for verbal intervention threats Intervention Announcement: Immediate short USD/JPY positioning Post-Event: Wait for volatility to settle before major positioning FOMC Strategy (September 17): Pre-Event: Flat positions 2 hours before announcement Dovish Fed: Bearish USD/JPY, target 144.50-145.50 Hawkish Fed: Bullish USD/JPY, target 149.50-151.20 Neutral Fed: Range trading strategy 146.00-148.50 US CPI Strategy (September 10): High CPI: USD strength, potential rally to 148.50-149.50 Low CPI: USD weakness, potential decline to 145.50-146.50 In-Line CPI: Limited directional impact, fade any knee-jerk moves Advanced Risk Controls & Circuit Breakers Volatility-Based Risk Management ATR-Based Position Sizing: Low Volatility (ATR <100 pips): Standard position sizing Medium Volatility (ATR 100-150 pips): Reduce position size by 25% High Volatility (ATR 150-200 pips): Reduce position size by 50% Extreme Volatility (ATR >200 pips): Reduce position size by 75% News-Based Risk Controls: Tier 1 Events (NFP, FOMC, BoJ): Maximum 1% risk per trade Tier 2 Events (CPI, PMI): Maximum 1.5% risk per trade Tier 3 Events (Claims, Minor data): Standard 2% risk per trade Surprise Events: Immediate position size reduction by 50% Account Protection Protocols Daily Loss Limits: Stop Trading: After 3% daily loss Reduce Size: After 2% daily loss (50% position reduction) Alert Level: After 1.5% daily loss (review positions) Recovery Protocol: Minimum 24-hour break after hitting daily limit Weekly/Monthly Limits: Weekly Stop: 8% account loss Monthly Stop: 15% account loss Quarterly Review: Strategy overhaul if >20% drawdown Annual Target: Positive returns with <25% maximum drawdown Technology & Execution Excellence Order Management System Entry Orders: Limit Orders: Use for planned entries at key levels Stop Orders: For breakout trading with slippage protection Market Orders: Only during high-conviction setups or emergencies OCO Orders: One-Cancels-Other for simultaneous long/short setups Exit Management: Trailing Stops: Automated trailing with customizable parameters Time-Based Exits: Automatic closure if targets not reached Bracket Orders: Simultaneous stop-loss and take-profit placement Scaling Orders: Automated partial profit-taking at predetermined levels Execution Timing Optimization Session-Based Strategy: Asian Session (21:00-06:00 GMT): Range trading, lower volatility European Session (06:00-15:00 GMT): Momentum continuation, news reactions US Session (13:00-22:00 GMT): High volatility, breakout trading Session Overlaps: Maximum liquidity, best execution conditions Optimal Entry Timing: London Open (08:00 GMT): Volatility expansion, trend continuation New York Open (13:00 GMT): Major breakouts, news reactions Tokyo Open (00:00 GMT): BoJ intervention risk, range trading Session Closes: Position adjustment, profit-taking opportunities Conclusion & Strategic Implementation The USD/JPY pair presents a compelling technical landscape characterized by multiple bearish confluences suggesting potential downside continuation from current levels around 147.036. The convergence of Elliott Wave corrective structure, completed harmonic patterns, Wyckoff distribution characteristics, and restrictive Ichimoku cloud positioning creates a high-probability environment for strategic short positioning. Primary Strategic Themes: 1. Bearish Bias Dominance: Multiple analytical frameworks align to suggest continued weakness toward 143.50-140.32 support cluster 2. Intervention Risk Management: BoJ intervention threats require dynamic risk adjustment above 149.50-150.00 levels 3. Range Trading Preparation: Extended consolidation between 141.67-154.20 remains possible alternative scenario 4. Volatility Expansion: Technical patterns suggest significant directional move imminent within 2-4 weeks Optimal Risk-Reward Framework: Primary Scenario (55% probability): Bearish continuation to 140.32-143.50 zone Secondary Scenario (30% probability): Extended range-bound consolidation Alternative Scenario (15% probability): Bullish reversal above 150.00 Critical Success Factors: 1. Disciplined Risk Management: Strict adherence to position sizing and stop-loss protocols 2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Wait for alignment across various analytical methods 3. Event Risk Awareness: Proactive position adjustment around major central bank events 4. Adaptive Strategy Implementation: Flexibility to adjust approaches