Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown in Play - Target $74k - $75kAnd this chart of Bitcoin we see the Bear Flag pattern playing out as forecast by the Red zigzag line a few weeks ago.
Price pushed up directly into the Red Cell Zone which are just visualizations of limit sell orders on the order books. Similarly, there are strong limit buy orders in the buy support green zone below around 84 to 85k.
But based on my prior study of the macro Head and Shoulders that likely will play out, even if we get it bounce here I do believe we will roll over and take out the buy support Zone below us and complete the Bear Flag measured move target down to 74k to 75k.
This will likely be the bottom, as Bitcoin is never gone below the price it was when a new incoming president won an election. 74k was a prior resistance level flipped as support and I expected to hold.
If it doesn't, then likely Bitcoin can head to 62k which would be the measured move on the macro Head and Shoulders in the prior study here.
In the meantime, lots of uncertainty in the markets, that could drive prices either way in the short term.
Today we have FOMC and although there is a 97% chance they do not cut rates, Powell's comments will be important and may move the markets depending on how hawkish or doveish he sounds.
With war tensions in the Middle East and Iran's escalatory language, Market participants are staying out as they don't like uncertainty.
On the other hand, hearing rumors that the US is buying Japanese yen to help prop up their currency and potentially start the money printer which would be bullish.
The DXY is also heading down, and if it breaks the 95 level then typically we enter another bullish phase as we saw in 2021.
Let me know your thoughts!
FOMC
Gold Breakout and Potential Retrace! Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GOLD for a selling opportunity around 4,980 zone, Gold was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 4,980 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Under Pressure? Warsh Fed Pick Puts 1.19500 in Play!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are closely monitoring EURUSD around the 1.19500 zone. EURUSD remains in a broader downtrend and is currently undergoing a corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 1.19500 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as a critical reaction zone.
From a fundamental perspective, markets are digesting President Trump’s announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as a conventional and fiscally disciplined choice, which could be USD-supportive in the near term. This shift in expectations may apply downside pressure on EURUSD, while also being short-term bearish for Gold, as tighter policy credibility supports the Dollar.
As always, wait for confirmation at key levels and manage risk accordingly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
AUDUSD Buy Setup | 0.69800 Support + Bullish Gold Prices!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are closely monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.69800 zone. AUDUSD remains in a well-established bullish trend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 0.69800 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as a strong demand zone for trend continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, the Australian Dollar often benefits from its positive correlation with Gold. With Gold prices maintaining a constructive bullish tone, this relationship could provide additional upside support for AUDUSD, reinforcing the bullish technical setup and favoring a continuation toward higher levels.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Gold breaks $5600 post FOMC: Dissents, Iran & path to $6kGold extended its record-breaking rally to a fresh high of ~$5,620 on Thursday, driven by a perfect storm of dollar weakness, Fed uncertainty, and escalating geopolitical risks. In this video, we analyse why the precious metal is surging despite the Fed holding rates and map out the long-term path to the psychological $6,000 target.
Key topics :
Fundamental catalyst : How the Fed’s decision to hold rates, marred by two dissents and the ongoing investigation into Chair Powell, has shattered confidence in the central bank.
Geopolitics & dollar : We discuss the impact of President Trump’s "speed and violence" warning to Iran and why the US dollar has collapsed to 4-year lows despite "strong dollar" rhetoric from the Treasury.
Weekly chart : A look at the multi-year Elliott Wave 5 structure. We have cleared the 3.618 extension at 5,350 and are now eyeing the 4.236 Fibonacci extension, which aligns perfectly with $6,000.
Short-term setup : On the 4-hour chart, price is testing the 200% extension near $5,600. And guess what? The 261.8% also aligns with the $6,000 mark. But we identify the key support levels that must hold to sustain this parabolic move.
Is the move to $6k inevitable, or is a pullback due? Let us know in the comments!
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
A quick FOMC Report today due to the increased volatility in the markets and the move we wanted already having been achieved.
