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FOMC

DXY Bulls Ready — Can Powell Spark the Rally?📊 DXY Pre-FOMC Outlook In my previous analysis released on Monday, I expected the Dollar Index to fill the gap around the 98.60 zone and range below the key red line at 99.429. Now, with less than 8 hours left until the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, it’s time to take a closer look at tonight’s event and what it could mean for the markets. From a purely technical perspective — setting the news aside — the Dollar Index looks ready to break through the crucial 100 level and kick off a strong bullish rally. However, recent political pressure from Trump urging rate cuts, along with visible tension between him and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has created uncertainty. If it weren’t for these conflicting signals, I would’ve confidently expected a clean breakout above 100. As much as I enjoy trading news-driven events, I’ll likely stay out of the market tonight and observe from the sidelines. The setup is tempting, but the dual narratives make it risky. That said — if you ask for my final take — I believe the stage is fully set for a bullish dollar and a corresponding drop in gold, EUR, GBP, and other major assets. Let’s see how it plays out. 👀💥
TVC:DXY
by Mehrasfx
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. It’s been an aggressive month on the markets especially this week which has been testing for traders due to the extended movement on gold. We’ve managed to stay ahead of the game and although we missed the move downside, we’ve capture scalps up and down trading it on an intra-day basis rather than a swing. Looking at the 4H chart, we can see we have support forming at the 3310 level which is the key level for this week and will need to be broken to go lower. If we can flip the 3334 resistance, price should attempt higher into the 3355-60 region which is where we may settle in preparation for NFP. on Friday This is the level that needs to be watched for the daily close, as a close above will confirm the structure and pattern test which can form a reversal if not breached. Now, here is the flip! We’re still sitting below the daily red box but we know this break does give a retracement and with sentiment long, it may not be a complete retracement again. Here 3345-50 is the red box to watch and as above, if not breached, we may see a rejection here which will confirm no reversal for higher and, potentially a further decline into the 3270-5 regions for the end of the month and quarter. Pivot – 3323-6 RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3335 for 3338, 3340, 3345, 3347 and 3357 in extension of the move Break below 3320 for 3310, 3306, 3302, 3297 and 3393 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
34
BTC – Pre-FOMC consolidation, bullish momentum, key zones__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Primary uptrend confirmed on all swing timeframes (daily to 1H). Active consolidation below major resistance (119650–120247), no capitulation or massive selling signals at this stage. Major Supports / Resistances : Main Supports: 116950, then 114732. Structural invalidation if daily close below 114K or low <110K. Key Resistances: 119650–120247 (recent block), then 123218. Clean breakout >125K targets next stat zone at 141K. Volumes : Transactional flows remain healthy, no anomalies or distribution events; normal volumes with a few impulsive bursts. No panic or selling climax detected. Multi-timeframe behavior : Uptrend alignment from 1D to 2H; short-term divergence (MTFTI “Down” on 30m/15m/5m) indicates only breath/consolidation pre-macro event (FOMC). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Medium/long-term bullish bias, confirmed, with no behavioral excess or visible structural weakness. Opportunities : Pullbacks to major supports (116950–114732) offer strategic accumulation. Potential for adding exposure on clear breakout above 125K with volume confirmation. Risk Areas : Post-FOMC flushes, anticipated high volatility until Thursday morning, $115–123K range still active. Tactical stop loss below 114.5K, structural recalibration <110K. Macro Catalysts : FOMC tonight (20:00 Paris): status quo expected, but markets highly sensitive to Powell’s statement. Widened spreads, max volatility expected within the following 2 hours. Action Plan : Favor patience on breakout, accumulate on retracement, keep stops disciplined. Avoid aggressive scalping until post-FOMC volatility peak fades. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily): Uptrend confirmed up to dense resistance zone 119800–123200. Solid momentum, no excess on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator or volume. Key Supports: 116950, 114732. 