based on evolving market structure Implementation Priority Matrix: Immediate Focus: Monitor 147.25-148.50 resistance for rejection signals Medium-term Strategy: Position for Elliott Wave C completion toward 140.32-143.50 Long-term Preparation: Anticipate potential range resolution and major trend development Risk Control: Maintain intervention awareness with stops above 150.00-151.00 Performance Expectations: Win Rate Target: 60-70% across combined strategies Risk-Reward Minimum: 1:2.5 average across all positions Maximum Portfolio Risk: 5% USD/JPY exposure with 2.5% individual trade risk Timeline: 6-12 weeks for major pattern completion and target achievement Final Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with defensive positioning, capitalize on rallies into 147.50-149.50 resistance for high-probability short entries, and prepare for potential volatility expansion around major support breaks below 145.50. Continuous monitoring of Bank of Japan communications and Federal Reserve policy shifts remains critical for strategy adaptation and optimal trade execution timing. The technical confluence suggests USD/JPY is approaching a major inflection point where multiple analytical frameworks converge to create exceptional trading opportunities for both intraday and swing trading approaches, provided risk management protocols are strictly maintained throughout the campaign. Risk Disclaimer: Currency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Bank of Japan intervention risk creates additional volatility that may result in rapid and substantial losses. Traders should conduct independent analysis and consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before executing any trading strategies based on this analysis.
by sunya
JPN225 Technical Analysis: Comprehensive Nikkei 225# JPN225 Technical Analysis: Comprehensive Nikkei 225 Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary **Current Price:** 42,087.6 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) **Market Sentiment:** Bullish with consolidation signals near all-time highs **Primary Trend:** Strong uptrend with potential for further extension **Key Resistance:** 43,876 (recent all-time high) The Nikkei 225 continues to demonstrate exceptional strength, trading near record levels after reaching its highest quote on August 19, 2025 at 43,876.42 JPY. The index has shown remarkable resilience with monthly gains of 5.08% and yearly gains of 10.53%, outperforming global peers while benefiting from accommodative global monetary policy and renewed investor confidence in Japanese equities. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Monetary Policy Environment The Bank of Japan maintains a carefully balanced approach with the benchmark interest rate at 0.50 percent, representing a significant shift from the ultra-loose policies of recent years. Markets expect a gradual return to tighter policy likely starting in autumn 2025 or early 2026 if economic conditions remain favorable. Economic Fundamentals The Japanese economy shows signs of sustainable recovery with corporate earnings supporting equity valuations. The recent all-time highs reflect growing expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved global risk sentiment. Key Market Drivers Global Liquidity:** Fed rate cut expectations supporting risk assets Corporate Governance:** Continued improvements in ROE and shareholder returns Yen Dynamics:** Currency stability supporting foreign investment flows Export Recovery:** Gradual improvement in global trade conditions Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis **Monthly Pattern:** Strong bullish engulfing pattern confirming long-term uptrend **Weekly Pattern:** Inside bar formation suggesting consolidation before next move **Daily Pattern:** Small-bodied doji candles near highs indicating indecision **Intraday Patterns:** Morning star and hammer formations frequent in 1H timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis **Primary Wave Count:** Major Degree:** Wave 5 of multi-year bull market cycle in progress Intermediate Degree:** Subwave 3 of 5 potentially completed near 43,876 Minor Degree:** Currently in subwave 4 correction within larger Wave 5 **Alternative Count:** Extended Wave 3 scenario targeting 45,000-46,000 zone **Critical Levels:** Wave 4 support at 40,500-41,000 maintains bullish structure Harmonic Pattern Analysis **Active Patterns:** Bullish