IvanLabrie

EURUSD: Wait for confirmation

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Can eurusd             rally past the quarterly resistance?
With the intense fall in the equities today, I think it's possible that eurusd             rallies and confirms this time at mode weekly uptrend.
Rgmov broke a trendline and it seems to have bottomed for the time being.
The level to break is 1.13958, today.
Once past it, we should see new highs really fast, and start travelling towards 1.21880.
Stop loss for the long trade would be at 1.11878 or lower, but we need confirmation, a very sharp rally, sharper than any of the previous declines, and a new high above 1.145 asap             , otherwise it might be a retracement prior to a fall to parity or close.
There's a daily uptrend that expires on the 25th, this will be a key date to watch. If we get the move above 1.13958 today and a 50% retracement from this week's open to today's eventual high, we can happily go long there with a stop at the mode (or at this week's open).
I'll be monitoring it closely, for now, focusing on other pairs to trade intraday and to take advantage of pair trading opportunities.
Good luck!
Ivan.
Entered long eurusd at 1.13, stop at 1.12149. (monthly mode high).
If it is to rally it shouldn't retrace any lower now.
Also, the crude weekly 9 week downtrend is about to expire by the 31st.

snapshot


Rgmov confirms this is the start of a new directional leg up. I think wave 1-2 despite what other analysts think (traditional EW doesn't conceive that this is a terminal pattern's conclusion, and not at the lowest low!).
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
snapshot
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I'll be looking for a retracement to go long, I think the uptrend has reversed here.
See my last publication:
FXE and FXY: Carry trade unwind triggers longterm rally
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No bullish confirmation. Gap down open as expected.
Small move for now.
Let's see how it unfolds.
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Held on to my long for the weekend so hopefully no gap down... ;-), hopefully we will get to at least the upper boundary of the current range we are in. Bullish for the time being but watching what PA does around the range boundary... Good luck with your short position!
My views:
EURUSD update: watch for the triangle breakout!
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I think in Neowave terms, this isn't a contracting triangle.
My reasoning is that options expiration will send it down again like it has happened before here.
There's a range expansion quarterly bar (if you look at the quarterly chart you'll see a gigantic range bar, and if you measure the 50% level from open to low, it's around this area). This lines up with the weekly resistance as well, providing me with a safe place for a stop loss.
I took the trade because if it works, and goes back under 1.11878, it can continue down violently, making this an optimal entry for that scenario. If stopped I'll wait and go long.
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KVE IvanLabrie
Thanks for your reply, I've aready learned alot since I joined tradingview but still have a long way to go... Yet another factor to look at: options expiration, I had already considered but will look into closer now! Thanks and good luck!
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Thanks for sharing your trading view ;)
Good luck this week, will be interesting for sure.
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No range expansion this week, I shorted the near top.
Hopefully we open with a gap down.
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moneymaking IvanLabrie
Awesome, I also recently shorted with small position. Will add more if we open on Sunday near the same point. All the BEST mate and have a great weekend, enjoy :)
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