12H/6H/4H: Structured consolidation below 120247–119650. No behavioral warnings; markets strong, healthy liquidity. Accumulation-distribution rhythm without extremes. 2H/1H: Sideways, no sell-off or euphoria; potential consolidation before breakout. Major supports unchanged. 30min/15min: Noticeable short-term divergence (“Down”). Micro bearish setup, possible loss of short-term momentum before FOMC. Summary: Broadly bullish swing trend with consolidation below resistance, reinforcement possible on breakout; short term fragile until macro moves (Fed) are digested. Patience is key ahead of FOMC: prioritize accumulation on major pullback, keep stops disciplined, and avoid intraday over-trading unless clear exhaustion signals emerge. __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy from 1D to 1H, intact sector support, positive structural bias. ISPD DIV: Neutral across all timeframes: no excess, no behavioral climax. On-chain/macro: 97% of holders still in profit; market absorbed stress test ($9B sell-off); only moderate euphoria, consistent with late bull phase but not exhausted. Swing validation if >125K. Tactical stop <114.5K; full capitulation <110K. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Gold’s Biggest Day of 2025: Collapse or New High Incoming?🟡 Gold Pre-FOMC Update | Patience Paid Off In my previous analysis released on Monday, we highlighted the significance of the 3310 key red level on gold. I mentioned that if we got a daily candle close below this zone, it could trigger further downside. That scenario didn’t play out — price closed above 3310, and that’s exactly why we stayed out of any short positions. No guessing, no forcing. Just patience. On the flip side, I also said we need a daily close above 3350 to even consider going long. And as you can see, for the past two days, price has been ranging tightly between 3310 and 3330 — with relatively low trading volume across the board. After 9 years of optimizing this strategy, one core principle remains unchanged: 🛡️ Capital protection and maximum risk control always come first. And I can confidently say — those filters are working beautifully. I hope you’re benefiting from this approach too. Now technically speaking, everything is lining up for a bullish DXY and bearish gold — But tonight’s FOMC meeting and Powell vs. Trump drama will be the final trigger. Let’s watch closely. Smart trading is patient trading. 🧠⚖️ 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer:This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mehrasfx
DXY Rebound Pulls EURUSD Below 1.16Following the DXY’s significant rebound off a 17-year trendline, the EURUSD has broken below a trendline that connected all consecutive lows of 2025. This opens the door to further bearish risks, with key support levels now in sight. If the pair closes cleanly below 1.15, 1.1440 and 1.1380, downside extensions could reach 1.12 and 1.11, respectively. On the upside, a close back above the 2025 trendline and the 1.18 mark could reinstate bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the 2021 highs between 1.20 and 1.23. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
USDCAD Rebound Steadies Ahead of BOC and FOMC MeetingsAligned with the DXY holding above the 96 support and approaching the 100-resistance, the USDCAD is maintaining a rebound above the 1.3540 level. It has maintained a hold beyond the boundaries of a contracting downtrend across 2025 and is aiming for the 1.38 resistance to confirm a steeper bullish breakout. A sustained move above 1.38, which connects lower highs from June and July, while the RSI holds below the 50 neutral line, could extend gains toward the 1.40 level. From the downside, should the breakout above 1.38 fail, the pair may remain trapped within the consolidation range extending from June, with initial support seen at 1.3580. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