Cypher:** Completion zone at 40,800-41,200 (potential retracement target) AB=CD Extension:** Current formation targeting 44,200-44,800 Potential Bearish Gartley:** Formation risk above 44,500 suggesting reversal **Fibonacci Confluence:** - 61.8% retracement of major swing: 41,450 - 38.2% retracement: 42,650 (current area) - 1.618 extension target: 44,200 Wyckoff Method Analysis **Current Phase Assessment:** Sign of Strength (SOS) after successful test **Accumulation Characteristics:** - Volume increasing on advances, decreasing on declines - Spring action completed in July 2025 low - Markup phase showing healthy progression **Composite Operator Activity:** Evidence of institutional accumulation between 40,000-42,000 W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application **Current Position:** 42,087.6 = 205.15° on the Gann wheel **Key Resistance Levels:** - 42,025 (205°) - recently tested - 42,436 (206°) - immediate resistance - 43,681 (209°) - major resistance near ATH **Support Levels:** - 41,616 (204°) - immediate support - 41,209 (203°) - strong support zone - 40,401 (201°) - major support level # Time Theory Application **Critical Time Cycles:** - September 6-9: 90-degree time angle from major low - September 23: Autumn equinox - natural turning point - October 7: 180-degree time cycle completion # Price Squaring Analysis **Square Root of Price:** √42,087.6 = 205.15 **Next Square Levels:** - 206² = 42,436 (immediate resistance) - 207² = 42,849 (intermediate target) - 210² = 44,100 (extended target) **Previous Square Support:** - 204² = 41,616 - 203² = 41,209 - 200² = 40,000 (psychological support) Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis **Current Cloud Configuration:** Tenkan-sen (9):** 42,155 - Price slightly below, neutral bias Kijun-sen (26):** 41,920 - Price above, bullish confirmation Senkou Span A:** 42,037 (cloud top) Senkou Span B:** 40,885 (cloud bottom) **Assessment:** Price trading above cloud with bullish bias intact, though near cloud resistance requiring breakout for continuation. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) **RSI(14):** 52.3 - Neutral zone with slight bullish bias **VWAP:** 42,065 - Price oscillating around VWAP, indecision **Bollinger Bands:** Middle band at 42,070, bands contracting (low volatility) **Volume:** Below average, typical for consolidation phase 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) **MACD:** Histogram flattening, momentum slowing **Stochastic(14,3,3):** 48.2 in neutral territory **Williams %R:** -52% suggesting no extreme conditions **Support/Resistance:** 42,040/42,130 key levels for range 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) **RSI(14):** 58.7 - Neutral with slight bullish momentum **VWAP:** 41,995 providing dynamic support **Moving Averages:** EMA(20) > EMA(50) maintaining bullish alignment **Volume Profile:** High volume node at 42,000-42,100 **Key Levels:** Resistance:** 42,150, 42,250, 42,380 Support:** 42,000, 41,920, 41,800 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) **RSI(14):** 61.4 approaching overbought but not extreme **MACD:** Positive but showing slight divergence with price **Bollinger Bands:** Price near upper band, expansion needed for breakout **ADX(14):** 31.2 indicating moderate trend strength **Critical Levels:** Primary Resistance:** 42,400-42,500 Secondary Resistance:** 43,000-43,200 Primary Support:** 41,700-41,800 Secondary Support:** 41,200-41,400 Daily Chart (Position Trading) **RSI(14):** 64.8 in bullish territory but not overbought **Moving Averages:** All major MAs (20, 50, 100, 200) aligned bullishly **Volume:** Consolidation pattern with average volume **Pattern:** Ascending triangle formation with apex near 42,400 Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) **RSI(14):** 69.1 approaching overbought threshold **MACD:** Strong positive momentum but rate of change slowing **Long-term Trend:** Powerful uptrend since October 2024 low **Major Resistance:** 43,876 (ATH) and 44,000-44,500 zone Monthly Chart (Strategic View) **RSI(14):** 73.2 significantly overbought (caution warranted) **Long-term Pattern:** Multi-year cup and handle completion **Measured Move Target:** 46,000-48,000 based on pattern analysis **Support Structure:** 38,000-40,000 major support zone Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Structure 1. **42,000-42,050:** Psychological level with VWAP confluence 