We have the lower support level here at 5306 level which needs to break to go lower, while the resistance above is sitting at 5335-40 which in our opinion needs to break to go higher. We’ve added the hot spots and we’ll publish the red box targets and algo targets, however, we will say this, these are risky markets and although price is moving without pull backs, they’re going to want you in high before they make that correction.
Sentiment doesn’t seem to be there yet with the confidence in the move lacking, so one way to do that is to drop the price, and get those buyers in at every support level.
Caution is needed, let them move the price, once it settles, the structure will form for the trade to present itself.
RED BOXES:
Break above 5410 for 5415, 5420 and 5434 in extension of the move
Break below 5379 for 5370, 5358, 5350 and 5427 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD Intraday Plan | Key Levels Ahead of FOMCGold has extended its rally and is now trading around 5300. Resistance and support zones have been updated accordingly.
Price has broken above the 5263 resistance, opening the 5324 target. However, a pullback is likely, and it’s important to see whether 5263 can hold as support.
If 5263 gives way, watch the pullback zone for potential reactions. Should selling pressure persist, a deeper retracement into the lower support zones may follow.
A confirmed break above 5324 would open the door for a move toward 5377.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
5324
5377
Support:
5263
5211
5157
5117
5073
5030
4993
👉 Let key levels guide your decisions — wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly.
🔎Fundamental focus:
With FOMC later today, sharp moves in both directions are likely. A pullback would be healthy at this stage and could offer better buying opportunities.
GBPUSD Challenges 1.38 resistance Ahead of FOMCFrom a longer-term perspective, GBPUSD is challenging the upper boundary of the consolidation range that has extended between July 2023 and January 2026, just below the 1.38 mark. This structure sits above a broader trend extending from the 2007 highs, positioning the pair toward a longer-term bullish bias should the 1.38 level clear.
The next levels in focus following a confirmed breakout stand near 1.40 and 1.4250, aligning with the 2021 highs as initial upside targets.
On the downside, should the DXY reassert bullish momentum by reclaiming the 97 and 98 levels, GBPUSD may rotate back into consolidation, exposing support levels at 1.35, 1.33, and 1.31 before another directional breakout materializes.
While Trump’s lack of concern continues to fuel extended drawdown risks for the dollar, contrarian indicators amid extreme market sentiment may signal the potential for a short-term rebound, pending confirmation from the upcoming FOMC tone.
- Razan Hilal
TESLA Holds Consolidation Ahead of FOMC, Earnings ReportsWhile Tesla posted revenue of $28.1B in the previous quarter, current expectations point to a decline toward $24.8B, driven by intensifying competition from BYD and weakening EV adoption rates from reduced incentives. Tesla’s price action has remained in consolidation below the 490 record high since October 2025, in line with rising growth risks as the company shifts strategic focus toward autonomy.
Looking at the Tesla chart on the monthly timeframe, we can see a large inverted bullish continuation head-and-shoulders pattern stretching from November 2021 to September 2024. The bullish bias can also be supported by a trendline connecting higher lows from April 2025 through January 2026.
If this pattern continues to play out, and if Tesla can overcome competitive pressure from BYD and broader EV adoption concerns, then a clean hold above 500 should open the way toward 560 first, and 660 in extended scenarios. Those upside targets also align with the 100% and 127% Fibonacci extensions measured from the April 2024 low → December 2024 high → April 2025 low.
On the downside, if earnings disappoint or we close back below the 400 mark, the bias shifts lower toward 348 and then 303, which remain key support zones.
- Razan Hilal
Gold (XAU/USD) – Bearish SignalSell Setup Entry: Current levels / around ~5,260–5,263 (post-support breakout on 5m chart)
Target: ~5,233–5,240 (lower structure / previous low area)
Invalidation: Sustained reclaim above 5,273
Reason: Clear break below key support zone + elevated crash risk heading into tonight's FOMC decision (potential USD strength or risk-off move on hawkish tone / no-cut confirmation).Monitor closely around announcement for volatility spike.
