Delayed 10k - ETH weekly update Sep 8 - 14thEthereum currently presents a very unclear picture — on one hand, it could be a fantastic buying opportunity, while on the other, it could also lead to significant losses. One possible interpretation is that Cycle Wave 3 has already completed and we are now in Cycle Wave 4, which may even have ended with a completed Double Three structure. Alternatively, this could still be Intermediate Wave 4, which should soon transition into Intermediate Wave 5. Overall, the situation remains highly complex.
The order book shows substantial clusters of orders above, particularly around the $5k level, as well as below, just under the local low. While orders act as magnets for price, it is not uncommon for reversals to occur right before hitting such clusters. The liquidation heatmap shows more liquidity below, around $4k, than above, leaving the liquidity bias overall neutral.
Derivative data indicates that funding rates, which had been fluctuating between slightly positive and negative, have now returned to normal positive levels. Open interest remains stagnant. From this perspective, the bias leans slightly bullish.
The next two weeks will be crucial for the crypto market and the potential onset of an alt-season. Several key economic data releases are scheduled this week, which could impact next week’s interest rate decision. Importantly, such a rate cut may well turn into a “sell the news” event. Already today, many altcoins (excluding Ethereum) are rallying, and dominance in both Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining, suggesting that capital is flowing out of the two giants into smaller altcoins. At the same time, flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are stagnating, while the Solana ETF continues to grow.
We are entering the decisive phase — there is a lot of money to be made, but even more to be lost without proper risk management. Stick to the plan and stay disciplined.
