08/09/25 Weekly OutlookIt's CPI week is here once again, which means we're one week before FOMC and a likely interest rate cut by the FED, maybe the last week of choppy sideways action before the next leg up in Q4?
Last week BTC stopped just shy of the weekly high before settling around midpoint. Bullish structure throughout the week from start to finish reclaiming much of the losses from the week previous to that. As I have pointed out in the past late August & early September have historically poor returns and so far this year has followed the trend, down -13.6% from the highs of mid August.
All of this is to say the stars seem to be aligning once again for a repeat of previous cycles, a slow and negative August into September, print a local bottom and the next leg up/continuation higher in Q4 boosted by cheaper borrowing. There is even a growing chance of a 50bps cut on September 17th which would really fuel a risk-on surge going into the end of the year.
For this week I'm not overly concerned about CPI just because I believe the focus is on FOMC the week after. A reclaim of $113,500 before this weeks close may kickstart an earlier push by the bulls as currently that is the level keeping BTC down.
$104,500 is the 1D 200 EMA, a level untested since April, A retest as support before FOMC would be a great place to go long from IMO. Until either of those scenarios play out it's just noise and chop.
Good luck this week everybody!
