With the intense fall in the equities today, I think it's possible that eurusd rallies and confirms this time at mode weekly uptrend.
Rgmov broke a and it seems to have bottomed for the time being.
The level to break is 1.13958, today.
Once past it, we should see new highs really fast, and start travelling towards 1.21880.
Stop loss for the long trade would be at 1.11878 or lower, but we need confirmation, a very sharp rally, sharper than any of the previous declines, and a new high above 1.145 asap , otherwise it might be a retracement prior to a fall to parity or close.
There's a daily uptrend that expires on the 25th, this will be a key date to watch. If we get the move above 1.13958 today and a from this week's open to today's eventual high, we can happily go long there with a stop at the mode (or at this week's open).
I'll be monitoring it closely, for now, focusing on other pairs to trade intraday and to take advantage of pair trading opportunities.
If it is to rally it shouldn't retrace any lower now.
Also, the crude weekly 9 week downtrend is about to expire by the 31st.
Rgmov confirms this is the start of a new directional leg up. I think wave 1-2 despite what other analysts think (traditional EW doesn't conceive that this is a terminal pattern's conclusion, and not at the lowest low!).
My reasoning is that options expiration will send it down again like it has happened before here.
There's a range expansion quarterly bar (if you look at the quarterly chart you'll see a gigantic range bar, and if you measure the 50% level from open to low, it's around this area). This lines up with the weekly resistance as well, providing me with a safe place for a stop loss.
I took the trade because if it works, and goes back under 1.11878, it can continue down violently, making this an optimal entry for that scenario. If stopped I'll wait and go long.