DXY Surge Pressures Currency Market in Volatile Market WeekThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has held its rebound off historical support zones on both the price chart and the RSI indicator throughout July. The monthly RSI is bouncing off a support line extending between the troughs of 2008 and 2020. Meanwhile, price action is rebounding from a support trendline that connects the lows of 2008, 2014, and 2021, within the 96–94 zone. Bearish Scenario: A solid close below this support zone may confirm a long-term bearish signal, potentially pushing the index toward the 94 and 90 levels. Bullish Scenario: A confident move above 100 and 103 could signal a reversal in the currency market, potentially leading the DXY back toward the mid-range of the long-standing channel between 105 and 107, originating from the 2008 lows. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold remains in a bearish structure, consolidating in a narrow range after the sharp drop earlier this week. Price is trading around 3,330, testing the 3,334 resistance zone while still below the 200MA (3,362), which may act as dynamic resistance. As long as price stays below 3,348–3,362, the bias remains to the downside, with a break below 3,309 likely exposing the 3,289–3,267 support zone. A clean reclaim above 3,334- 3,348 would neutralize the immediate downside pressure and open the path back toward 3,373–3,387. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: ‣ 3,334 ‣ 3,348 ‣ 3,362 ‣ 3,373 ‣ 3,387 Support: ‣ 3,309 ‣ 3,289 ‣ 3,267 ‣ 3,241 🔎Fundamental Focus – FOMC The FOMC rate decision and Powell’s press conference later today will be the key driver for gold. Expect sharp volatility and potential whipsaws around the release. ⚠️ Manage risk carefully, avoid chasing initial spikes, and wait for clear direction once the event dust settles.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
$BTC Daily OutlookDaily Chart Today’s close printed a small bearish doji; visually bearish but still another inside-day that keeps BTC boxed between the High-Volume Node / v-Level cluster at $116 860-$123 300. Holding $116 860 remains critical; lose it on a daily close and price can easily slide to the weekly breakout shelf near $111 960. We are now 16 days inside this balance. Per Auction-Market-Theory rule #5, the longer price churns at the edge, the more resting liquidity is absorbed, eventually a decisive push will follow. If buyers defend $116 860 again, the path opens toward range high $123 300 and the prior ATH; if they fail, expect a fast flush to the weekly V-Level. Footprint Read Value Area High and Low span the full candle, with the POC parked mid-range, classic two-sided trade. Delta finished negative and the heaviest prints sit at session lows: sellers hit the bid hard, yet could not follow through. That absorption leaves shorts vulnerable to a squeeze if new selling momentum doesn’t appear quickly. Fundamental Pulse – Week Ahead ETF Flows: Spot-Bitcoin ETFs booked three consecutive inflow days to close last week (+$180 M net). Sustained demand under the range supports the bullish case. Macro Data: U.S. FOMC & Federal Fund Rates prints for this week; expect more volatility starting from tomorrow. Game Plan Primary bias stays long while daily candles close above $116 860; upside trigger is a clean for now or shorts squeeze toward $123 300. If $116 860 breaks with volume, prepare for a quick liquidity hunt into the weekly shelf at $111 960, where we reassess for swing longs. Intraday: I’ll monitor the Intraday Chart on tomorrow's High impact events and look for best opportunities across the board. Alt window: a fresh downtick in BTC Dominance could spark rotation; watch high-Open Interest majors if BTC ranges.
by BastDeCode
Multi-timeframe analysis, strong momentum, FOMC risk/reward plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong momentum and bullish consensus confirmed across all timeframes. Key support/resistance : 114k–116k (critical support), 123k (major pivot). Healthy organic volume , no extreme peaks except isolated moments (30min/15min). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Dominant bullish signal, neutral only on 15min. Multi-timeframe structure : Perfect alignment daily/4H/2H/1H, caution on 15/30min (slight inflection but no abnormal divergence). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Structural bull market, intact dynamic. Opportunities : Tactical buys on pullbacks (114–116k), swing on breakout 123k. Risk areas : Below 114k = risk of invalidation, targets 111k–105k. Macro catalysts : FOMC imminent (high volatility expected), watch geopolitical tensions. Action plan : Favor swing/cautious trading ahead of FOMC, dynamic stops, act on first post-Powell trigger. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Active range 114k–123k; strong supports, momentum maintained; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strongly bullish. 12H/6H/4H : Clean bullish structure, no excesses or divergence; price sits within major horizontal clusters. 2H/1H : Healthy impulse/correction phases; key intermediate supports 114.6k, 117.5k to watch. 