2. **41,920-41,950:** Kijun-sen and previous resistance turned support 3. **41,700-41,800:** Previous consolidation zone with volume 4. **41,400-41,500:** 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level 5. **41,200-41,300:** Square of 9 support and trend line 6. **40,800-41,000:** Major support zone and Elliott Wave 4 target 7. **40,000-40,200:** Psychological and long-term trend support Primary Resistance Structure 1. **42,150-42,200:** Immediate resistance with intraday significance 2. **42,380-42,450:** Square of 9 resistance and daily pivot 3. **42,800-43,000:** Intermediate resistance zone 4. **43,200-43,400:** Previous consolidation resistance 5. **43,800-43,900:** All-time high resistance zone 6. **44,100-44,300:** Extended targets and measured moves 7. **45,000-45,500:** Long-term bull market targets Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 **Market Environment:** Post-weekend positioning, likely range-bound opening **Primary Strategy:** Range trading with breakout preparation **Volatility Expectation:** Below average due to consolidation phase **Intraday Trading Levels:** Long Entry Zone:** 42,020-42,040 - Stop Loss: 41,980 - Target 1: 42,090 (1:1 R/R) - Target 2: 42,140 (1:2 R/R) Short Entry Zone:** 42,140-42,160 - Stop Loss: 42,200 - Target 1: 42,090 (1:1 R/R) - Target 2: 42,040 (1:2 R/R) **Swing Setup:** Monitor for break above 42,200 for continuation to 42,400 Tuesday, September 3, 2025 **Market Environment:** Potential volatility increase, global macro focus **Primary Strategy:** Momentum trading with trend following bias **Key Events:** Watch for any BOJ communication or USD/JPY moves **Trading Approach:** Bullish Scenario:** Break above 42,200 targets 42,350-42,400 - Entry: 42,210-42,230 - Stop: 42,150 - Targets: 42,320, 42,400 Bearish Scenario:** Break below 42,000 targets 41,850-41,900 - Entry: 41,990-42,010 - Stop: 42,050 - Targets: 41,920, 41,850 **Risk Management:** Reduce position sizes by 25% given potential volatility Wednesday, September 4, 2025 **Market Environment:** Mid-week consolidation expected **Primary Strategy:** Scalping within established range **Focus:** High-frequency opportunities with tight risk management **Scalping Strategy:** Range Parameters:** 42,000-42,180 Long Scalps:** 42,010-42,025, Target: 42,070-42,090 Short Scalps:** 42,150-42,165, Target: 42,100-42,080 Stop Losses:** 15-20 points maximum for scalp trades **Breakout Preparation:** Bullish Breakout:** Above 42,200 with volume confirmation Bearish Breakdown:** Below 41,980 with increased selling pressure Thursday, September 5, 2025 **Market Environment:** Potential trending day, higher volatility expected **Primary Strategy:** Breakout trading with momentum confirmation **Critical Factors:** Volume analysis crucial for sustained moves **Breakout Scenarios:** Upside Breakout:** Above 42,250 - Targets: 42,400, 42,550, 42,700 - Volume Requirement: 1.5x average - Stop Loss: 42,150 Downside Breakdown:** Below 41,950 - Targets: 41,800, 41,650, 41,500 - Volume Requirement: 1.3x average - Stop Loss: 42,050 **Position Management:** - Scale into positions on confirmed breakouts - Trail stops aggressively after first target achieved Friday, September 6, 2025 **Market Environment:** Weekly close positioning, potential profit-taking **Primary Strategy:** End-of-week consolidation trading **Focus:** Weekly close levels for next week's setup **Weekly Close Strategy:** Bullish Close:** Above 42,150 sets up next week advance Neutral Close:** 42,000-42,150 maintains current range Bearish Close:** Below 42,000 suggests correction risk **Day Trading Approach:** Morning Session:** Trend continuation from Thursday Afternoon Session:** Range trading and position squaring Final Hour:** Light volume, avoid new large positions Advanced Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Guidelines **Account Risk per Trade:** 5M Scalping:** 0.25-0.5% maximum risk 15M Scalping:** 0.5-0.75% maximum risk 1H Day Trading:** 1-1.5% maximum risk 4H Swing Trading:** 1.5-2% maximum risk Daily Position Trading:** 2-3% maximum risk Stop Loss Parameters **Timeframe-Specific Stops:** 5-Minute Charts:** 30-50 points maximum 15-Minute Charts:** 50-80 points maximum 1-Hour Charts:** 80-120 points maximum 4-Hour Charts:** 150-250 points maximum Daily Charts:** 300-500 points maximum Profit-Taking Strategy **Systematic Approach:** First Target (50% position):** 1:1 Risk/Reward ratio Second Target (30% position):** 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio Third Target (20% position):** 1:3+ Risk/Reward ratio Trailing Stops:** Implement after first target achievement Maximum Daily Loss Limits Scalping Combined:** -1% of account maximum Day Trading:** -2% of account maximum Swing Positions:** -3% of account maximum Total Portfolio:** -5% daily stop loss (all strategies combined) Geopolitical and Market Risk Assessment Domestic Risk Factors **Bank of Japan Policy:** - Expected gradual tightening starting autumn 2025 - Communication changes could trigger volatility - Yield curve control adjustments impacting bond markets **Economic Indicators:** - Corporate earnings season performance - Wage growth and inflation data - Consumer spending patterns International Risk Factors **US Federal Reserve Policy:** - Interest rate cut expectations driving current rally - Any hawkish surprises could trigger risk-off sentiment - Dollar strength impacting Japanese export competitiveness **China Economic Data:** - Manufacturing PMI and economic indicators - Trade relationship developments - Commodity demand affecting Japanese materials sector **Geopolitical Considerations:** - Regional security tensions - Trade policy developments - Energy security concerns Currency Risk (USD/JPY Impact) **Current Dynamics:** - Yen stability supporting foreign investment - Intervention risk if excessive yen weakness - Carry trade dynamics affecting equity flows **Key Levels to Monitor:** - USD/JPY above 155: Intervention risk increases - USD/JPY below 140: Export competitiveness concerns - Current range 145-150 supportive for equities Sector Analysis and Rotation Themes Outperforming Sectors 1. **Technology:** AI and semiconductor strength 2. **Financial Services:** Rising rate environment benefits 3. **Export-Oriented Manufacturing:** Stable yen supporting margins 4. **Tourism and Services:** Domestic consumption recovery Underperforming Sectors 1. **Utilities:** Interest rate sensitivity 2. **Real Estate:** Commercial property concerns 3. **Traditional Retail:** E-commerce competition 4. **Energy Imports:** Cost pressures from global prices Rotation Indicators Growth vs Value:** Currently favoring quality growth Domestic vs Export:** Balanced performance Large Cap vs Small Cap:** Large cap leadership maintained Advanced Pattern Recognition Ichimoku Trading Signals **Current Setup:** Tenkan/Kijun twist near cloud top **Bullish Signals:** Price above cloud, future cloud bullish **Entry Trigger:** Break above Tenkan-sen with volume **Exit Signal:** Return below Kijun-sen or cloud Gann-Based Trade Setups **Square of 9 Long:** Buy at 203° (41,209) target 206° (42,436) **Square of 9 Short:** Sell at 206° (42,436) target 203° (41,209) **Time Cycles:** Major turns expected September 6-9 window Wyckoff Phase Analysis **Current Assessment:** Markup Phase B **Expected Development:** Test of supply around 43,000 **Bullish Continuation:** Successful test leads to Phase C **Distribution Risk:** Heavy volume above 43,500 warns of Phase A Market Microstructure Considerations High-Frequency Trading Impact **Active Zones:** Increased HFT activity around 42,000 and 42,200 **Optimal Entry Times:** 9:00-9:30 JST and 14:30-15:00 JST **Liquidity Concerns:** Reduced depth above 43,000 level Algorithmic Trading Patterns **Support/Resistance:** Algorithms defending 42,000 level **Momentum Algos:** Active above 42,200 breakout level **Mean Reversion:** Strong between 42,000-42,150 range Order Flow Analysis **Large Block Activity:** Evidence near 42,000 support **Institutional Flows:** Accumulation on weakness below 42,000 **Retail Sentiment:** Generally bullish but positioning light Technology Integration and Tools Recommended Platforms 1. **TradingView:** Comprehensive charting and analysis 2. **MT5/MT4:** Order execution and automation 3. **Bloomberg Terminal:** Real-time data and news flow 4. **Refinitiv Eikon:** Fundamental analysis integration Alert Systems **Price Alerts:** - 42,200 breakout level - 42,000 breakdown level - 43,000 major resistance - 41,500 major support **Volume Alerts:** - 1.5x average volume spikes - Unusual options activity - Block trade notifications **News Alerts:** - BOJ communications - Economic data releases - Geopolitical developments - Corporate earnings surprises Seasonal and Cyclical Analysis Historical Patterns **September Performance:** Typically weak month for Japanese