Many people will turn bearish here, I'm incredibly scared of taking this trade myself, so I'll try to short today's 50% retracement to enter risk free. I still want to try this. The setup is to buy the retracement, as low as it gets, while above the mode. There's also a range expansion bar in both weekly and monthly timeframes that gives us a chance of buying...
Can eurusd rally past the quarterly resistance? With the intense fall in the equities today, I think it's possible that eurusd rallies and confirms this time at mode weekly uptrend. Rgmov broke a trendline and it seems to have bottomed for the time being. The level to break is 1.13958, today. Once past it, we should see new highs really fast, and start travelling...
I'm entering short here, rgmov doesn't agree with the recent rallying and we have one daily range expansion bar that failed. There is a 16 week mode above, and quarterly, monthly and weekly range expansion resistance. If this week closes under this mode, it will confirm a decline to parity, roughly. Today the Fed statement seemed dovish to many, and there are a...
The proof is in the pudding, well it is in the globalized failing of quantitative easing. Abeconomics is no different. Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will continue to feel pressure as his "three arrows" economic policy fails to push consistent economic expansion. Japan's economy shrank 1.6 percent on an annualized basis with falling exports and contracting...
Since all the rumours of ECB QE were sold, and the actual thing was announced on early February, EUR/USD has been trading rangebound throughout 2015 with most of the price action developed in the 1,08-1,12 band. Hindsight is 20/20, but the best trades this year have been to buy the lows and sell the highs; and there's reason to believe this will hold for the...
If we don't reach this price level during this week, cancel the pending buy stop. I think it's possible to see the Dax start an uptrend in the weekly, but first I'd need to see price accelerate away from the mode in this timeframe. I had entered already using the 4h chart, but my target in that timeframe is lower (11550). Entry was 11421, SL 11244. The entry...
Analysis on chart. I'll update it once I see a clear short signal in the weekly chart. Daily remains turbulent and unclear, it's possible to see a small rally, so shorting is a bit dangerous unless using wide stops and going long is even worse. I'll analyze price action and look into selling short once we see confirmation here. Crude oil seems to have resumed the...
Analysis on chart, see related idea for explanation and more details. Cheers, Ivan.
Simple trade, trends are pretty clear here I believe. EURGBP is a strong downtrend and will resume its direction this week I believe. GBPUSD is an interesting long setup, with 11 weeks at one price and sitting above the mode currently. You can market buy now, but it'll be 100% confirmed once it reaches my entry level on chart (1.57084). Targets are for both time...
Analysis on chart, target is both time and price. Can reverse when reached. Good luck, Ivan.
The downtrend has been corrective, based on the sluggish pace and the internal structure. We didn't get the selloff I expected. Enter long now, stop under the lows. Risking 2.5% on it, closing 75% once I match the distance to the stop. Good luck, Ivan.
I came to the following conclusion after studying this chart extensively: This is either a corrective structure or a nested impulse. The last bearish time at mode targets matches an interesting fibonacci projection with perfect ratios for a corrective expanding wedge structure, which some might see as an impulse (can be either an expanding ending diagonal C wave,...
An addendum to my EURAUD weekly forecast chart, couldn't get the targets to be readable in the other chart so here it is. I don't normally give stop and exit reccomendations but this one seemed easy to project realistically without making changes along the way (which is the way my trading logic works, difficult to translate into one static forecast). Good luck, Ivan.
Analysis on chart. We can try a tighter stop loss under the low using 1 atr as buffer too. Good luck, Ivan.
EURUSD appears to be failing below a critical resistance zone which stretches between 1.1384 - 1.1442. 1.1384 is yesterday's high and coincides with the long term descending trendline connecting the July, September and December swing highs. 1.442 was the highest daily close in the Head and Shoulders pattern from 3 weeks ago. We have entered short at 1.1302 with...
Interesting observations about EURNZD, if you are long from the bottom, good for you! But where do you take profits? Where do you scale in or how do you trail stops? Good questions that depend on your own methodology. Here, I'm seeing multiple hints for a possible top in this relentless rally. Everyone's pessimistic about the New Zealand Dollar, which makes me...
EURUSD is one tricky chart, compared to the other euro pairs I'm trading. I suspect we will see volatility, which will get as many people stopped as possible, while still having the stronger moves to the upside. The weekly is building modes higher and higher, and just confirmed a 9 week uptrend signal, which might run into low volume resistance in the 1.16786...
I entered a long here. Price is sitting at a weekly mode since the lowest low. There's a daily downtrend signal that expired yesterday, and it seems like GBPUSD is ready for a move up. It's interesting how the monthly mode has supported price here, while the daily was in a downtrend, with strong up bars in between, and the weekly showing us no new low in 5 weeks...