#Gold #XAUUSD #Trading #Breakout #FOMC #Fed #GoldCrash #TechnicalAnalysisNot financial advice — Purely technical observation from the chart. Trading carries very high risk, especially around FOMC. DYOR and manage risk strictly.
XAUUSD: Fed-driven pullback risk toward 5100🛠 Technical Analysis: On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD is still trending higher inside a rising price channel, but price is now stalling at the upper boundary and a key resistance area around 5,270–5,300. The recent impulse candle suggests strong momentum, yet the move is extended and vulnerable to a “false breakout” or rejection from the resistance zone. The 5,280 level is the near-term pivot: a clean breakdown back below this area would confirm a correction scenario. The first downside objective sits at the marked demand zone near 5,085, which also aligns with the nearest structural support. If selling pressure accelerates, the next larger support zones below (including the 4,900 area) become relevant as deeper pullback targets. A sustained hold above resistance and continuation higher would delay the correction and keep the bullish channel expansion in play.
———————————————
❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL)
———————————————
➡️ Entry Point: Sell on a rejection/false-break at 5,270–5,300 followed by a confirmed move back below 5,280
🎯 Take Profit: 5,100–5,085 (extended target: 4,900 support zone)
🔴 Stop Loss: 5,361.5
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
How to Trade FOMC Days – Smart Money FrameworkFOMC days consistently produce some of the most volatile price movements in the market. The key is not predicting the news, but understanding how liquidity behaves around it. Below is a structured approach based on Smart Money Concepts.
1. Before the Release
Price typically consolidates and builds liquidity on both sides of the range.
Key steps:
Mark previous day’s high/low
Identify Asia range liquidity
Note premium/discount zones
Avoid early trades — the market often engineers traps before the announcement
2. During the Release (14:00–14:30 ET)
This is the most dangerous window.
Spreads widen
Slippage increases
Algo-driven spikes invalidate technical setups
The highest‑probability decision is to stay flat and observe.
3. After the Release
This is where the clean setups form.
Look for:
A sweep of a key high/low
A clear market structure shift
Retracement into an FVG, order block, or breaker
Targeting the next liquidity pool
This post‑news phase often delivers the most controlled and directional move of the day.
4. Markets Most Affected
USD pairs
Gold (XAUUSD)
Indices (US500, NAS100)
DXY for directional bias
Summary
FOMC is not about predicting the rate decision. It’s about letting liquidity do its job and trading the reaction, not the release. Patience during the chaos leads to clarity afterward.
⚠️ Disclaimer – DYOR
This idea is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects a personal interpretation of price action and smart money concepts.
Always do your own research before making trading decisions. Markets are volatile and carry risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
USD/CHF at 0.76 pre-FOMC amid dollar weakness: Break or bounce?The US dollar is crumbling, and USD/CHF is testing major psychological support at 0.7600. With the Greenback facing a crisis of confidence from political chaos, fiscal uncertainty, and tonight’s FOMC, could this be the final flush to a long-term 0.7370 target?
We analyse the relentless breakdown in USD/CHF ahead of a critical FOMC meeting and a looming US government shutdown. We map out why the de-dollarisation trade is gaining momentum and how tonight’s Fed decision could trigger the next leg down.
Key topics
The crisis of confidence : Why Trump’s erratic policy threats (tariffs, Fed independence) and an 80% chance of a government shutdown by Friday are crushing the dollar to 4-year lows.
FOMC preview : Markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a hold, but the risk lies in the tone. A dovish surprise (or Trump nominating a new chair in the following days) could shatter the 0.76 support, while a hawkish hold might trigger a short squeeze to 0.7700.
Technical analysis (daily & 4H)
Impulse wave 3 : The drop from 0.9197 is a powerful impulse. We might be in a Wave 3 extension targeting 0.7220 - 0.7374 (the 100% macro extension).
Oversold RSI bounce : With daily RSI bouncing off 23, a short-term consolidation or corrective Wave 4 is probable.