equities **Q4 Seasonality:** Strong performance into year-end typically **Monthly Cycles:** Pension fund flows mid-month supporting prices Holiday Calendar Impact **Labor Day (Sep 2):** Reduced US market activity **Autumnal Equinox (Sep 23):** Japanese market closed **Sports Day (Oct 13):** Market holiday consideration Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The Nikkei 225 stands at a critical inflection point, having achieved new all-time highs while showing signs of consolidation near these elevated levels. The technical picture remains constructively bullish across most timeframes, though some overbought conditions on longer-term charts warrant measured optimism. **Key Investment Themes:** 1. **Trend Continuation:** Primary uptrend intact with higher high potential 2. **Range Trading Opportunity:** 42,000-42,400 range likely to persist near-term 3. **Breakout Preparation:** Accumulation above 42,400 could trigger significant advance 4. **Risk Management Priority:** Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing **Week Ahead Strategy:** - Favor range trading initially with breakout preparation - Monitor volume carefully for sustained directional moves - Reduce position sizes given September seasonality concerns - Focus on high-probability setups with multiple confluence factors **Medium-term Outlook (1-3 months):** The combination of supportive global liquidity conditions, improving Japanese corporate fundamentals, and technical momentum suggests potential for further advances toward 44,000-45,000. However, traders should remain vigilant for any shift in central bank communications or global risk sentiment that could trigger meaningful corrections. **Risk Scenarios:** Bullish Case:** Break above 43,900 targets 45,000-46,000 Base Case:** Consolidation between 41,500-43,500 through September Bearish Case:** Break below 41,000 suggests correction to 39,000-40,000 The technical analysis framework presented incorporates multiple methodologies to provide robust trade identification and risk management protocols. Market participants should adapt position sizes and holding periods based on their risk tolerance and market conditions while maintaining disciplined adherence to the technical levels identified. --- *This analysis represents a comprehensive technical assessment based on multiple methodologies and should be combined with proper risk management and individual risk tolerance considerations. Markets can exhibit unexpected behavior, and all trading decisions should incorporate current market conditions and individual financial circumstances.*
PEPPERSTONE:JPN225
by sunya
Japan's inflation rate expected to ease, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, up 0.39% on the day. Japan releases the July inflation report on Friday. The markets will be especially interested in the core rate, which is expected to ease to 3.0% y/y, from 3.3% in June. Core CPI includes energy but excludes fresh food. Core CPI has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years but the central bank has been slow to raise interest rates. BoJ Governor Ueda has said that the Bank will not raise rates until underlying inflation, which is generated by domestic demand and wages, is sustainably at 2%. The BoJ raised rates to 0.5% in January but took its foot off the rate-hike pedal when Donald Trump became President and imposed a hard-hitting tariff policy which shook up the financial markets. Now that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement and greatly reduced the uncertainty over tariffs, a major obstacle to raising rates has been removed. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's decision at the meeting to maintain rates was widely expected but the meeting made headlines when two FOMC members went against the majority and voted for a rate cut. This was the first time in over 30 years that more than one member voted against a rate decision. The minutes reflected this dissension, noting the differing views on the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. The economy faces an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment, complicating rate decisions. At the meeting, the majority judged higher inflation as the greater risk while the minority believed that the deterioration in the labour market was the greater risk. The Fed is widely expected to lower rates in September, after holding rates since December 2024.