30min/15min : Slightly weaker momentum but constructive microstructure, no immediate sell threat; localized volume spikes on support reactions. ISPD DIV : No behavioral stress observed throughout. Cross-timeframe summary : Bullish confluence dominant; caution on short-term reversals tied to FOMC and on-chain volatility spikes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-timeframe Cross Analysis & Decisional Rationale __________________________________________________________________________________ As long as BTC > 114k = bullish bias, buying pullbacks, swing target 123k. Active management post-FOMC strongly advised (enter/reduce after first H4 close). Increased volatility risk in case of Fed/geopolitical shock; mandatory stops. Sector momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) and volume underpin the bullish case unless exogenous alert. Invalidation below 114k = prudent, neutral, or tactical shorts towards 111k–105k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro, On-chain & Economic Calendar __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC July 29th : pivotal event, any surprise = strong intraday move (BTC sensitive to Powell speech). US Macro: strong fundamentals but caution on trade war, inflation "contained." On-chain : realized cap BTC >$1T, high open interest in derivatives = leveraged risk, beware speculative altcoin excess. Global risk : market remains buyer until bearish Fed/geopolitical shock; swing trading favored, tight stops recommended. __________________________________________________________________________________ Action plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Favor buying/reloading on pullbacks to 114.6k–116k (stop <114k). Break above 123k = bull confirmation, further extension likely to 126–128k depending on FOMC outcome. Prioritize strict risk management; monitor liquidity/supports on macro/on-chain volatility peaks. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Countdown to Powell’s rate decision: What to watch WednesdayFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to begin cutting interest rates. Markets and analysts overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady this Wednesday. But what if the political heat is becoming too much to bear, and Powell and the Fed board advocate for a cut this week? Some Fed governors, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , have already signaled support for an early cut. FX pairs to watch USD/JPY: This pair remains highly sensitive to yield differentials and broader risk sentiment. However, any hawkish resistance or emphasis on data dependency may keep the pair supported, especially if risk appetite holds. EUR/USD: The euro has shown relative strength in recent sessions, but the pair has been hit by the announcement of the trade deal struck between the EU and US. If the Fed clearly signals it's not ready to ease, the USD could regain even ground.
by BlackBull_Markets
Very important Economic Calendar 28.07–01.08: FOMC, BTC, tariffsThis Week (July 28 – August 1) — the final week of the month is packed with key events. Save this post and forward it to 3 friends 😉 📋 High volatility ahead — as the Fed’s key "threelemma" (inflation, labor market, tariffs) comes into focus. Several important macro releases are scheduled — each one matters on its own, but combined, they can move markets sharply. 🗓 Monday (July 28) ▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 1): upcoming US Treasury borrowing needs ▪️ 16:00 UTC – 2Y & 5Y bond auctions – key indicator of market expectations ahead of FOMC 🔗 Strong demand = stronger rate cut expectations 🗓 Tuesday (July 29) ▪️ 12:30 UTC – US GDP (Q2 estimate) ▪️ 16:00 UTC – 7Y bond auction 🗓 Wednesday (July 30) ▪️ 12:15 UTC – ADP employment report – early signal ahead of NFP ▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 2): breakdown of Treasury borrowing ▪️ 18:00 UTC – FOMC rate decision (no change expected – 4.5%) + Powell’s press conference 🗓 Thursday (July 31) ▪️ 12:30 UTC – PCE inflation (June) – Fed’s favorite inflation gauge 🗓 Friday (August 1) ▪️ 12:30 UTC – Nonfarm Payrolls (employment) ▪️ 13:00 UTC – ISM Manufacturing Index (July) ▪️ 13:00 UTC – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ▪️ All day – July auto sales data 🚨 LIBERATION DAY 2.0 Potentially the most impactful event of the week: the Trump administration will begin sending “tariff letters” to ~200 countries. This marks the end of the temporary tariff relief (April 8 – August 1). Markets expect a new wave of global trade tension — timing is still uncertain. 💡 Summary: Every day brings a new potential driver. Markets are nervous and highly reactive — sharp moves are likely... CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently being held above $117K, but Wednesday and Friday bring high risk of "news bombs".