Resistance zones : Immediate resistance at 0.7700 (23.6% Fib & psychological level). As long as we hold below this, the bias remains bearish.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Trade idea : Prefer a dovish breakdown below 0.76, aligning with the weak dollar narrative. Any counter-trend longs targeting 0.77 might be short-lived ahead or after the Fed Chair's speech.
Are you shorting the breakdown or eyeing a hawkish bounce? Let us know in the comments!
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Wednesday Jan 28, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Wednesday Jan 28, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
🧠 AI Confirmation Day
MSFT earnings validate AI spend with positive read-through for NVDA AMD PLTR and the Nasdaq
🏥 Managed Care Shockwave
UNH collapse on Medicare pricing pressures HUM CVS and drags the Dow
🧍 Consumer Confidence Divergence
Confidence plunges despite index highs, widening the gap between markets and households
🥈 Silver Volatility Reset
Silver pulls back from recent highs as margin changes cool leverage while the trend stays in focus
🏦 Fed Decision Risk
FOMC decision and Powell presser dominate flows as markets parse tone on inflation and cuts
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Wednesday Jan 28 ET
2:00 PM
- FOMC Interest Rate Decision
2:30 PM
- Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #MSFT #AI #Healthcare #Silver #Macro #Markets #Stocks #Options
$SPY & $SPX — Weekly Market-Moving Headlines Jan 26–30, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Weekly Market-Moving Headlines Jan 26–30, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
🥈 Silver Squeeze Momentum
Silver holds above 100 as industrial shortage and safe-haven demand collide
📣 Mega Cap Earnings Gauntlet
Microsoft Meta Tesla Apple Amazon earnings drive the AI narrative for the entire tape
🏦 Fed Week Volatility
FOMC decision and Powell press conference set the rate path into month end
💻 Chip Supply Reality Check
Intel shock keeps focus on capacity constraints across AI hardware supply chains
📉 End of Month Positioning
January flows and de-risking risk increase after major catalysts land
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data and Events ET
Monday Jan 26
- 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders Nov delayed: 4.5%
- 8:30 AM Durable Goods ex Transportation Nov delayed
Tuesday Jan 27
- 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jan: 90.0
Wednesday Jan 28
- 2:00 PM FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- 2:30 PM Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Thursday Jan 29
- 8:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims Jan 24: 209K
- 8:30 AM U.S. Trade Deficit Nov delayed: -45.1B
- 8:30 AM U.S. Productivity Q3 revised: 4.9%
- 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Nov delayed: 0.2%
- 10:00 AM Factory Orders Nov delayed: 1.1%
Friday Jan 30
- 8:30 AM PPI Dec delayed: 0.3%
- 8:30 AM Core PPI Dec delayed
- 8:30 AM PPI YoY
- 8:30 AM Core PPI YoY
- 9:45 AM Chicago Business Barometer PMI Jan: 42.0
- 1:30 PM St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech
- 5:00 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #PPI #Macro #Earnings #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Options
Trading the Fed: How Interest Rates Move BitcoinAs we approach the critical January 27-28 FOMC meeting, the crypto market is holding its breath. If you have been trading Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) through the volatility of 2025 and into early 2026, you’ve likely noticed a frustrating pattern: technical analysis works perfectly one day, and fails completely the next.
Why? Because in the current economic cycle, Price action is no longer just about Halving Cycles—it is about the Cost of Money.
Today, we are stripping away the noise to master the single most important correlation in modern finance: The Federal Reserve vs. Bitcoin.
1. The Mechanism: Why Rates dictate the Trend
Many retail traders view the Fed Funds Rate as just a boring number. But "Smart Money" (Institutions, Hedge Funds) views it as the "Risk-Free Hurdle."
Here is the simple logic institutional algorithms use:
The "Risk-Free" Choice: When the Fed raises interest rates, you can buy a US Treasury Bond and get a guaranteed, risk-free return (currently ~4% in short-term yields).