by OANDA
Would Firm Treasury Yield Continue to Support USDJPY?Fundamental approach: - USDJPY edged higher this week amid resilient US growth signals and firm Treasury yields, while dovish-leaning BoJ communication kept Japanese rates anchored. Risk sentiment was mixed ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. - US data and Fed repricing supported the US dollar as markets weighed sticky services momentum and steady consumption into Jul, focusing on how minutes may shape Sep cut odds. - In Japan, authorities maintained vigilance on FX moves and inflation normalization, but BoJ policy settings and modest wage/inflation follow-through limited Yen support. - USDJPY could remain supported if Fed minutes and Jackson Hole skew hawkish, while any signs of softer US demand or a stronger BoJ tilt could cap gains. Upcoming US PMIs and durable goods, plus Tokyo CPI, may recalibrate rate differentials. Technical approach: - USDJPY is sideways above the key support at 147.00. The price is slightly above both EMAs and within the ascending channels, indicating a potential upward movement. - If USDJY remains above 147.00 and both EMAs, the price may retest the resistance at 148.60. - On the contrary, closing below support at 147.00 may prompt a decline to retest the following support at 146.00, which is confluent with the ascending channel's lower bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Expectation of Fed rate cut and BoJ rate hike dampen the USDJPYDue to the recent softer US CPI print and weakening labor market data since the start of the month, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have increased. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in three rate cuts for this year, with the earliest likely to occur in September. Meanwhile, in Japan, inflation has also eased, while concerns about US demand have diminished. Japan's 2Q GDP is expected to rebound to 0.4%, avoiding a technical recession. As a result, markets anticipate the BoJ may hike rates further, which would lend additional support to the yen against the US dollar. Technically, USDJPY has formed a downtrend, characterized by lower swing low and a bearish extension of its EMAs. If USDJPY falls below the 146 support level, the currency pair could test the next support at 145. Conversely, if USD/JPY recovers above both the 21 and 78 EMAs, the price may surge toward the resistance at 149.00. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Analyst at Exness.
Short
by WiseLeoTrading
BoJ minutes indicate potential rate hike, yen slipsThe Japanese yen is lower on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 147.66 in the North American session, up 0.38% on the day. The Bank of Japan minutes from the July 31 meeting signaled that the BoJ remains committed to further rate hikes. This reiterates comments from BOJ President Ueda that he will raise rates, provided that growth and inflation are in line with the BoJs forecasts. At the same time, members expressed concern about the uncetainty due to tariffs. Members acknowledged that the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan had reduced uncertainty and had made it more likely that inflation would be sustainable at the 2% target. Still, members noted that "high uncertainties remain regarding trade policies and their impact". On Thursday, the government lowered its growth forecast for this fiscal year due to US tariffs and sticky inflation, which has hurt capital expenditure and consumer demand. Speaking of consumer demand, Japan's household spending nosedived in in June with a decline of 5.2%. This was a sharp reversal from the May gain of 4.6% and well below the market estimate of -3.0%. Year-on-year, household spending eased to 1.3%, compared to 4.7% in May and shy of the market estimate of 2.6%. The Federal Reserve is on track to lower rates in September, which would mark the first rate reduction since December 2024. Last week's soft July employment report saw nonfarm payrolls fall to 73 thousand. This was well short of the market estimate of 110 thousand and included sharp downward revisions to the May and June releases. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 147.30 and is testing 147.45. Above, there is resistance at 147.89 1.4694 and 146.75 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BoJ minutes indicate more rate hikes coming, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.74, up 0.45% on the day. The Bank of Japan minutes from the June policy meeting were somewhat dovish, but the yen has still headed lower today. The minutes indicated that most BoJ members favored keeping interest rates unchanged, since there were downside risks to Japan's economy due to US tariffs. Still, Governor Ueda and most members support further rate hikes down the road, provided that inflation and growth continue to increase in line with the BoJ projections. This stance was reiterated at last week's meeting, with the BoJ signalling that it planned further rate hikes if inflation and growth increased. At the meeting, the BoJ revised up its inflation forecasts for this fiscal year to 2.7%, from 2.2% in the April forecast. The central bank also raised its growth forecast by 0.1% from the April forecast. The June meeting took place prior to the US-Japan trade agreement, which the BoJ said has reduced trade uncertainty. The trade deal should pave the way for another rate hike before the end of the year. The BoJ reacted positively to the agreement, which applies 15% tariffs on most Japanese imports to the US. The ISM services PMI is expected to accelerate to 51.5 in July, compared to 50.8 in June. The services sector is back in expansion territory after a rare contraction (49.9) in May. Services purchase managers pointed to the uncertainty over tariff impacts as their number one concern. On Friday, ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.0 for July, down from 49.5 in June. This marked the fifth consecutive contraction for manufacturing.