OKX:BTCUSD
by P_S_trade
Strategic Multi-Swing Analysis – Pivots and Post-FOMC Outlook__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Sustained bullish momentum on BTCUSDT across all swing timeframes. ➤ Key supports: 116400–117400 (likely rebound), major supports: 105047–114674. ➤ Main resistances: 119000–120000 (short term), major ceiling at 123240 (1D/12H). ➤ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: "Strong Buy" signal – tech sector leadership confirmed. ➤ Volumes normal to moderately elevated, no excess or behavioral anomaly (ISPD "Neutral"). ➤ No euphoria or capitulation flags; general wait-and-see attitude, FOMC event ahead. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Strategic bullish bias remains as long as 116400/117400 supports hold. ➤ Opportunity window: buy pullbacks towards 117400–116400 with tight stops; clear invalidation below 115900. ➤ Risks: FOMC-induced volatility, increased leverage on alts, potential capitulation if key support breaks. ➤ Catalysts: FOMC communication, geopolitical context (no immediate threat), background risk-off climate not yet triggered. ➤ Action plan: Prioritize post-event reaction over anticipation; maintain strict technical protection. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D: Uptrend confirmed. Price above all major supports. Strong resistance at 123240, key support at 105047, normal volumes, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator "Strong Buy", ISPD "Neutral". 12H: Bullish bias. Resistance cluster 120002–123240. Intermediate supports 114674/111949. Momentum/volume supported, no excesses. 6H: Bullish near range top, supports at 114674/111949, ceiling at 120002–123240. Solid Risk On / Risk Off Indicator. 4H–2H: Up momentum, resistance 119003–120002–123240, supports 116474/117800. Moderate/normal volumes. 1H: Strong uptrend, thick resistance at 119000–120000, immediate supports 117800/116474. Slight volume uptick ahead of FOMC. 30min–15min: Resistance 119003–120000 (~H4 pivot). Intraday support 117400–117800/118200. Both Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and ISPD neutral, normal volumes, bullish as long as 116474 holds. SYNTHESIS: Broad bullish confluence on MTFTI from 1H to 1D/W. Supports at 116474/117400 are key pivots for maintaining bullish swing view. No behavioral alerts or extreme volumes. Consolidation/waiting likely before FOMC release – monitor reactions at pivot zones. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & macro Opportunities: Swing bullish scenario favored as long as key supports hold, buy strategic pullbacks, reverse on clear break. Main risk: FOMC volatility, altcoin excesses, possible post-announcement fake moves. Active monitoring essential. Macro/on-chain: No excess, BTC realized cap > $1T; aggressive rotation into alts, high open interest. No capitulation. Major on-chain & technical support aligned at 114500–118000. Action plan: Favor reactivity (post-FOMC), tight stops, progressive take profits at 119500–123240 resistance. No aggressive pre-positioning. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro catalysts overview FOMC expected: status quo, market sensitive to any Powell tone shift. Global macro: latent risk-off, geopolitical drivers closely watched. BTC stable, no technical disruptor in the immediate term. __________________________________________________________________________________ Final Decision Summary Robust technical setup with a clear bullish bias. Optimal entries on 117400-116400 pullbacks, stops below support, active management needed during FOMC. No on-chain excess; constructive background unless exogenous shock or resistance failure (119000–123240). Stay alert for breakout/reject pivot. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
GBPUSD: Sellers Are Taking ControlWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: GBPUSD GBP is weak vs USD. GU is heading lower with a bit of steam. The Monthly and the Weekly are still bullish, but the Daily and 4H indicate weakness. I would not entertain longs until I see a bullish BOS. Look for the CISD on the 4H in the beginning of the week, confirming sells are the way to go. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
14
XAUUSD (GOLD): Wait For The BOS! FOMC and NFP Looms!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of July 28 - June 1st. Gold is in the middle of a consolidation. Bas time to look for new entries! FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. Potential news drivers to move price in a decisive direction! Wait for a break of structure (BOS) either direction before entering a new trade. Be mindful that the Monthly is bullish, and the Weekly is neutral. The Daily is bearish, with 3 days of data indicating so. I am leaning towards this bias, as the draws on liquidity are near and obvious. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RT_Money
10