The "Risky" Choice: To justify buying a volatile asset like Bitcoin, the potential return must be significantly higher than that 4%.
The Cycle of Money:
Low Interest Rates (0-2%): Banks and Funds can borrow money for almost free. Since Bonds pay nothing (0%), they are forced to chase "Risk Assets" like Tech Stocks and Crypto to find profit.
Result: Bitcoin Moons (e.g., The 2020-2021 Bull Run).
High Interest Rates (3.5%+): Borrowing money is expensive. Why risk millions on Bitcoin when you can get a guaranteed 4% yield for doing nothing? Capital flows OUT of Crypto and INTO Bonds.
Result: Liquidity dries up, and Bitcoin chops or bleeds (e.g., The 2022 Crash).
2. Historical Context: Proof in the Charts
To understand where we are going in 2026, we have to look at the undeniable proof from the last 4 years.
2020 (The Expansion): The Fed cut rates to 0%. The Dollar Index (DXY) crashed. Bitcoin went from $3,000 to $69,000. This was "Easy Mode."
2022 (The Contraction): The Fed aggressively raised rates from 0% to 5%+. The Dollar soared. Bitcoin collapsed from $69,000 to $15,000. This was "Hard Mode."
The Lesson: You cannot have a sustained "Super Cycle" in crypto while the Fed is aggressively tightening or keeping rates restrictively high.
3. The Current Standoff (January 2026)
We are currently in a unique "limbo" phase.
The Fed Funds Rate is hovering in the 3.50% – 3.75% range. While this is lower than the 2023 peaks, it is still high enough to restrict the flow of fresh liquidity into the crypto market.
The Problem: Inflation has proven "sticky" around 3%.
The Result: The Fed refuses to cut rates aggressively. This leaves Bitcoin stuck in a choppy range below the $90k region (hypothetical). Until the "faucet" of cheap money is turned back on, Bitcoin is fighting an uphill battle.
4. The Indicator to Watch: DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
If you are trading Bitcoin without looking at the DXY chart, you are trading blind. Bitcoin is priced in Dollars (BTC/USD). This creates a mathematical see-saw:
When the Dollar gets Stronger (DXY Up): It takes fewer dollars to buy 1 Bitcoin. Price goes Down.
When the Dollar gets Weaker (DXY Down): It takes more dollars to buy 1 Bitcoin. Price goes Up.
Your Trading Signal: During the FOMC meeting, keep the DXY chart open on the 15-minute timeframe.
If DXY spikes above 103.50: The market interprets the Fed as "Hawkish." Sell or Short.
If DXY drops below 102.00: The market sees "weakness." This is the green light for a Bitcoin rally.
5. Actionable Strategy: "Don't Fight the Fed"
We are currently in a "Trader's Market," not a "Holder's Market." The "Up Only" phase is paused until rates drop significantly.
The Q1 2026 Playbook:
Sit on Your Hands During the Speech: Volatility during Jerome Powell’s speech (2:30 PM ET) is high-frequency algorithm noise. It is designed to liquidate over-leveraged traders. Stay flat (in cash) until the daily candle closes.
Watch the 2-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:US02Y ): This is the leading indicator. If the 2-Year yield starts dropping aggressively, it means the bond market "knows" cuts are coming. This is your signal to start accumulating Spot BTC.
Spot vs. Leverage: In a high-rate environment, funding rates on Perpetual Futures can eat your profits alive. Stick to Spot Bitcoin to avoid the "chop."
Conclusion
Bitcoin is technically bullish but macro-economically capped. The technology hasn't changed, but the monetary environment has.
Until the Fed signals a clear path to 3.0% or lower, we must respect the range.
Watch the DXY.
Watch the Yields.
And never fight the Fed.
GBPUSD | Breakout Watch from the ChannelCable’s tone has improved as UK inflation has stopped falling cleanly. December CPI ticked up to 3.4% y/y (from 3.2%), with services inflation still sticky (CPIH services 4.5% y/y), which can keep the market cautious about pricing aggressive BoE easing.
