- Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March
- wage growth steadily above 10%
- GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy
The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%.
The Russian currency has gained 5.7% against the Dollar thus far this year, following a large depreciation in December, resulting from an anticipation of more Western sanctions. The Ruble regained its strength in January though as the continuation of the US government shutdown and expectations of a global slowdown made the currency look more attractive. Most...
(BGM: Yesterday once more)
This pair is a very good vehicle for carry trade, but in terms of carry trade, of course we still need stop loss and appropriate profit taking.
"Every trade should have an entry and an out"
If carry trade works, we can earn interest at the same time; if it fails, the interests could recover some of the risk.
That's totally different...
USD/HUF reversed like in the textbooks (XABCD) till 161.8 Fib.
The bullish trend still has rate differential support with Fed not being afraid to hike further despite Trump rhetoric.
Next level is 295 previous high.
There is a big opportunity to make profits using carry trading strategy.
If you open short position on EURTRY and hold it for a year, you will gain 15.9% on swaps.(usd account)
short position eurtry. volume 100k - 1 standard lot.
49.67$ will be paid to your account every time you hold your position overnight. (3 times over weekend).
In one year you will...
REER based TRY undervaluation: 47%
National Bank stepped in to protect TRY
Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment
It is relatively expensive to short the TRY
Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey
EURNOK is setting up a low volatility breakout on the weekly chart.
This may be longer-term carry trading idea, but be sure to check
your rollover and spreads because it's an expensive pair to trade
and the volatility alone makes it troublesome.
We have been hearing some negative sentiment in the market, about how the next recession is near and coming...
The thing here is you need to realize where you are 'hearing' such news from. Ahem... most of the time, likely from the news or media.
The question here is are they really that reliable?
Well... based on our analysis (not the AUDJPY of course), we are...
I am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all...
OANDA:USDJPY just had a breakdown not only breaking the weekly 200MA but also the lower support channel but nothing goes in one direction in the markets so I expect a pullback before another move downwards.
The price is currently between the daily and weekly 200MA so I expect sideways action with a slight bullish bias in the short term. It will be
OANDA:USDJPY looks like its bouncing back up after a severe downmove forming a nice channel.
4H Timeframe View:
It was able to pullback and even retest the 20MA in the 4H timeframe so it will be great if it touches the 50MA(yellow line) and hold above it for a confirmation of the short term uptrend.
My short at Friday's close...my currency wave indicates that oil is over bought. and has been since Christmas. COT reports shows new money (retail), MM, Chinese, etc.. are all long, at +seven to one (7/1), with record net positions. Both the timing and direction of the dxy/oil value wave, confirms this is a carry trade. Cheap money leveraged longs.. with little or...