Bitcoin: Strategic Entry Plan on Pullback – 116k Buy Opportunity__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Bullish momentum across all higher timeframes (1H to 1W) supported by Risk On / Risk Off Indicator (Strong Buy). ➤ Major supports: 116,128 and 111,980 (multi-timeframe pivots). Key resistance at 123,218. ➤ Very high intraday volumes, pointing towards probable capitulation zones. ➤ Multi-timeframe behaviors: Technical rebound anticipated on the 116,128–115,600 zone, caution if 111,980 breaks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Global Bias: Bullish confirmed mid/long-term. ➤ Accumulation opportunities on key pullbacks near 116,128 and 111,980. ➤ Risk zone: sustained closes below 111,980 = invalidation of bullish outlook (target 105,100). ➤ Macro catalysts: FOMC meeting (July 29-30), heightened event-risk period. ➤ Action plan: favor entries after FOMC volatility resolution, stop-loss adjusted below 111,980. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis Daily (1D) : Compression under 123,218 resistance, primary bullish trend, no extreme signals. 12H : Healthy consolidation under resistance, no euphoria or panic, normal volumes. 6H : Price squeezed between major supports (116,128–111,980), uptrend confirmed. 4H : Institutional volumes on supports, favors technical rebound. 2H : Speculative rebound underway, confirmation needed for short-term bottom. 1H : Strong capitulation signal, record volumes, immediate retest of 116,128 support. 30min : Local oversold status, extreme sentiment, high technical reversal probability. 15min : Phase of panic likely ending, short-term rebound anticipated. Key Indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy on 1D–4H, neutral on 30min and 15min. ISPD DIV: Neutral to Buy (capitulation signaled on 1H+30min). Volumes: Very high at lows = capitulation + potential bottom. MTFTI: Up momentum above 1H, down on lower timeframes (30–5min). __________________________________________________________________________________ Cross Timeframe Synthesis High timeframe alignment confirms bullish bias, supported by buyer volumes. Key zone 116,128–111,980 = multi-timeframe support, tactical focus. Main risk: break of 111,980. __________________________________________________________________________________ Operational synthesis & macro context Bullish bias validated unless breakdown below 111,980. Tactical accumulation window on pullbacks, 1H confirmation needed. Volatility risk increases ahead/during FOMC, dynamic stop management essential. Altcoins fragile: extra caution if BTC triggers Risk Off. Calendar to watch: FOMC (July 29–30), Durable Goods (July 25). __________________________________________________________________________________ On-Chain (Glassnode) : BTC consolidates, no extreme signs; ETH outperforming but caution on alts (elevated leverage). __________________________________________________________________________________ ⏳ *Decision Recap for July 25, 2025, 10:56 CEST:* — BUY ZONE tactical at 116,128–115,600 (BTC), 1H confirmation required. — Stop-loss below 111,980 / Swing target >120,000–123,218. — Risks : Fed announcements, flushes on supports, altcoins at risk. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Will The Emerging Uncertainties Support Gold Ahead?Macro approach: - XAUUSD advanced this week, supported by broad-based US dollar weakness and reviving safe-haven demand amid rising global trade tensions. The yellow metal briefly reached a five-week high as investors sought safety following headlines of escalating US tariffs and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy direction. - Gold may remain well-supported if risk aversion persists, with upcoming global PMIs and further US trade developments set to guide market direction. Additional Fed commentary and central bank actions could trigger new volatility for XAUUSD throughout the week. Technical approach: - XAUUSD remains above both the EMA21 and EMA78, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum. The recent price action shows consolidation below the resistance at 3430 after rejecting the swing high. In contrast, higher lows have formed above the ascending trendline and the support at 3285. - If XAUUSD stays above the support at 3560, it may extend towards the previous swing high at around 3430 and open for another record high. - On the contrary, if the price drops below the support at 3560 and the ascending trendline, it may retreat toward the following support at 3165. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Bitcoin at 120,000: Decisive Breakout or Renewed Consolidation?__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strongly bullish on H1 and above; healthy consolidation below ATH. Supports/Resistances: 120,000 USDT (pivot resistance), 116,400–117,000 (major support), 104,000–110,000 (long-term support). Volumes: Normal, no anomaly nor climax detected. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy signal on all timeframes except very short term. Sectoral health confirmed. Multi-timeframe: Short-term bearish divergence on 15/30min, but robust technical structure above H1-D1. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias: Confirmed bullish across all timeframes; no major break detected. Opportunities: Strategic buys between 116,400–117,000 (pullback); confirmed breakout above 120,000 (target 130,000). Risk zones: Below 116,000 (potential correction to 112,000–104,000), false breakout at the top. Macro catalysts: Monitor Fed (next FOMC July 29-30), volatility on risk assets, geopolitical tensions. Action plan: Prioritize stop management, stay reactive ahead of macro events. Main scenario: buy confirmed pullback or validated breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D / 12H: Bullish structure intact but facing historical resistance (120k), strong supports in place (104–107k). 6H / 4H / 2H: Consolidation below resistance, no signs of exhaustion, tactical supports at 116,000–117,000. 1H / 30min / 15min: Weakness on shorter timeframes (sellers at top), confirmation of range polarization. No emotional excesses (ISPD DIV neutral), standard volumes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy except for very short-term fatigue. Summary: Multi-horizon bullish bias, technical and sectoral confluence for upside extension if clear breakout >120,000. Key support to hold at 116,400–117,000. Buy dips, ride breakout up to 130,000. Focus on risk management, flexibility advised as macro (Fed) nears. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key macro events to watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-07-18: Fed rate/volatility debate (Equity, Bonds, BTC). 2025-07-29: FOMC (potential pivot for risk assets). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & final summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: Bullish, to be validated at key levels, favor buying dips/breakouts. Risk management: Stop below 116,000, scale out progressively after 125k, reinforced protection ahead of FOMC. Opportunities: Pullback 116,400–117,000 (RR >3); H4/D breakout >120,000 targeting 130,000 (RR >2). Monitoring: Macro (Fed, geopolitics), dynamic management according to market response to news. Conclusion: A validated move above 120,000 projects target to 130,000 (next statistical/on-chain extension). Deep dips can be bought above 104,000. Do not loosen risk management as Fed date approaches.
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Full analysis: Buy the dip confirmed, 123240 key__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Very bullish across all timeframes; healthy compression above previous range. Key Supports: 115731–110481 USDT (structural, 1D to 1H). Major Resistances: 123240 USDT (multi-frame pivot). Volume: Normal, no climax or distribution — flows support the dominant bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong bullish HLTF signal; short-term neutral intraday. ISPD DIV: Neutral on all timeframes. Multi-TF Behavior: Bull rally, no excess, no euphoria or capitulation; market holds above key levels. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias: Strong bullish – MT/LT “buy on dips” confirmed. Opportunities: Progressive buying (117800, 115731 USDT), continuation on breakout >123240. Risk Zones: Possible pullback if clear rejection below 123240, swing invalidation if close <115731-111949. Macro Catalysts: Awaiting FOMC late July, short-term volatility limited. Watch geopolitics, extreme compression. Action Plan: Swing entry: 118300–119000. Stop: 115500. Target: 123200 then 126000+. R/R ≥2.5. Adjust risk management before FOMC. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Bullish momentum, supports at 105054/107939–110483. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strong buy, healthy volume, ISPD neutral. 12H: Consolidation below 123240, aligned supports 110481/115731, healthy structure. 6H: Confirmed momentum, continuous compression, no major sell signals. 4H: Rally structure robust, corrections limited and on support. 2H: Key support band 115731–110481, volume supports rebound, possible rotation below 123240. 1H: Rally confirmed, no panic selling detected. 30min/15min: Intraday consolidation, micro-range below resistance, stable volume, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator short-term neutral. Cross-TF summary: CLEAR momentum across all frames, no significant divergence, high-quality HTF supports. Next >123240 breakout likely fast and dynamic. __________________________________________________________________________________ Technical & Fundamental Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Synthesis: Broad bullish confirmation; buy-the-dip valid on 117800/115731, no aggressive downside signal. Swing positions above 118200 to be favored, expect acceleration after clear break of 123240. Stops & Invalidation: Swing stops below 115731/111949. Closing below = increased risk, “off” bias. Fundamentals: Optimal pre-FOMC swing window, US market in wait-and-see mode short term. Neutral/volatile geopolitics, no immediate shocks. On-chain: Heavy accumulation, historic compression, ETF flows strong (but on short pause). Imminent volatility squeeze possible either way. Recommendation: Actively monitor 123240 (breakout above), 115731 (below = increased caution). Adjust stops and sizing, remain highly responsive, especially as FOMC approaches. __________________________________________________________________________________
Long
by Ox_kali