Technical lens: Price has been compressing inside a downward sloping channel after the prior leg higher, and we’re now pressing the upper channel line around the mid-1.36s. RSI is also pushing into the high-60s, which fits with “pressure building” rather than a clean mean-reversion setup. A sustained push through the channel top would put the next obvious magnet at the 1.41–1.42 supply zone marked on the chart.
Catalysts: The next FOMC meeting is 27–28 January (press conference on the 28th), which is the near-term volatility trigger for USD legs. On the UK side, the latest CPI print firming up keeps the “higher-for-longer vs slower cuts” debate alive into the BoE’s 5 February decision.
US30 (Dow Jones) – 1-Hour Timeframe Tradertilki AnalysisMy friends, greetings,
I have prepared a US30 analysis for you.
My friends, if the US30-Dow Jones index manages to close a candle above the levels of 48392.3-48151.0, I will open a buy position and target the 48,900 level.
At the moment, the most important levels are 48392.3-48151.0. Expecting an upward move without breaking above these levels does not seem logical right now.
My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you. Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.🙏✨
Thank you to all my friends who support me with their likes.❤️
SPXL: The Path to $252 Amid Geopolitical JoltsSPXL: The Path to $252 Amid Geopolitical Jolts
As we move through the first week of 2026, SPXL is showing signs of a coiled spring. After trading near the $230 level, the technical setup suggests a potential squeeze to $252. The speed of this move likely hinges on how the market digests the dramatic news out of South America and the Federal Reserve's first moves of the year.
The Venezuela Catalyst
The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro have introduced a massive geopolitical wildcard. While such events often trigger "risk-off" sentiment, the market’s reaction has been surprisingly resilient.
Energy Impact: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. Any "breakout" news regarding the stabilization of their energy infrastructure could lead to a massive relief rally in U.S. equities as energy costs anticipate a long-term decline.
The Timeline: If the market views this as a definitive turning point for global energy stability, we could see the $252 squeeze materialize by the end of January. However, if the situation leads to prolonged regional instability, expect a period of consolidation, pushing my target arrival to late February.
Fed Actions: The January Pivot?
The FOMC meeting on January 27–28 is the next major hurdle. With the market already pricing in a "measured approach" to easing, any dovish tilt from the Fed—perhaps acknowledging that geopolitical risks require a more supportive liquidity environment—could be the fuel for the SPXL breakout. Conversely, a "hawkish hold" might favor the late February consolidation path.
SPXL vs. SPX: Understanding the Engine
It is vital for traders to distinguish between SPXL and the SPX (S&P 500 Index).
3x Daily Leverage: SPXL seeks to return 300% of the daily performance of the S&P 500. If the SPX rises 1%, SPXL aims to rise 3%.
Compounding & Decay: Because the leverage resets daily, SPXL is subject to "volatility decay." In a choppy, sideways market, SPXL can lose value even if the SPX remains flat.
The "Squeeze" Factor: Because of its leveraged nature, SPXL moves much faster than the broad market. A move to $252 represents a roughly 10% gain from current levels, which would only require a ~3.3% move in the underlying S&P 500.
Bottom Line
Watch the $232 resistance level. A clean break above this, fueled by positive developments in Venezuela or a dovish Fed, puts $252 on the map for a January sprint. Otherwise, pack your patience for a late February arrival.
NZDUSD Breakout and Potential Retrace!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are closely monitoring NZDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.57600 zone. NZDUSD has successfully broken out of its previous downtrend, signaling a shift in market structure. The pair is now in a corrective pullback, approaching a key retracement level and the 0.57600 support-turned-resistance zone, which may act as a strong demand area for bullish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, driven by growing expectations of a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, continues to support USD-based downside moves. This macro backdrop favors risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar, reinforcing the bullish bias on NZDUSD.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Gold Pullback Toward 4,420 as Dollar Weakness Persists!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,420 zone.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains firmly within a broader uptrend and is currently undergoing a controlled corrective phase. Price is approaching the 4,420 area, a key confluence zone combining trend support with a former support/resistance level — an area where buyers have previously stepped in.