by OANDA
BoJ keep interest rate unchanged, yen weakeningFollowing the July meeting, the BoJ maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, citing prevailing uncertainties from trade tariffs. Concurrently, the BoJ revised its inflation forecast upward to 2.7% YoY from 2.2%. The central bank's language on economic uncertainty has become less pessimistic, downgrading trade policy risks from "extremely high" to "high uncertainties remain," which signals a growing, albeit cautious, confidence in the economic outlook. In the US, the June PCE surged to 2.6% YoY, surpassing the 2.5% prev. cons. The increase was attributed to tariff impacts, with Goods prices rising 0.4% MoM, the fastest pace since January, while Services prices held steady at 0.2% MoM. The higher-than-expected US PCE data and the BoJ's decision to hold interest rates have continued to drive further appreciation of the USDJPY. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The USD/JPY pair is trading above its EMAs extensions, signaling a continuation of the bullish momentum. The price has successfully breached the ascending resistance trendline. However, the RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting that the current rally may be extended, and a potential pullback could be imminent. The pair could continue to test the resistance level at 151.367. Should it fail to break this level, a rebound could see the USD/JPY pair test the support at 149.65. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Long
by WiseLeoTrading
AUD/JPY: Capitalizing on the RBA-BoJ Monetary Policy GapThis analysis outlines a compelling short opportunity in AUD/JPY, driven by a powerful confluence of fundamental and technical factors. The trade is strategically positioned ahead of a key catalyst that could unlock significant downside potential. 1️⃣ The Core Thesis: A Clear Policy Divergence The primary driver behind this trade is the stark and widening gap in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The RBA is signaling a clear dovish pivot amid a weakening labor market, making an interest rate cut imminent. Conversely, the BoJ is in a tightening phase, creating a fundamental headwind for the AUD relative to the JPY. This divergence underpins the strategic bearish bias. 2️⃣ The Confirmation: Technical Alignment This fundamental view is supported by a clear technical picture. The pair is in a well-defined downtrend and is currently testing a critical support level. This alignment of fundamental and technical factors presents a clear short opportunity, with the entry positioned for a breakdown below this key juncture. 3️⃣ The Catalyst: The RBA Bulletin The immediate catalyst for this trade is the upcoming RBA Bulletin on July 24, 2025. Any dovish language from the RBA concerning Australia's economic outlook will likely reinforce expectations for a rate cut and accelerate the downward move in AUD/JPY. The Trade Setup ✅ Here is the recommended trade setup: 📉 Trade: SHORT AUD/JPY 👉 Entry: 96.56200 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 96.96386 🎯 Take Profit: 95.49900 🧠 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.65 This setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile, capitalizing on a clear and powerful macroeconomic theme. The trade is designed to perform should the expected catalyst confirm the underlying bearish fundamentals.
Short
by MaxellAguiran