The ceiling of 100 has been a historically stubborn level. But looking at the same level on a longer horizon also shows the explosion of dollar strength above 100. The market only expects two rate hikes in 2016 despite the Fed dot plot estimating four. The market has not begun to factor in additional moves and other fundamental features that are dollar positive...
With the technical validation of the fundamental environment, it appears the new range for EURUSD is 1.08 to 1.055 The continuous slide of USDJPY without follow-through in the dollar lends itself to the conclusion of winding down long positions in USDJPY lacking the apparent short in dollar alone. The prevailing rhetoric is "safe haven" seeking, that leads to the...
Since Fed's inaction to raise interest rates and the publicatin of very poor NFP data carry and commodity currencies are absolute outperformers. The trend might continue is case of further negative US data publication...
After seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big...
There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month. It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet. The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon. I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date,...
We can expect to buy a retracement and ride it to at least one of the two targets above. Positive carry quickly adds up while you hold the position open, be it in profit or a drawdown, as you wait to hit your target. I'd like to go long here, but need a retracement entry. Patience is a virtue they say...