On the fundamental side, the backdrop continues to favor Gold. The Federal Reserve’s December rate cut has reinforced downside pressure on the US Dollar, while incoming data keeps the door open for another potential rate cut at the January FOMC, further weighing on USD expectations. This persistent weak-dollar bias remains structurally supportive for Gold.
Additionally, concerns around Federal Reserve independence and rising political and geopolitical tensions are contributing to renewed safe-haven demand, providing an additional tailwind for the metal.
As long as price holds above the 4,420 region, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with pullbacks viewed as potential continuation opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Don't forget to boost the post and leave your opinion on the comment section.
Trade safe,
Joe
AUDUSD surges on hawkish RBA mins! Breakout or double top?AUDUSD is surging towards the 0.67 handle following hawkish RBA minutes that discussed a rate hike in 2026. However, with a potential double top forming and RSI divergence looming, we face a critical decision point: breakout to new 2025 highs or a sharp reversal, or both?
In this video, we analyse the RBA's hawkish stance vs. the Fed's easing path and what that means for the Australian dollar. We then map out the technicals around 0.6710, with a breakout strategy targeting 0.68–0.69 as well as a bearish reversal idea if momentum fails.
Key drivers
Hawkish RBA : Minutes released today show the RBA board discussed raising rates in 2026 to contain inflation, a contrast to the Fed's easing cycle. This divergence is the primary driver lifting AUD.
Double top risk : Price is approaching the 0.6700–0.6710 zone, a major resistance level and a prior high. Failure to break higher could confirm a double top pattern.
RSI divergence : On the daily chart, price is making new highs while the RSI remains below its previous peak (hidden bearish divergence). This warns of waning momentum and a potential pullback, though RIS is not in overbought territory just yet.
Upside targets : A clean daily close above 0.6710 invalidates the divergence and opens the door to 0.6758 (Fib extension), 0.6800 (psychological), and 0.6910 (61.8% projection).
Downside support : If 0.6700/10 sees a rejection, watch for a pullback to 0.6650 and the major support at 0.6594 below 0.6600. Losing this level confirms a deeper correction toward 0.6550.
Are you buying the breakout above 0.6700 or selling the double top? Share your trade plan in the comments and follow for more FX analysis.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
S&P 500 "tech wreck": Double top breakdown targets 6,500?The S&P 500 has sliced through its 50-day moving average and paused by 50% Fibonacci retracement following a fourth straight day of losses. With a confirmed double top at 6,930 and momentum shifting bearish, we’re eyeing a move back to the range lows at 6,500.
In this video, we break down the impact of the "tech wreck" and Fed Governor Waller’s mixed signals on 2026 rate cuts, which have triggered a risk-off sentiment. Then, we outline a short setup selling the bounce into 6,765–6,800, targeting the November 21 lows.
Key drivers
Technical Breakdown : The index has broken below its 50-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement (6,725), confirming bearish momentum from a double top structure.
"Tech Wreck" & Macro : High-value tech stocks and crypto sold off sharply yesterday, exacerbated by Fed Governor Waller’s caution on "hurrying up" rate cuts despite inflation risks.
Range Structure : The S&P 500 is trading within a rectangular range between ~6,930 (highs) and 6,500–6,520 (lows). We are currently in the middle of this range with a downside bias.
Short Setup : We are looking to sell a retracement to the 38.2% Fib / prior low (~6,765–6,800) rather than chasing the breakdown due to the 4-hour RSI shift.
Trade Plan : Entry around 6,765, stop loss above 6,830 (23.6% Fib), targets at 6,600 and ultimately 6,500. Risk/reward is favourable at 1.7+.
Are you selling the tech sell-off or waiting for support? Share your levels in the comments and follow for more technical swing setups.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.






















